RIC Airport Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 24 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: ^^NAM 18Z - why are these so much different? Different algorithms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm pretty much done looking at all model outputs at this point. I think we are pretty much locked in for 2-5inches. If we can avoid the changeover/ dryslot and get the right track, this could easily double...If the changeover comes in quick then we will most likely be on the low end, maybe even less then 2 inches .(unless we get lucky with the backend) Enjoy whatever snow we get ..It may not be around long.. lol At least the last few models are trending a little colder.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Different algorithms. Thanks! I'll switch to looking at the algorithms that give us more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18z euro looked a little better. It looks likes it’s trying to give us something big. I would take 6-8 though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said: 18z euro looked a little better. It looks likes it’s trying to give us something big. I would take 6-8 though Here it is. Storm sets up just a tad more southeast and it’s beyond game on. But yeah 6-8” is excellent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 41 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Here it is. Storm sets up just a tad more southeast and it’s beyond game on. But yeah 6-8” is excellent. I like the "wiggle room" for central VA. Even if that shifted north it wouldn't be a total bust, more like a 2-4" deal. Which is not bad after the last couple of winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: I like the "wiggle room" for central VA. Even if that shifted north it wouldn't be a total bust, more like a 2-4" deal. Which is not bad after the last couple of winters. Agree. I want more haha but have to put it in perspective of how bad last winter was 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 EPS has us very close to the 8-10 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 And this is why I don’t post in the main thread. Made a comment about liking the EURO run for us and they respond with it being a NOVA special. Seriously!!?? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: And this is why I don’t post in the main thread. Made a comment about liking the EURO run for us and they respond with it being a NOVA special. Seriously!!?? I got your back over there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Haha thanks for the support @wasnow215 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: And this is why I don’t post in the main thread. Made a comment about liking the EURO run for us and they respond with it being a NOVA special. Seriously!!?? Exactly why we started making this thread years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ephesians2 said: Nice. I think we could score big if we can get the rain line to stay near Petersburg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Nice. I think we could score big if we can get the rain line to stay near Petersburg That model actually takes the rain line all the way up to EZF at one point. But there's enough heavy snow before the flip for decent totals in Central VA. Now if it stays frozen ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: That model actually takes the rain line all the way up to EZF at one point. But there's enough heavy snow before the flip for decent totals in Central VA. Now if it stays frozen ... Ahhh ok. Didn’t look at the model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 From the main thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Way out of the range of the HRRR anyways. DT puts us in the 4-8 range which I’ll take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ephesians2 said: From the main thread Yeah that’s from DT who lives down in Chester 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 0z 3k NAM isn’t bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 0z 3k NAM isn’t bad unfortunately, that counts a lot of sleet as snow at 10:1 ratios. NAM 3k isn't that much of a change from the last run, a pretty quick flip to sleet/ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 RGEM was okay. 4-5 in RVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS sucked. Pretty warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS sucked. Pretty warm Hasn't it been warm consistently for this storm? Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 27 minutes ago, benjammin said: Hasn't it been warm consistently for this storm? Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk Yes but this run was warmer, even into NOVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Eh... CMC is bleh. Not bad, not great either. I don’t agree that it’s the best case scenario for everyone here like they’re saying, but okay I guess. Edit: Now, if you’re saying it’s the best for everyone from the 0z runs, I’d agree so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Ukmet still throwing us a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Would definitely take the UK. It’s been pretty consistent too with giving us 7-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looking at short range a models now. 6z HRRR model still shows nice totals 6-8 for our areas. 12k NAM is about 6 inches. RGEM is about 5 inches. UKMET run is the best output w/ an area wide 6-8 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 What's this snow that everybody speaks of ⛄ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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