2017/18 Lakes/OV winter snowfall contest

[Roger Smith]

The contest follows the same format as the past two winters. Predict the total seasonal snowfall (some may have already fallen at some locations) using the following table as a guide (1986-2015 average values and the past two seasons are shown) ... please use the entry form below this table. Note there are three tie-breakers involving monthly amounts at ORD, IND and DTW. 

 

LOCATION _______________ 1986-2015 ____ 2015-16 ____ 2016-17

Alpena, MI (APN) _____________ 80.4 _______ 88.8 ________66.4

Chicago, IL (ORD) ____________ 38.1 _______ 31.2 ________26.1

Cleveland, OH (CLE) ___________67.2 _______32.8 ________ 37.3

Columbus, OH (CMH) __________28.4 _______ 17.1 ________ 9.3

Detroit, MI (DTW) ____________ 44.8 _______ 35.3 _______ 37.9

Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) _________ 34.0 _______ 20.0 _______ 18.5

Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) ________77.1 _______ 61.1 _______ 60.1

Green Bay, WI (GRB) __________54.2 _______ 50.0 _______ 53.2

Indianapolis, IN (IND) _________ 25.9 _______ 13.3 ________9.7

La Crosse, WI (LSE) ___________46.1 _______ 40.3 _______ 42.2
London, ON (YXU) ____________ 75.7 _______ 65.2 _______ 66.1

Louisville, KY (SDF) ___________ 13.9 _______ 14.9 ________ 2.7
Marquette, MI (MQT) _________ 199.8 ______ 160.9 ______ 154.0

Milwaukee, WI (MKE) __________49.2 ________39.1 _______ 37.6

Minneapolis, MN (MSP) ________ 50.6_________36.7 _______32.0

Moline, IL (MLI) ______________ 33.5 ________ 24.1 _______22.4

Paducah, KY (PAH)_____________ 9.2 ________ 12.1 ________1.2
Peoria, IL (PIA) _______________24.9 ________ 15.3 _______13.9

St. Louis, MO (STL) ___________ 18.4 ________ 10.9 ________3.2

Toronto, ON (YYZ) ____________ 42.5 ________ 25.9 _______32.6

------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------

ENTRY FORM 

APN __

ORD __

CLE __

CMH __ 

DET __

FWA __

GRR __

GRB __

IND __

LSE __

YXU __

SDF __

MQT __

MKE __

MSP __

MLI __

PAH __

PIA __

STL __

YYZ __

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal)

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal)

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you want to see individual years in the 1986-2015 period, check the 2015-16 contest thread (several pages into the archives now), post number one there has a table of the 30 years in the period used. 

Entries will be accepted until end of the day Thursday, Nov 30th (2359 CST). You can edit entries before that time as the table of entries will be done in early December (using an excel table format). Good luck !!

Late entries (Dec 1 to 7) will be scored but cannot place higher than 6th, enter for the fun of it if you want though. Entries that appear in the thread after Dec 8 will not be scored. 

(This was later extended to end of Dec 10 to encourage more entries -- contest is now underway and closed to further entries).

[michsnowfreak]

Thanks for putting this up Roger! I will be entering. 

[Stebo]

APN 77"

ORD 37"

CLE 47"

CMH 18"

DET 55"

FWA 42"

GRR 68"

GRB 53"

IND 22"

LSE 35"

YXU 70"

SDF 8.5"

MQT 157"

MKE 45"

MSP 34"

MLI 32"

PAH 5"

PIA 18"

STL 14"

YYZ 45"

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) 7.0"

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) 8.0"

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) 13.5"

[Roger Smith]

APN __ 72

ORD __ 30

CLE __ 55

CMH __ 20

DET __ 40

FWA __ 30

GRR __ 80

GRB __ 45

IND __ 11

LSE __ 34

YXU __ 80

SDF __ 10

MQT __176

MKE __ 35

MSP __ 38

MLI __ 22

PAH __ 11

PIA __ 12

STL __ 15

YYZ __ 35

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) __ 6.5"

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) __ 3.5"

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) __ 17.2"

[cyclone77]

