Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

[RIC Airport]

Time for a new winter thread and lets hope there will be plenty to talk about. 

By the way, for the first 11 days of November, only three other days had high temperatures colder than yesterday at Richmond. Those days were 11/11/1987 (36°F), 11/6/1953 (38°F) and 11/11/1913 (41°F). Interestingly, the first two occurred on dates with two of the largest November snowfalls at RIC.

[VAB1]

ORF was 1F away from a high-minimum on 11/11. Some impressive early cold.

[JB Fins]

Remember that 11/11/87 snowfall well.  Senior year of high school and early dismissal but before that we were sledding with lunch trays from the cafeteria down the hill at J.R. Tucker.  However, I think that might have been our only highlight of the season. 

[VAB1]

 

 

OK, I know - 16 days out but...........

 

[RIC Airport]

Looks like there is an issue with the Richmond ASOS. You can see the sporadic temperature readings shortly after midnight. Take note, in particular, the intrahour obs.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=kric&num=60&banner=on

The CLI that was sent showed RIC hitting 75 degrees today, but clearly that is incorrect. 

[RIC Airport]

It's too bad that the advertised pattern isn't happening a month later. Below are the measurable snowfall events since 1897 for the first 20 days of December. Definitely doesn't bode well if we are looking for a large event. Plus, there hasn't been any measurable December events since 2010. 

RICHMOND Snowstorms December 1st-20th

1.0” December 19, 1901

0.9” December 9, 1903

3.0” December 10, 1904

1.3” December 12, 1904

4.2” December 15-17, 1904

0.8” December 15, 1905

0.5” December 16, 1909

0.6” December 5, 1910

0.1” December 7, 1910

0.6” December 9, 1912

0.6” December 12, 1915

0.2” December 16, 1915

6.2” December 18-19, 1916

10.4” December 12-14, 1917

0.2” December 19, 1922

1.0” December 14, 1923

1.2” December 8, 1922

6.0” December 17, 1930

1.0” December 9, 1931

7.5” December 17, 1932

0.1” December 11, 1933

3.2” December 10-11, 1934

0.1” December 5, 1937

0.5” December 13, 1937

0.7” December 7, 1942

0.8” December 16, 1942

4.5” December 20, 1942

0.6” December 13, 1945

3.1” December 15, 1945

4.5” December 18-19, 1945

0.3” December 13, 1946

0.7” December 10-11, 1950

2.2” December 5-6, 1954

2.1” December 4, 1957

0.8” December 11, 1957

6.7” December 11, 1958

5.8” December 14, 1958

1.2” December 19, 1959

1.7” December 12, 1960

0.3” December 9, 1961

0.1” December 9, 1962

0.1” December 11, 1962

0.4 December 18, 1963

0.3” December 13, 1966

2.8” December 7, 1968

4.4” December 11, 1973

4.3” December 16-17, 1973

1.7” December 8, 1976

0.7” December 15-16, 1981

6.1” December 12, 1982

1.8” December 19, 1982

1.3” December 20, 1985

1.8” December 9, 1988

5.9” December 8-9, 1989

5.0” December 12-13, 1989

0.8” December 19, 1989

1.5” December 7, 1995

1.0” December 19, 1996

1.0” December 19, 2000

5.0” December 4-5, 2002

1.3” December 19, 2004

4.4” December 5-6, 2005

7.4” December 18-19, 2009

0.6” December 4, 2010

1.1” December 13, 2010

2.0” December 16, 2010

11.5" December 9, 2018

[olafminesaw]

Let's get this party started 

[JB Fins]

Bring it!

Let's have a front loaded winter and be in shorts by March.

 

 

[olafminesaw]

It's back (would be a special kind of brutal verbatim IMBY)

 

 

[Midlo Snow Maker]

looks great on paper, long time to go 

[Midlo Snow Maker]

just get me the cold 

[SteveVa]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

It's back (would be a special kind of brutal verbatim IMBY)

 

 

I'll take that trace amount  

[eaglesin2011]

So looks like this one is still very much up on the air for this weekend ....A dusting to a few inches? What's everyone think ..

 

[JB Fins]

Slushy inch...glad somebody posted in this thread because even though we are Mid-Atlantic, the model thread is DC centric.  BUT - cold enough for Midlo to fire up his gun(s) and start his snowpack.  So, mulch and grass cover for the city and Henrico but much more south of the river in his front yard.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I'll be rooting for you all!

[RVAman]

7 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

I think we all know the locals will boost totals tomorrow morning and/or 4 hours before the storm. They always do! 

[eaglesin2011]

1 hour ago, RVAman said:

I think we all know the locals will boost totals tomorrow morning and/or 4 hours before the storm. They always do! 

Yeah they def wait it out for sure most times.. Around here that isn't the worst thing to do.. most of the storms lately we have gotten lucky with the back end moister and I wouldn't expect this storm to be any different .. Temps def going be an issue and the longer it can hold on the better...

[Inudaw]

Real concern it seems is how much will stick with an iffy surface temperature and overall thermal profile.   Most mets and local areas not buying the high totals on models right now. 

