wasnow215 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 43 minutes ago, Inudaw said: 18z GFS is a Richmond north and west storm. CHO to Fredricksburgh up into south eastern Maryland and DE. Yes- A good spread overall for RVA. Need it to get rolling AFTER the sun goes down Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 0z NAM makes little sense to me. But expected NAM hiccups anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Where you at RVA’ers? 12z runs looking snowy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 12z gfs Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dswx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I see different Kuchera snowfall amounts for the 12z GFS at pivotalweather: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018031012&fh=66&r=us_ma&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, dswx said: I see different Kuchera snowfall amounts for the 12z GFS at pivotalweather: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018031012&fh=66&r=us_ma&dpdt= You are correct -still good numbers. Thoughts on upcoming potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I've been following this threat for a while but I kept quiet since I didn't think it'll impact MBY lol. Today's NAM is sucking me in though... I'd set the bar at 2" for RIC and trace/coating for ORF. Gonna be tough to get accumulating snow since boundary layer seems very toasty with surface temps in mid 30s. At least the timing is getting better, it's supposed to be a Monday evening/night event for my neck of the woods now. AKQ also upped the totals area wide for their forecast snowfall graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I've been following this threat for a while but I kept quiet since I didn't think it'll impact MBY lol. Today's NAM is sucking me in though... I'd set the bar at 2" for RIC and trace/coating for ORF. Gonna be tough to get accumulating snow since boundary layer seems very toasty with surface temps in mid 30s. At least the timing is getting better, it's supposed to be a Monday evening/night event for my neck of the woods now. AKQ also upped the totals area wide for their forecast snowfall graphic.Might get a surprise our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dswx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 21 hours ago, wasnow215 said: You are correct -still good numbers. Thoughts on upcoming potential? At this point, Sunday afternoon, I am not impressed by anything I am seeing for metro RIC. :-( I'll be surprised at anything over an inch in the city, if that. Would love to be wrong. Obviously a better chance for a bit more west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 @SteveVa, this is a really weird graphic for the high end. 5"? Really? C'mon man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 7 hours ago, tramadoc said: @SteveVa, this is a really weird graphic for the high end. 5"? Really? C'mon man. Yeah, I found that weird too. They might be thinking that a deformation band could crush us as the low deepens and moves away while colder air starts filtering in. I'm not buying that solution at all tonight, I'd like to see HRRR or RAP show something to that effect. I guess it's fair game from AKQ mets since it is a possibility, and that map serves mostly as the worst-case scenario. Edit: Well they just updated the afd, there is the answer Depending on how the low tracks, it is not impossible that areas of SE VA and NE NC see more snow Mon evening, but confidence in that is very low, thus the advisory is in effect only for portions of the Piedmont where thermal profiles are at least marginally favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Some white rain looking to push into the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Some white rain looking to push into the area... Late for models but 3k NAM gives RVA 1-2” later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 30 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Late for models but 3k NAM gives RVA 1-2” later today doubtfull with the temps where they are at unless this really slows down or we get a real heavy burst here in Richmond ... Maybe we can squeeze out enough for a nice picture of snow on the grass/tree areas...The beach areas may get something before it really blows up ... So painfully close..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 27 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: doubtfull with the temps where they are at unless this really slows down or we get a real heavy burst ... maybe we can get enough for a nice picture of snow on the grass/tree areas... So painfully close..... Well fwiw HRRR not even close so far ...so that’s not a good model to lean on today lol. But yeah probably grass etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 35 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Well fwiw HRRR not even close so far ...so that’s not a good model to lean on today lol. But yeah probably grass etc I say that and it starts snowing decent here.. ha ... who knows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Latest from AKQ in regards to ORF/ECG later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Updated zone forecast looks not too bad for SE VA and NE NC. HRRR isn't too inspiring, but... NCZ015-122000- Pasquotank- Including the city of Elizabeth City 1219 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 .THIS AFTERNOON...Rain, breezy with highs in the mid 40s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. .TONIGHT...Rain and snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Windy with lows in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. VAZ095-122000- Norfolk/Portsmouth- 1219 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 .THIS AFTERNOON...Rain, breezy with highs in the mid 40s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .TONIGHT...Rain and snow. Snow accumulation around an inch. Windy with lows in the lower 30s. North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Temp down to 34 deg here in Tuckahoe (NW of Richmond proper). Mix of sn/rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Moderate snow now. Not sticking on anything though. White rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 32° now close to heavy snow! Mulch and grass is starting to whiten up. Off of exit 51a 295 Nuckols Rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 dropped to 35 here..... at least its better then cold rain.. ha... .Prob will end up with a coating or so on grassy/shaded areas.. if we can keep up the mod snow after dark.. To bad it was just daylight savings.. ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Yep, can confirm moderate snow in Innsbrook...slowly sticking to grass, mulch and leaves are faring better. Winter's last gasp. At least the RIC/SEVA thread can be somewhat relevant and near the top of the board here at the bitter end. Roll on spring and severe weather season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 @SteveVa and I are waiting patiently for the turnover (if it happens). Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 radar looks pretty decent right now...but prob will be backing back off soon as the storm gets going off the coast....... too bad we cant wedge some more cold air in here.. owell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 FWIW 12z Euro has more qpf for snow. And looks like wants to have more than 2” total and if you’re in the “dark blue” even more. So add that to the NAM 3k and to a point latest GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Sticking to side streets now. Looks like on back edge unless it fills in from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 An inch on the car now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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