Alpena, MI (APN)  105 

Chicago, IL (ORD)  41

Cleveland, OH (CLE)  69

Columbus, OH (CMH)  31

Detroit, MI (DTW)  48

Fort Wayne, IN (FWA)  45

Grand Rapids, MI (GRR)  90

Green Bay, WI (GRB)  47

Indianapolis, IN (IND)  19

La Crosse, WI (LSE)  35

London, ON (YXU)  64

Louisville, KY (SDF)  7

Marquette, MI (MQT)  233

Milwaukee, WI (MKE)  41

Minneapolis, MN (MSP)  43

Moline, IL (MLI)  25

Paducah, KY (PAH)  11

Peoria, IL (PIA)  28

St. Louis, MO (STL)  22

Toronto, ON (YYZ)  48

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD 6.4

2. January 2018 snowfall IND  5.0"

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW  16.8"

[madwx]

APN 85"

ORD 44"

CLE 72"

CMH 20"

DET 46"

FWA 33"

GRR 83"

GRB 62"

IND 22"

LSE 51"

YXU 68"

SDF 7.5"

MQT 188"

MKE 44"

MSP  52"

MLI 38"

PAH 5.5"

PIA 21"

STL 12.5"

YYZ 45"

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) 10.2"

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) 6.3

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) 9.2"

[IWXwx]

ENTRY FORM 

APN __105"

ORD __54"

CLE __70"

CMH __ 34"

DET __52"

FWA __42"

GRR __91"

GRB __60"

IND __32"

LSE __52"

YXU __81"

SDF __15"

MQT __220"

MKE __55"

MSP __57"

MLI __39"

PAH __12"

PIA __30"

STL __17"

YYZ __27"

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) 8.5"

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) 11"

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) 16.5"

 

[Central Illinois]

APN 74"

ORD 39"

CLE 46"

CMH 26"

DET 45"

FWA 42"

GRR 71"

GRB 51"

IND 31"

LSE 35"

YXU 64"

SDF 8.5"

MQT 142"

MKE 45"

MSP 29"

MLI 31"

PAH 4"

PIA 37"

STL 23"

YYZ 40"

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) 9.0"

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) 11.0"

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) 9.5"

[dmc76]

APN __    72.6”

ORD __     27.6”

CLE __      45.3”

CMH __     14.7”

DET __       30.5”

FWA __       32.2”

GRR __       57.8”

GRB __        43.3”

IND __         11.6”

LSE __         31.7”

YXU __         73.0”

SDF __         9.7”

MQT __        167.5”

MKE __       35.0”

MSP __        42.5”

MLI __          14.0”

PAH __         12.6”

PIA __           8.9”

STL __          12.5”

YYZ __          44.6”

 

1. 2.3”

2. 3.8”

3. 6.8”

 

[michsnowfreak]

23 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Come on, add Houghton, Michigan - CMX

Do they officially measure snow?

[slow poke]

On ‎11‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 0:03 AM, Roger Smith said:

 

 

ENTRY FORM 

APN __80

ORD __39

CLE __70

CMH __ 30

DET __40

FWA __36

GRR __78

GRB __52

IND __26

LSE __45

YXU __76

SDF __15

MQT __200

MKE __48

MSP __50

MLI __33

PAH __12

PIA __24

STL __18

YYZ __40

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD  8.0

2. January 2018 snowfall IND  8.0

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW  8.0

Thanks Roger for doing this again, good luck to all who enter......

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Yeah, they do. It's done, I think, at the Keweenaw Research Center through MTU. Also, John Dee monitors snow on a daily basis as well. He's about 4ish miles north of Calumet in Allouez TWP.

Oh wow I didn't know that. I figured it was just coop observers outside of MQT

[Roger Smith]

We are a little short on entries, would anyone object if I extended the deadline to Sunday Dec 10th at end of day CST, with your option to edit your forecasts. I will post a notice in the forum banter or discussion threads. 

So edit away, I have not looked at any forecasts yet (have been very busy moving house and just getting back to various projects now).

[thomp2mp]

NTRY FORM 

APN 81.1

ORD 30.5

CLE 48.5

CMH 22.0 

DET 49.1

FWA 22.2

GRR 69.6

GRB 42.4

IND 27

LSE 42.1

YXU 70

SDF 9.9

MQT 182.5

MKE 42.7

MSP 59.8

MLI 29

PAH 7.7

PIA 27.1

STL 14.5

YYZ 37.5

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal): 13.1

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal)  4.5

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) 18

[DAFF]

On ‎2017‎-‎11‎-‎12 at 0:03 AM, Roger Smith said:

Always fun to watch this unfold.

