RVASnowLover Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Monday could be interesting around here but as always temps are an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, Snowmadness said: Would love for this to happen but seems unlikely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 18 GFS is a perfect hit for RVA. Snow depth map is insane. Between 2am to 8am avg close to 2” per hour or close to it. Again I’m NOT saying it’ll happen. But GFS has consistently shown snow for days. And Euro, CMC and other models are on board for at least some snow. Yes warm ground etc, but those rates with plummeting temps and the first complete rush hour morning drive in a while will be rough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 My app jumped from "little to no accumulation" to "3-6 inches" in 2 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Basically all the models now have at least from 3.5 inches to 13 inches for RVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS goes crazy with 12” RVA, 15” in Short Pump. Would love to see it but have a hard time buying it giving the warm ground we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Rates and time of day, if realized has depicted, should help mitigate that risk somewhat. I expect watches will be hoisted by tomorrow morning. We are basically 24 hours ago then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Rates and time of day, if realized has depicted, should help mitigate that risk somewhat. I expect watches will be hoisted by tomorrow morning. We are basically 24 hours ago then. It will probably help that most of this will happen overnight/morning. GFS is showing some crazy rates which would help with accumulation if that happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 If the NW trend continues we’ll be looking at more rain/sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Exactly.. an amped up storm with these marginal temps normally means...it will pull in more warm air and keep the precip mostly rain & sleet . Would be nice to see a big event but a 1-3 event still seems most likely to me. Hopefully we get at least that. Anything more is a bonus imo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Exactly.. an amped up storm with these marginal temps normally means In this area...It will pull in more warm air and keep the precip mostly rain & sleet . Would be nice to see a big event but a 1-3 event still seems most likely to me. Hopefully we get at least that. Anything more is a bonus imo Especially after a 70 degree day & 60s today . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Hello there URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-509>511-513-515-021700- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.220103T0800Z-220103T1800Z/ Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Nottoway- Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Western Chesterfield- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Farmville, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Crewe, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Bon Air, Midlothian, and Richmond 352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Exactly.. an amped up storm with these marginal temps normally means...it will pull in more warm air and keep the precip mostly rain & sleet . Would be nice to see a big event but a 1-3 event still seems most likely to me. Hopefully we get at least that. Anything more is a bonus imo Agree. Hoping the models are a little over amplified. We want an amped storm but not too much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Still in the 60s at 430pm . Now that the sun is about to set hopefully we see a good steady drop.. unfortunately it dosnt look like it will really drop until the 2nd batch of precip comes through early in the morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Still in the 60s at 430pm . Now that the sun is about to set hopefully we see a good steady drop.. unfortunately it dosnt look like it will really drop until the 2nd batch of precip comes through early in the morning.. Probably will prevent any huge totals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 52 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Still in the 60s at 430pm . Now that the sun is about to set hopefully we see a good steady drop.. unfortunately it dosnt look like it will really drop until the 2nd batch of precip comes through early in the morning This is why I’m not expecting much out of this storm. Snow will fall but will be battling a very warm ground. Maybe if it snows hard enough that will help overcome that. We’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said: Still in the 60s at 430pm . Now that the sun is about to set hopefully we see a good steady drop.. unfortunately it dosnt look like it will really drop until the 2nd batch of precip comes through early in the morning At the end of day we got some potential here and that’s a lot better than we had few weeks ago when it was warm/dry. Its been little wetter around here past week or so too…makes ya wonder if we timed the precip better this year. Beggers can’t be choosers these days tho, so I’m just going to try to enjoy whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 We could also be in late March and dealing with sun angle issues. This is the best threat for the area since January 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 From Wakefield AFD: In addition, hints of CSI is psbl as frontalgenetic forcing maxes out. Upshot is the psblty of some thunder snow as the systm wraps up. Even if the 4-6” forecasts busts we should all see a pretty epic band of heavy snow for at least a little bit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Also, let's be thankful we aren't sitting in the 70s after midnight anymore and setting record highs. BTW, record low of 10 was set just 4 years ago, although 10 is the highest record low for the entire month of January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: From Wakefield AFD: In addition, hints of CSI is psbl as frontalgenetic forcing maxes out. Upshot is the psblty of some thunder snow as the systm wraps up. Even if the 4-6” forecasts busts we should all see a pretty epic band of heavy snow for at least a little bit. This would be pretty cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: We could also be in late March and dealing with sun angle issues. This is the best threat for the area since January 2019. Agree. Best threat we’ve had in a long time. Hope im wrong and we get measurable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Agree. Best threat we’ve had in a long time. Hope im wrong and we get measurable snow I think you're going to do very well. Would rather be up between Ashland and Fredericksburg, but Richmond looks good. 80 degrees in Hampton Roads yesterday. 70 today. My DP was 67 just a few hours ago. Anything to break that pattern is welcome. I'll be monitoring severe storms and wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This feels like a mix of March 2009 & December 2009 to me. Richmond riding that line. Probably going to see an impressive accumulation gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Still High 50s here in Glen Allen at 10pm Hopefully can drop into the 40s by Midnight .. Definitely gonna be a big cutoff within a few miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Latest HRRR keeps warmth around a little longer, cutting back totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 No surprise there .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Latest HRRR keeps warmth around a little longer, cutting back totals HRRR not reliable. Not trying to be a weenie but it’s not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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