Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Well, if anybody can bring us some luck, it's a post from Midlo. Hate waking up to the WWA, it's like making the JV Basketball Team or going to the prom with your cousin. Holding out hope the short range models are on to something and get us in warning criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hopefully the models don’t have a good handle on the CAD. They tend to not handle CAD well. Example of that was on Tuesday this week I think it was. Was suppose to be in the mid 50s and it stayed in the low 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Yeah trying to be positive here but after 40 years in this neck of the woods my fear is this is yet another one of those WAA snows that produces a shield of snow that runs basically 30-50 miles north of us for hours while we have the cold temps. Then by the time the precip sinks down to RIC the cold temps are heading out and we go from snow to sleet to rain way too quickly. We need to get in on the long sustained period of WAA snows from the start to make this work. But man that’s tough to do with our climo I fear. Oh well. Hope springs eternal. 4 inches and a dry slot and I’d call it a win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12z RGEM was a lot better. 7-9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I assume most of if not all is front end snow? Do you have the breakdown Cant say I can believe them bigger totals here...unless we get some back end snow, or if we somehow dont change over here as long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 20 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: I assume most of if not all is front end snow? Do you have the breakdown Cant say I can believe them bigger totals here...unless we get some back end snow, or if we somehow dont change over here as long. Some of it is back end snow but not sure how much. It puts the coastal low right off the VA Beach coast which would work for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 RGEM is a good model to look at. Pretty accurate still this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Snowmadness said: RGEM is a good model to look at. Pretty accurate still this range Give us 10-12 at the end. Obviously it’s going off having the coastal off VA Beach coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The RGEM nukes Maryland with almost 40" of snow. Not saying it's impossible, but we can probably toss that. However, it's still good to see some models showing a better L location for us and letting us get in on that Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: The RGEM nukes Maryland with almost 40" of snow. Not saying it's impossible, but we can probably toss that. However, it's still good to see some models showing a better L location for us and letting us get in on that Sunday. Yeah can toss 40 for Maryland. It’s possible for us to get 10-12 if we can get the back end snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 EURO going the wrong direction for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Yeah. The Euro is no bueno. I really want in on those deform bands. Holding out hope that the models aren’t predicting the transfer correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Going to be tough to get more than 3-4" in the metro with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4-5 is eh... Don’t like that lower amount with any possible rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Also thhis area was downgraded to a winter weather advisory for 2 to 4 now. They are obviously going with the GFS.. Hope we can hold to that much at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Also thhis area was downgraded to a winter weather advisory for 2 to 4 now. They are obviously going with the GFS.. Hope we can hold to that much at this point... I never saw a Winter Storm Warning to begin with, did I miss that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nah, never a warning level but we were under a watch and then they went, seems rightfully so at this point, with the WWA (the price is right horns in my head typing that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I never saw a Winter Storm Warning to begin with, did I miss that? My apologies I was looking at the Rchmond forecast . I'm in Short pump and still have a winter storm warning here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Same with Ashland on the warning still in place for 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We’re also at 37 from a forecasted 39 so hoping those 2 degrees continues to carry and helps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I am near west end, in Tuckahoe near UR. Miss my Goochland address from a few years back, always good for 1 to 2 inches more. If we can get 4 to 6, I will be more than happy. Just want enough to play with the kids and dog in before the changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Actually not sure if that temp is right? Going by phone and seeing 37 on one and 40 on the other ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The temp probably won't make a difference since its the warm air aloft that will be pushed in that will change everything over.. If the whole storm comes in a hour or two earlier that would help. Thev more north the more problems for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treyfish Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 37 in Mechanicsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Now there’s a Winter Storm Warning for Western areas including Chesterfield and the City. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 https://www.weather.gov/akq/winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18z NAM 3k is ugly. Lucky to get an inch. not as amped on the initial thump and temps are higher than what we’ve seen. Per pivotal- just checked TT and that looks more in line with other models. No idea how the algorithms are so far off for the same model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 How was the Uk model at 12z? Been working so haven’t been paying much attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Took a step back- 4-6” down from 8” at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now