------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------

ENTRY FORM 

APN __ 97.6

ORD __44.9

CLE __89.7

CMH __ 30.1

DET __69.2

FWA __38

GRR __83.1

GRB __50.3

IND __22.1

LSE __41.2

YXU __87.3

SDF __17.2

MQT __222.3

MKE __47.2

MSP __49.9

MLI __30.2

PAH __14.3

PIA __28.3

STL __17.2

YYZ __48.2

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal)10.2

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal)8.1

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal)13.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*** Fitting this is my 1000 th post !!

 

[michsnowfreak]

What the heck might as well give it a try.

APN 92.1

ORD 44.6

CLE 64.4

CMH 27.0

DTW 55.4

FWA 39.9

GRR 86.8

GRB 53.3

IND 24.4

LSE 47.7

YXU 95.9

SDF 11.8

MQT 223.4

MKE 51.1

MSP 52.6

MLI 34.5

PAH 8.8

PIA 25.7

STL 16.1

YYZ 55.5

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal): 9.8

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal)  9.0

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) 12.1

[IndTenn]

APN - 100

ORD - 65

CLE - 50

CMH - 30

DTW - 83

FWA - 47

GRR - 106

GRB - 84

IND - 35

LSE - 81

YXU - 145

SDF - 29

MQT - 216

MKE - 71

MSP - 87

MLI - 58

PAH - 23

PIA - 40

STL - 52

YYZ - 104

TB1 - 15

TB2 - 6

TB3 - 20

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, IndTenn said:

APN - 100

ORD - 65

CLE - 50

CMH - 30

DTW - 83

FWA - 47

GRR - 106

GRB - 84

IND - 35

LSE - 81

YXU - 145

SDF - 29

MQT - 216

MKE - 71

MSP - 87

MLI - 58

PAH - 23

PIA - 40

STL - 52

YYZ - 104

TB1 - 15

TB2 - 6

TB3 - 20

[hawkeye_wx]

APN __ 90

ORD __ 35

CLE __ 60

CMH __ 30

DET __ 45

FWA __ 35

GRR __ 80

GRB __ 56

IND __ 20

LSE __ 45

YXU __ 80

SDF __ 15

MQT __ 205

MKE __ 50

MSP __ 45

MLI __ 25

PAH __ 8

PIA __ 18

STL __ 10

YYZ __ 43

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal)  7

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal)  9

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal)  13

[Roger Smith]

Friendly reminder, this is inches not cms

 

[vpbob21]

On 11/12/2017 at 0:03 AM, Roger Smith said:

APN   73

ORD   39

CLE   53

CMH   28

DET   38

FWA   41

GRR   90

GRB   37

IND   31

LSE   35

YXU   59

SDF   21

MQT  186

MKE   38

MSP   37

MLI   28

PAH   20

PIA   23

STL   17

YYZ   49

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal)  6.5

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal)  13.6

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal)  9.9

 

 

[cmillzz]

APN 75

ORD 30

CLE 48

CMH 15

DET 43

FWA 28

GRR 70

GRB 45

IND 19

LSE 45

YXU 55

SDF 12

MQT 168

MKE 40

MSP 45

MLI 25

PAH 9

PIA 19

STL 10

YYZ 40

Tiebreakers

1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal): 4.2

2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal)  8.2

3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) 15

[Roger Smith]

The contest is now closed to further entries; we have 15 forecasts.

In general terms, the forecasts call for slightly below average total snowfall as shown in the following table which lists the contest average (blue), 1986-2015 average (green), and contest max and min entries (bold type). Other entries between max and min are shown in their approximate positions relative to these by two-letter codes of names of the 13 remaining entrants. These are expanded to user names at the bottom of the graph where you will also find each forecaster's 20-station total forecast. That total forecast, rather than alphabetical order is used to generate the list of forecasters. Ten of the fifteen predicted below 1986-2015 average amounts overall, although of those ten, only five were below 90% with the lowest being 77% from DMC76. Meanwhile, one forecaster (IndTenn) was about 50% above normal, the other higher forecasts were closer to 10% above recent normals. The one high forecast skews the average somewhat, it is 1% higher than the median. The mean forecast is 99% of normal and the median is 98%. In general, somewhat higher outcomes were predicted in lower Michigan and southern Ontario, the trends further west and south are generally a bit below average. 

