Snowmadness Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Def a solid hit! Every model has been trending better for us (minus the NAM) Encouraging to see this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 We need to get in on the coastal action after the initial thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 0z Euro looked a LOT better for RVA. 8-9 inches! Goodnight! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6z EURO looked like a general 4-7 in RVA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 EURO got people on the main thread freaking out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I had to bite my tongue in that thread last night as I know it's always IMBY for them but if anybody, say, like Richmond chimes in wishing for snow, they get shot down. Haven't checked other locals, 12 going conservative, or a blend, 2-4", change to rain, leaves door open for backside. Looks like Wakefield calling it that way as well at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 12:41 PM, JB Fins said: I had to bite my tongue in that thread last night as I know it's always IMBY for them but if anybody, say, like Richmond chimes in wishing for snow, they get shot down. Haven't checked other locals, 12 going conservative, or a blend, 2-4", change to rain, leaves door open for backside. Expand I rarely post in the main thread cuz it’s always IMBY. You’ll get attacked if you’re from this area and you post about more snow down here than up there. 2-4 is a blend of GFS and EURO. I’m waiting for the 12z suite today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 12:41 PM, JB Fins said: I had to bite my tongue in that thread last night as I know it's always IMBY for them but if anybody, say, like Richmond chimes in wishing for snow, they get shot down. Haven't checked other locals, 12 going conservative, or a blend, 2-4", change to rain, leaves door open for backside. Looks like Wakefield calling it that way as well at the moment. Expand Does the NWS usuallly go conservative anyway? I don’t think they usually go higher until right before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 From what I can recall, yes. RIC_Airport and Inudaw can probably weigh in on that one. As we know, usually wise given our climo, to go conservative and bump up during the event if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 2:05 PM, Rhino16 said: Does the NWS usuallly go conservative anyway? I don’t think they usually go higher until right before. Expand Yes NWS always goes conservative and then play catch-up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Can already tell the NAM will be bad for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Primary is too far north. We need it in Kentucky, not in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3K Nam bad for everyone Sunday compared to what we have been seeing- the initial thump has essentially gone away for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 That's a slight improvement for us in central VA compared to previous runs is it not? 0.4 to 0.9? Has the EURO ever caved to the NAM? I know they all have their victories but hard to bet against the King in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 2:45 PM, Sernest14 said: 3K Nam bad for everyone Sunday compared to what we have been seeing- the initial thump has essentially gone away for most. Expand Yup. We get a brief period of snow, then mix, then rain. Hope it’s wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 2:47 PM, JB Fins said: That's a slight improvement for us in central VA compared to previous runs is it not? 0.4 to 0.9? Has the EURO ever caved to the NAM? I know they all have their victories but hard to bet against the King in winter. Expand True but Nam only goes to 60 so that's with 6 hours of additional precip haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not sure how well the HRRR generally holds up but that does look like it would be better for us. Cold extends pretty far to our south so don't see any change to rain like the Nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM is pretty good for central VA. So far NAM is the only model with a total shutout. Hopefully it stays that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM was better. Around 6” for RVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I dont think any of these models can accurately predict the front & back end accumulation yet...with all the mixing or just plain rain that could happen.. it's all going to depend on where this storm sets up a few miles can make a huge difference. I expect a few hours of snow, then mix to rain, then back to a mix/snow when it pulls away.. If we even get the wrap around. 3-5 seems like a good total call for the RVA area but nobody really knows for sure yet. Could easily be nothing or more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not much change in the GFS in terms of amounts. Primary goes into Ohio. We don’t get much on the backside. 2-4 throughout RVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 3:59 PM, RVASnowLover said: Not much change in the GFS in terms of amounts. Primary goes into Ohio. We don’t get much on the backside. 2-4 throughout RVA Expand I thought it ticked up to 4-6" with some of the maps they posted in the storm thread. I have very bad and worse, untrained eyes so I could be mistaken but it even looks like we pick up a nice slug of moisture on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 4:08 PM, JB Fins said: I thought it ticked up to 4-6" with some of the maps they posted in the storm thread. I have very bad and worse, untrained eyes so I could be mistaken but it even looks like we pick up a nice slug of moisture on the backend. Expand Pivotal Kuchera has Richmond at 3.7, Petersburg at 1.8 so splitting hairs. Close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 CMC was okay. DC get crushed on the backside. I really hope we can get in on some of the backside action. Models haven’t been giving us much of that. 3-6 is the consensus so far. See what the UK and Euro does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 UK 12Z with another good hit UK 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Can someone post the models predictions for the front and back end dumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 5:12 PM, Sernest14 said: UK 12Z with another good hit UK Expand Would gladly take this and run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 5:15 PM, eaglesin2011 said: Can someone post the models predictions for the front and back end dumps. Expand I haven't seen anything more than 1" on recent models for the back end - everything is more or less the front. Dry slot and then maybe some light snow/showers for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 5:31 PM, Sernest14 said: I haven't seen anything more than 1" on recent models for the back end - everything is more or less the front. Dry slot and then maybe some light snow/showers for a few hours Expand Yeah models haven’t given us much on the back end. That’s tough for the models to predict though so could maybe be surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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