RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Of course the GFS ensembles did not support the OP at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 00z euro is a big miss. Suppressed. Doesn’t even get snow into NC. As of now the GFS is by itself. Time for things to change but as of now this weekend isn’t looking like much, if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 We are due for an old school NC/VA snowstorm that used to occur more regularly. I guess we can consider 12/9/2018 as one of them, but a there were so many from the 1960s through the 1980s to name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I'm not even going to look at the models till Friday night.. They seem to all over the place at the moment.. not worth getting worked up about till we are 48hrs out, even that maybe to soon with this one.. GFS Looking like snow to rain at the moment...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Right now I’m focusing more on the ensembles. The OPS are all over the place. GFS is drunk. Now is over-amplified and gets rain inland. At this stage the ensembles are the way to go. GFS ensembles were good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Right now I’m focusing more on the ensembles. The OPS are all over the place. GFS is drunk. Now is over-amplified and gets rain inland. At this stage the ensembles are the way to go. GFS ensembles were good Very Good!! GEFS look great!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro OP is pretty similar to the GFS. Low is too far inland. We start out as snow then go to a cold rain. Seems about right honestly. See what the ensembles say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 As I thought they would be, euro ensembles are much better for us. Neither euro or gfs ensembles support the OP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Tend to agree with the snow to rain senecios.. I haven't been a believer in this storm for this area from the beginning. I thought we miss out it.. Hopefully I'm wrong but don't like the sudden shift north.. That's usually the kiss of death for us this early...we will see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Tend to agree with the snow to rain senecios.. I haven't been a believer in this storm for this area from the beginning. I thought we miss out it.. Hopefully I'm wrong but don't like the sudden shift north.. That's usually the kiss of death for us this early...we will see Still way to early to get excited about it. Things will continue to change. As of now though both the gfs and euro ensembles look good. And as always here with coastal storms you have to worry about warm air aloft and the dreaded dry slot. We’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, RVASnowLover said: Still way to early to get excited about it. Things will continue to change. As of now though both the gfs and euro ensembles look good. And as always here with coastal storms you have to worry about warm air aloft and the dreaded dry slot. We’ll see. Imagine we get less than we got last year, while places north get double... I don’t want to think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 hours ago, Rhino16 said: Imagine we get less than we got last year, while places north get double... I don’t want to think about it. Ummm, That's normally what happens around here..We definitely aren't a snow belt. We are just about half way there to beating last year's total already... lol The end of the month still looks decent, even if we miss out from the next one .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z ensembles looked good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: 18z ensembles looked good 18z euro eps is an ric hit verbatim 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Midlo Snow Maker said: 18z euro eps is an ric hit verbatim OH YOU’RE BACK. Probably means it’s serious then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 As of now looks like measurable snow and then rain will come wash it away. See if any changes today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: As of now looks like measurable snow and then rain will come wash it away. See if any changes today What about ice potential Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I don't think anyone can answer that yet. Depending how much snow /mix to rain we exactly get.. temps will be rising as the storm gets closer.. then drop back down below freezing into Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 45 minutes ago, SoCoWx said: What about ice potential Sunday night? Flash freeze is possible. Hard to say at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Flash freeze is a thing that really about never happens here. I think best case for us is a few inches of snow, some sleet and then hope for a dry slot or drizzle instead of pouring rain. Not like some huge rush of cold air is coming behind this. This stinks as we are so cold prior to the storm- but it’s also a very common RVA area situation. Is what it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I agree, I don't think it's going to be a flash freeze either but depending on the timing and precip it could get messy for a period of time .. Most likely case right now is snow, to mix, to rain.. How long of each is the unanswered question that remains. Track is going to make all the difference. I personally can see a quick burst of snow then a sleet fest to rain... Being the most likely outcome. Then a possibility of scattered ice on Monday night, for whatever is left remaining on the roads .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z gfs doesn’t change much. Snow, to mix, to rain. At this point I’m just hoping we get snow, some mix and then dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Gfs ensembles were better than 6z. Onto euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z gfs op and ensembles were improved. See if this is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 33 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: 18z gfs op and ensembles were improved. See if this is a trend. They sure did. Tighter cluster and sliiightly more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro ensembles appear to be slightly more west but a larger spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ho hum, well, when you see our thread dead for 17 hours, you know that we don't have a lot of posters in our thread and two, we don't expect too much this Sunday. I guess that beats when our thread is dead from March to November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Ho hum, well, when you see our thread dead for 17 hours, you know that we don't have a lot of posters in our thread and two, we don't expect too much this Sunday. I guess that beats when our thread is dead from March to November. Yeah…this will be a miss for us. Maybe we get 1-3 before we changeover. Not excited about this one at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I know it’s early, but I can’t get rid of this feeling that we do worse than last year. Future still looks good though so I’ll remain hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: I know it’s early, but I can’t get rid of this feeling that we do worse than last year. Future still looks good though so I’ll remain hopeful. Overall pattern still looks good but we’ll see. So hard to get good snowstorms here. Even just a couple of small details can make the difference between rain and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now