ConA is contest average (blue). A color code keeps that distinct from the 1986-2015 average (8615) which is aligned in one column at center of graph. The actual positions of MIN and MAX values are also moved around somewhat to reflect how wide a spread they present against the 1986-2015 average. When lined up with the titles, MIN is 50 per cent and MAX is 150 per cent of 1986-2015 average. Some max values are not to scale (would be off the page, as indicated by the use of >> before the entry). The scale otherwise is as close as I could make it while separating the letters to make it readable. Two or more names with commas between them have same forecasts.

During the course of the winter I will move "actual" in red into this table and keep it moving to the right as totals mount up (we hope or maybe not). Those amounts are already in this graph for stations that have seen snowfall so far. (next to station names). YXU has not been updating snowfall amounts yet, hoping to solve that (we found the data available last year). For the time being I will estimate their totals based on any clues available, but I hope to get an accurate total at the end of the contest. (just read on the subforum that observers may not be assigned this winter but there may be automated amounts, we'll perhaps have to judge the contest without YXU but anyway will estimate for now, also looking for an observer near YXU).

 

Table of forecasts for 2017-18 snowfall contest

This table will be "frozen" as of end of December, and a new post will track January snowfalls.

Red numbers indicate total seasonal snowfall to Dec 31 ... any Nov snow in orange next to station name and if there was October snow that is shown with two orange numbers for October and November, for example at GRR and MQT ... these are both monthly totals, the second number is the Nov snowfall not the combined Oct-Nov snowfall ... but the red number is seasonal combined total, so Dec snow is therefore the red number minus the orange number(s) if there are any.

November trace amounts not shown in the table, occurred at CMH, and for Oct and Nov in DTW, FWA, IND, LSE, MLI, PIA and STL and there was a trace of snow in ORD, MKE, GRB in October before measurable amounts in Nov, and in MQT in September before measurable amounts in Oct and Nov.

 

LOC ___ to date __ MIN (-50%) ____________________8615 avg __ ConA  _________________MAX (+50%)____

 

