RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: 18z Euro 18z euro looked nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Solid 00z runs. For Sunday and beyond. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 00z Euro excellent. Temps are dicey but the 850’s hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 So far the models have been steady. Temps are going to be an issue as always 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6z gfs was a little more west and overall light event. 1-3 area wide using Kuchera amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM looks juicier but a whole lot of orange (sleet) for us from the maps they are posting in the main thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM has the low further west. We get snow then mix. Sharp cutoff though. Richmond gets 2-3. Nothing for Petersburg. Bad trends for us so far today. That’s using the 3K NAM. THe 12K NAM gives us more snow but that’s probably the NAM wet bias 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z gfs was west too. Low right off Obx. We want it a little further east. 1-3 area wide if you use pivotal. WeatherBell is 2-4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Maybe the Euro will deliver the goods. Will check back at 1:20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Maybe the Euro will deliver the goods. Will check back at 1:20. 12Z Canadian was nice. Ratios are going to be tough because I think we could be looking at six or 7 to 1 ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 12Z Canadian was nice. Ratios are going to be tough because I think we could be looking at six or 7 to 1 ratios. Agree. Highly doubt we’ll have 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Well the Uk was bad too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The Canadian shows no sleet which is weird, and it doesn’t offer soundings, so I can’t tell if it’s supposed to be there. (Which I assume it is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro held strong 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro held its ground. Gives us 3-6 kuckera. Would take that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I would still like to see the low more east than what most of the models are showing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I’ve been sending this to my different Richmond area workplaces- we have multiple locations all over RVA. And think I know you guys well enough now to share so I would like your thoughts if you care to give them LOL. I sent this out this morning at 6 AM. This is a special weather bulletin: What: Snow will most likely be blanketing our region again THIS Saturday night (tomorrow night) into Sunday morning. 2-4” of snow is expected at this time. When: Precip will begin sometime between 7 PM n 10 PM Saturday evening most likely as light rain n will transition fairly quickly to snow. Temps will be above freezing to start and really won’t fall below freezing, but could settle in right around 32° during the heaviest of the snow overnight Saturday into Sunday. For us it could be very similar to last Sunday morning-however the storm is not as large. The relatively moderate temperatures will help with roads, but the fact that it will be dark when the heaviest snow is falling will hurt with roads. Sorry this is so late -the snow chance pretty much disappeared as a possibility this past Monday and really didn’t start showing up again on the models until yesterday. Plus with the day job I’ve been behind watching Criminal Minds. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I’ve been sending this to my different Richmond area workplaces- we have multiple locations all over RVA. And think I know you guys well enough now to share so I would like your thoughts if you care to give them LOL. I sent this out this morning at 6 AM. This is a special weather bulletin: What: Snow will most likely be blanketing our region again THIS Saturday night (tomorrow night) into Sunday morning. 2-4” of snow is expected at this time. When: Precip will begin sometime between 7 PM n 10 PM Saturday evening most likely as light rain n will transition fairly quickly to snow. Temps will be above freezing to start and really won’t fall below freezing, but could settle in right around 32° during the heaviest of the snow overnight Saturday into Sunday. For us it could be very similar to last Sunday morning-however the storm is not as large. The relatively moderate temperatures will help with roads, but the fact that it will be dark when the heaviest snow is falling will hurt with roads. Sorry this is so late -the snow chance pretty much disappeared as a possibility this past Monday and really didn’t start showing up again on the models until yesterday. Plus with the day job I’ve been behind watching Criminal Minds. Lol Good write up. 2-4 seems like a good range right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said: Good write up. 2-4 seems like a good range right now. Thanks man! Much respect for you so I appreciate it! For last Sunday I told the region that the snow should change to a mix or rain by 11 AM and then taper off rather quickly, and I was getting nervous around 9am. But sure enough it came through haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Thanks. Appreciate it. You were spot on. It’s a different setup but has the same feel to last Sunday’s system. I think we could get a little more if the low goes a little more east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I also shared an edited version of the "wasnow215" blurb with leaders of Chesterfield Schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Shadowzone said: I also shared an edited version of the "wasnow215" blurb with leaders of Chesterfield Schools. Don’t waste your time sending it to Henrico, they won’t care to give anyone a snow day. Everyone is still upset from last time. @wasnow215, I like the writeup! Amounts sound realistic, and overall it’s very professional sounding to read! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Don’t waste your time sending it to Henrico, they won’t care to give anyone a snow day. Everyone is still upset from last time. @wasnow215, I like the writeup! Amounts sound realistic, and overall it’s very professional sounding to read! I used to work there - they did screw up this past Monday. If we close Monday in Chesterfield, there WILL be virtual school this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 DT going 2-4 for Richmond as well. Temps are going to be razor thin. A degree or two could make the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Winter Storm Watch now in place. 16 minutes ago, Shadowzone said: I used to work there - they did screw up this past Monday. If we close Monday in Chesterfield, there WILL be virtual school this time. They got ripped a new one on instagram by all the students. They then say “Well if it happened on a monday, we’d give you a snowday.” And then that sunday after the snow had fallen, they posted roughly saying: “Snow days will still be a thing if conditions allow for it. We also think the joy of a snow day is important blah blah blah” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3K NAM was really bad. Takes the low into bay and we get mainly rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12K was a little better but not much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Rhino16 said: Don’t waste your time sending it to Henrico, they won’t care to give anyone a snow day. Everyone is still upset from last time. @wasnow215, I like the writeup! Amounts sound realistic, and overall it’s very professional sounding to read! Thank you Rhino! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said: 12K was a little better but not much NAM models didn’t handle last Sunday on Friday either did they? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Good question. I might go back and check that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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