[Cobalt]

9 minutes ago, Inudaw said:

Real concern it seems is how much will stick with an iffy surface temperature and overall thermal profile.   Most mets and local areas not buying the high totals on models right now. 

All down to precip rates. I feel for you folks down in Richmond, since storms like this can be iffy

[eaglesin2011]

13 hours ago, Cobalt said:

 

Winter Weather Advisory issued December 08 at 6:06AM EST until December 09 at 4:00PM EST by NWS WakefieldCaroline; Cumberland; Eastern Louisa; Fluvanna; Goochland; Powhatan; Prince Edward; Western Hanover; Western Louisa...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO4 PM EST SATURDAY...* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions.Total wet snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected.* WHERE...Portions of central and north central Virginia.* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Saturday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities attimes.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snowwill cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snowcovered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution whiledriving. The latest road conditions for the state you are callingfrom can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 

This Looks like a safe call right now.

If all goes right... Guess we could get to the 3-5++ in some areas around here that the weather channel is predicting...

38 degrees here in Glen Allen..

Hopefully dosnt go much higher then that..

[eaglesin2011]

Always gotta worry about the temps/dry air around here... We could end up with that famous wet rain/snow for hours or sleet fest!

2p-5pm will give a good idea  of surface/air temps , hopefully they start dropping off around that time.. 

[eaglesin2011]

38 and Wet rain snow @ va commons mall .rt 1

[JB Fins]

Just drove back from Williamsburg to Glen Allen, rain snow line was 13 miles east of RIC.  Snowing to beat the band out here now, temp was 45 when I left at 12:35 and now 34 when I got back at 3:15.

J.C.'s special at Pierce's hit the spot but when did they eliminate the cookie from the deal?

[eaglesin2011]

Winter Storm Warning
VAZ075-076-512-513-515-517-519-521-090415-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WW.Y.0004.171209T0000Z-171209T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.171209T0000Z-171209T2100Z/
Westmoreland-Richmond-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-
Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex-
Including the cities of Mechanicsville, Bon Air, Midlothian, 
Richmond, Aylett, and Tappahannock
309 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Expect a mix of rain and snow to change to all snow this
evening. Rain may briefly mix back in late tonight. Moderate to
heavy wet snow expected. Plan on slippery travel conditions. 
Total wet snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected 
tonight into Saturday.

* WHERE...Portions of central and east central Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for wet snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
 

[RIC Airport]

   Mesoscale Discussion 1789
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of southern/eastern Virginia into the
   Delmarva Peninsula

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 081952Z - 090045Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates around or in excess of 1 inch per hour
   could develop and impact Richmond and surrounding areas of southern
   and eastern Virginia by early evening.  This could commence as early
   as 5 PM EST and continue through the 8-9 PM EST time frame.

   DISCUSSION...Strengthening large-scale ascent is contributing to
   increasingly saturated thermodynamic profiles and precipitation
   rates across much of southern through eastern Virginia.  This
   appears likely to be aided by a zone of enhanced lift associated
   with mid-level frontogenetic forcing, which is forecast to redevelop
   northeast of the central Appalachians through the northern Mid
   Atlantic Coast region by early this evening.  This is expected to
   increase lift through the favorable mixed-phase layer for large
   dendritic ice crystal growth, which could potentially provide
   support for heavy snow rates.

   Generally west through north of the Hampton Roads area, roughly from
   near Danville through much of the Greater Richmond area,
   northeastward into the Delmarva Peninsula, models suggest that
   temperature profiles are generally below freezing.  Current surface
   temperatures/wet-bulb temperatures appear marginal for snow reaching
   the surface.  However, with the onset of nightfall, and  perhaps
   weak low-level cold advection and cooling associated with melting
   precipitation, a changeover to snow appears possible by the 22-23z
   time frame, if not before.  Heavy snow rates around or in excess of
   1 inch per hour appear possible, and may continue into the 01-03Z
   time frame, before diminishing.

   ..Kerr.. 12/08/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36807940 37537853 38057728 38907564 38747491 37727568
               36887751 36447929 36807940 

[eaglesin2011]

Watch the airport will prob still only report officially to have 1 to 2 inches total snowfall... While across the street will have 6  ha

(of course in this storm the decent snow to no snow may not be that far from each other)

[SteveVa]

So close, but so far! 

Temperature down to 39 here in Virginia Beach. I can confirm some frozen precip mixing in with the rain using the black jacket test  

[Inudaw]

Snowing nicely on south east side near Airport (Richmond).    1/2" as of 20 minutes ago or so.  

[rmcwahoo]

West End of the City between half inch and inch already, and roads turning white. Reading the Wakefield discussion sounds like this could be a major overperformer as they are expecting 6 inches or so around the Richmond metro with potential for more if this evening's heavier band lingers. Nice start to the winter

[SoCoWx]

Don’t know if the rest of y’all are seeing sleet, but it looks like about 50% sleet from my window right now. I’m right next to a street light. Any idea when that’ll pass? If at all? I’m in Monroe Ward, right in the city.