APN _0.5__ 14.6*__________ 72 RS_DM VP CI CM ST SP 80.4 TH MA 85.3 _HA MI DA IT  IW,CY 105

ORD _0.1___ 5.4_________ 27.6 DM_ CM,RS  TH _HA ST 38.1 SP,CI,VP 40.0 CY _ MA MI DA _____ IW __  IT 65

CLE _0.8_17.0_45.3 DM CI ST CM TH IT VP RS59.2HA MI 67.2 CY SP,IW MA ___  DA 89.7

CMH ___ 8.1_14.7 DM_CM ST RS,MA __TH_25.1 CI MI VP 28.4 SP,IT,HA DA CY IW 34

DTW ____________ 22.5 _______ 30.5 DM_ VP RS,SP CM 44.8 CI,HA MA CY TH 49.3 _IW _ST MI __ DA ______ IT 83

FWA ________ 11.4 __________ 22.2 TH __CM RS DM MA 34.0 HA SP 36.9 DA MI VP ST,CI,IW CY IT 47

GRR _0.4,0.2______33.5 ______57.8 DM_ST TH CM CI  77.1 SP RS,HA 80.3  MA DA MI CY, VP IW __ IT 106

GRB _0.6_12.6_37 VP TH DM CM,RS CY DA CI SP 52.1ST MI54.2  HA __ IW MA _______________________  IT 84

IND ___ 3.9 ___11 RS DM _ CM,CY HA MA,ST DA 23.5 MI 25.9 SP TH CI, VP IW  IT 35

LSE  _4.4___31.7 DM RS VP,CI,CY,ST DA TH43.7SP,HA,CM46.1 MI _MA IW __________________________   IT 81

YXU ______24.0_______ 55 CM VP _ CY,CI MA ST,TH DM 75.7 SP 77.9  RS,HA IW DA __ MI ________________ IT 145

SDF _ 0.2 ________7 CY_ MA ST,CI DM TH RS MI CM 13.1_13.9 IW,SP,HA DA ____ VP _______________________ IT 29

MQT 8.8,16.1_63.0_142 CI_ST DM CM RS TH VP MA192.4_199.8 SP HA IT IW DA MI  CY 233

MKE _0.2_4.8__35 DM,RS VP CM CY TH MA ST,CI 45.9DA SP49.2 HA MI __ IW ___________  IT 71

MSP 0.1,0.6_7.1__29 CI_ST VP RS DM CY HA,CM 48.1 DA SP 50.6 MA MI _ IW TH ___________________ IT 87

MLI ____ 9.6 _14 DM__RS CY,HA, CM VP TH DA30.9 CI ST SP33.5 MI __ MA IW _____________________  IT 58

PAH _ Tr ____4 CI ___ ST _MA ______ TH _ HA ___  MI _ CM 9.2 _ 10.9 RS,CY SP,IW DM ___ DA ____ VP ______ IT 23

PIA ____ 7.4_8.9 DM___RS __ ST,HA CM _MA VP 24.0=SP 24.9 MI TH CY DA _ IW _______ CI ____  IT 40

STL __3.5_10 HA,CM_MA,DM ST TH RS MI IW,VP DA SP18.118.4__ CY CI _____________________________>> IT 52

YYZ _________ 15.9____ 27 IW ____ RS __ TH __ CI,CM,SP 42.5 HA DM ST,MA 46.8 CY DA VP _ MI ________>> IT 104

Total snow to date __ 268.9" (27%)

31st _ Amounts are now updated through end of December. For YXU I am using the closest reliable snowfall in a similar zone relative to the Lake Huron snowbelt, namely Tillsonburg which is 40 km east of London (YXU not measuring snow this winter). So far 60.5 cm there (about 24 inches, seems to be about what one might expect for YXU which is usually similar to GRR for lake effect, but gets similar synoptic snow to YYZ or DTW). The contest will be scored both with and without this YXU alternative data.

 

... highest percentages of normal so far at ...

DTW (50), GRR (44), YYZ (38),  FWA (33), YXU (32), MQT (31), PIA (29), MLI (29), CMH (27), CLE (25),  GRB (24), STL (20), APN (18), and , ORD (14) and MSP (14), IND (13), MKE (10), LSE (9), SDF (2), PAH (0). 

* APN provisionally 0.4 for 24th (.04 LE and temps cold enough for snow, GRB 10:1 ratio on similar amount 0.3") will be adjusted if amount posted, and this amount will be retained for contest if not. As of Jan 1, 2018, this issue had not been resolved on Dec CF6.

 

Forecasters and snow totals, tie-breakers

... bold is current leader for Dec (ORD)

 

code _ FORECASTER __ SNOW TOTAL ______T-1 __ T-2 __ T-3  ___  (actual T-1 to date)

DM ____ dmc76 ________ 787.6 __________ 2.3 __ 3.8 __ 6.8

CM ____ cmillzz ________ 841.0 __________ 4.2 __ 8.2 _ 15.0

RS ____ Roger Smith ____ 851.0 __________ 6.5 __ 3.5 _ 17.2

ST ____ Stebo __________882.5 __________ 7.0 __ 8.0 _ 13.5

CI ____ Central Illinois ___ 883.5 __________ 9.0 _11.0 __ 9.5

TH ____ Thomp2mp _____ 915.2 __________13.1 _ 4.5 _ 18.0

VP ____ VPBob21 _______ 943.0 ___________ 6.5 _13.6 _ 9.9

HA ____ Hawkeye_wx ___ 995.0 ___________ 7.0 __ 9.0 _13.0

MA ____ Madwx ________ 999.5 __________ 10.2 __ 6.3 _ 9.2

 

c avg __ Contest average _1003.5 __________ 8.2 __ 7.7 _13.3 ______ 5.3 (final)

 

SP ____ Slow poke ______1012.0 __________ 8.0 __ 8.0 __ 8.0

 

8615 _1986-2015 avg _1013.9 ________ 8.5 __8.6_10.2

 

CY ____ Cyclone77 ______ 1052.0 _________ 6.4 __ 5.0 _16.8

MI ____ michsnowfreak __ 1111.0 _________ 9.8 __ 9.0 _12.1

DA ____ DAFF __________ 1128.3 ________ 10.2 __ 8.1 _13.3

IW ____ IWXwx _________1145.0 _________ 8.5 _ 11.0 _16.5

IT ____ IndTenn ________ 1506.0 _________15.0 __ 6.0 _20.0

First tie-breaker was a tie with cmilzz 1.1" below ORD (5.3") in Dec and cyclone77 1.1" above.

On to the second tie-breaker. 

 

(added Dec 21 _ copy of excel file of entries _ checked against your posts, no errors found, these are a check against late edits_ may be hard to read but mainly for contest integrity). I have attempted to make this column-oriented, the raw output looked different (as in non-aligned).

Validated Contest Entries

Locn__8615____ ST   RS    CY    MA    IW    CI    DM    SL    TH __ DA___ MI___ IT__  HA__VP_ CM_ c-avg_%norm_ MAX_ MIN_ 

        
APN    80.4_____77    72   105    85   105   74   72.6    80    81.1    97.6    92.1   100    90    73    75    85.3   106   105    72
ORD   38.1_____37    30    41    44    54    39    27.6    39   30.5    44.9    44.6    65    35    39    30    40.0    105    65    27.6
CLE    67.2_____47    55    69    72    70    46    45.3    70    48.5    89.7    64.4    50    60    53    48    59.2    88    89.7   45.3
CMH   28.4_____18    20    31    20    34    26    14.7    30    22.0    30.1    27.0    30    30    28    15    25.1    88     34    14.7
DTW   44.8_____55    40    48    46    52    45    30.5    40    49.1    69.2    55.4    83    45    38    43    49.3   110    83    30.5
FWA    34.0_____42    30    45    33    42    42    32.2    36    22.2    38.0    39.9    47    35    41    28   36.9    108    47    22.2
GRR    77.1_____68    80    90    83    91    71    57.8    78    69.6    83.1   86.8   106    80    90    70    80.3   104   106   57.8
GRB    54.2_____53    45    47    62    60    51    43.3    52    42.4    50.3    53.3    84    56    37    45    52.1    96     84    37
IND    25.9_____22    11    19    22    32    31    11.6    26    27.0    22.1    24.4    35    20    31    19    23.5    91     35    11
LSE    46.1_____35    34    35    51    52    35    31.7    45    42.1    41.2    47.7    81    45    35    45    43.7    _95    81   31.7
YXU    75.7_____70    80    64    68    81    64    73    _76    70.0    87.3    95.9    145    80    59    55    77.9   103   145    55
SDF    13.9_____8.5    10    7    7.5    15    8.5    9.7    15   _ 9.9    17.2    11.8  __ 29    15    21    12    13.1 __ 95    29    7
MQT  199.8____157  176  233  188   220  142  167.5  200  182.5  222.3  223.4  _216 _205  186  168  _192.4__ 96   233   142
MKE    49.2_____45    35    41    44    55    45    35.0   48    42.7    47.2    51.1   _ 71    50    38    40    45.9  __93    71    35
MSP    50.6_____34    38    43    52    57    29    42.5   50   59.8    49.9    52.6   __87    45    37    45    48.1  __ 95    87    29
MLI    33.5_____32    22    25    38    39    31    14.0    33    29    30.2  __34.5   __58    25    28    25    30.9  __ 92    58    14
PAH    09.2_____ 5    11    11    5.5    12    4    12.6    12   7.7    14.3   __ 8.8  ___23  __8    20   __9    10.9    119    23   _ 4
PIA    24.9_____18    12    28    21    30    37    8.9   _24   27.1    28.3 __ 25.7   __40    18    23    19    24.0  __ 96     40    8.9
STL    18.4_____14    15    22    12.5   17   23  12.5   _18   14.5    17.2  __16.1    _ 52    10    17    10    18.1    _ 98    52    10
YYZ    42.5_____45    35    48    45    27    40   44.6   _40   37.5   48.2   _55.5   _ 104    43    49    40    46.8    110   104    27

totsn 1013.9_882.5_851_1052_999.5 1145 883.5_787.6 1012 915.2 1128.3 1111 1506_ 995_943_ 841_1003.5__99_ 1506_787.6

Locn__8615____ST    RS    CY    MA    IW    CI    DM    SL    TH __ DA___ MI___  IT__  HA__VP_  CM_  c-avg_ %norm_ MAX_ MIN_   
Tie 1    8.5_____ 7    6.5    6.4   10.2    8.5    9    2.3    8    13.1 __ 10.2__  9.8__   15    7    6.5   4.2 __   8.2 __   96   15.0   2.3
Tie 2    8.6_____ 8    3.5    5.0    6.3    11    11    3.8    8    4.5  ___  8.1__   9.0__   6    9   13.6   8.2  __  7.7__    89    13.6   3.5
Tie 3   10.2___13.5  17.2  16.8  _9.2  16.5   9.5   6.8    8    18.0  __ 13.3__  12.1_  20  13   9.9   15.0  __ 13.3__  130    20.0   6.8
 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

The January update that was in this post has been moved to end of the thread (as of Jan 19th).

 

[Roger Smith]

Some milestones were passed on Jan 12th ...

(a) All contest locations now have measurable snow, PAH not only joined the party but moved instantly to third place in terms of percentage of contest normal (47%) behind only DTW and GRR. 

(b) We have the first instance of an actual snowfall passing a minimum contest snowfall, that being the 4.3" at PAH moving past minimum forecast from CI of 4.0". PIA has been close for several days (8.7" actual, 8.9" minimum forecast).

(c) One third of normal total snowfall has now been reached.

Note: January daily updates continue in what used to be the previous post, now moved to end of this thread.  

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Some milestones were passed on Jan 12th ...

(a) All contest locations now have measurable snow, PAH not only joined the party but moved instantly to third place in terms of percentage of contest normal (47%) behind only DTW and GRR. 

(b) We have the first instance of an actual snowfall passing a minimum contest snowfall, that being the 4.3" at PAH moving past minimum forecast from CI of 4.0". PIA has been close for several days (8.7" actual, 8.9" minimum forecast).

(c) One third of normal total snowfall has now been reached. 

Oh hell no, Paducah is not going to catch us after 1 snowfall

[Roger Smith]

Snow added since midnight has moved CMH back into third place and dropped PAH to fourth (in percentage of total contest normal snowfall). And this has brought CMH closer to DMC76's prediction of 14.7", the contest minimum, so the count now is one station passed (PAH), and two (CMH, PIA) open to being passed with any minor snow event. (since I posted this, PIA has moved past the minimum forecast of 8.9" sitting at 9.3" now and CMH has moved past two forecasts to 15.1").

After those three, the stations that are closest to passing our minimum forecast are MLI (at 10.0, contest minimum 14") and DTW (at 26.1", contest minimum 30.5"), then IND where actual 5.5" is half the minimum forecast of 11.0" ... some stations are still nowhere close to even our minimum (let alone normal), notably ORD, MKE, and LSE, with MSP trailing almost as badly. 

Will have to find out (perhaps in other threads) how ORD is doing compared to all-time low seasonal totals, sitting at a meagre 5.5" to date, MKE even worse at 4.9" and LSE only 5.7". (these all added some snow after this was posted, LSE now 10.7").

Note that the January snowfalls are being updated more or less daily (when snow happens) in a post that is now as of Jan 19th at the end of the thread.

[Roger Smith]

On 1/13/2018 at 6:39 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Oh hell no, Paducah is not going to catch us after 1 snowfall

At 4 p.m. I said ... Nope, it took two -- PAH now in the lead at 77% of contest normal (1986-2015), DTW now second at 60%, MKE despite adding some today trails the field at 15%.

As of end of the day, PAH added another four inches of snow and is the first station to move past its contest normal value, now at 113%. CMH has edged ahead of DTW 61-60 but DTW may have an incomplete total for the 15th, so that could change again. And MKE still lags behind the rest, but is now at 21% just ahead of SDF now at 23%. 

The entire contest list of 20 stations has seen 40% of their normal winter snowfall now. Northern IL and southern WI appear to be running 20-30% and MI-ON about 50-60%. 

[Roger Smith]

Now that everyone has caught up with their snow reporting, CMH and DTW are tied for second place in percentage of normal snow at 63% way behind leader PAH at 113%. The lowest percentage is now 24% at ORD as MKE edged ahead of them and also second last place MSP (25%). Overall 42% of the contest normal snowfall (1986-2015) has been received in the grid and MQT is not distorting that at 43% although they represent about one fifth of the total snowfall (86/412). Second in absolute terms is GRR at 44 inches, then YXU sub Tillsonburg has 36 inches, and DTW at 28 is ahead of both Alpena (27) and Cleveland (26). 

Daily updates in the table about five posts back (scroll, scroll). 

[thomp2mp]

Not to be nit-picky, but is there any easier way to read these standings?