olafminesaw Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: That trough dropping into the upper Midwest seems to be the main driver on that latest Gfs run. Probably Saturday we’ll have a good idea on said trough/vort position and strength. If it’s still even there. Lol Yep, the Euro is in a different world with respect to the trough. Meanwhile the impossible to interpret UKMET map seem to indicate a middle ground between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 GFS still looks good. Canadian which was a warm rain has now gotten colder and has rain changing to snow Christmas day. At least the trend is our friend...for once...haha. Either way gotta get the cold here fast on the 23rd and hold it for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Looks like the Euro has a changeover Christmas Day so we can manage some white stuff later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 threading the needle ... However, big movement by the 12z Euro. The cold air was no where close on previous runs to where it is on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Just now, MikeB_01 said: threading the needle ... However, big movement by the 12z Euro. The cold air was no where close on previous runs to where it is on this one. Hopefully, they will both move towards each other and plow right through us. A nice swath of 6-10 with that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Odds of a white Christmas (seems about right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: threading the needle ... However, big movement by the 12z Euro. The cold air was no where close on previous runs to where it is on this one. Yes, these situations are usually a narrow area of winners, unless a wave really blows up along the front to through some solid precip back into the cold sector. Its a double edge sword though, if it blows up to big and to soon, you end up on the wrong side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12z Euro says Merry Christmas to this forum. Seems to be model consensus that there will be snow in the air at some point during December 25th. Hope it stays that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Well... I guess it's possible, right? A prime overrunning event to end the calendar year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Now the EPS is on board with a 3" average and 60% chance of 1"+. I'd say 1-4" seems like a good bet, but 5-6 days is an eternity. It's good too see cold air arrive quickly and an expansion of the precip. though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, Mailman said: 12z Euro says Merry Christmas to this forum. Seems to be model consensus that there will be snow in the air at some point during December 25th. Hope it stays that way. Honestly, I like this set up. Not a ton of moisture, but the GFS and Euro have both been hinting at this little system for a while. I also think there is a little room for some extra moisture that isn't there now. The 12z , even though the precip map doesn't show it, the 500mb vorts on both are very similar. Will be nice to see some flakes in the air for the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Perfect setup for Christmas would be to get 2-3 inches overnight then have flurries and snow showers on and off all day with dropping Temps. Perfect scenery but nothing to disrupt travel. Then we lick our chops for a 48 hour over running event later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 One thing appears certain is it's going to turn much colder for Christmas and stay that way for a quite a while....into the new year maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Epic CMC run. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, Mailman said: Epic CMC run. lol. Who has two thumbs and is staying up for the Euro? Lel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 28 minutes ago, Mailman said: Epic CMC run. lol. Yeah really, lol Despite the run to run changes we've seen so far, one trend I've noticed is the overall progression eastward of the cold air the past 48 hrs. Will it correct back to the west, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 Wow....What a difference in the models. Canadian gives us 8-12 inches Christmas eve and Christmas day. 2 Storms GFS gives us Snow Showers and an 1nch or less. Maybe the 2 can get together and I'll even take a 1-3. Either way it will be cold enough I believe for snow so we just need precip to fall. It should be an interesting next 3 or 4 days tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The GEFS Eps Euro and Ukmet all have agree on 1-3", seems like a good call for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 According to the GFS, I’m in the ridges of laurel mountains and get nothing while the city gets 11” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Opportunities galore, but will we score? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Warm tongues and cutters. Hopefully those stop showing up on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Seems like the GFS is backing off on the strength of the cold after Christmas. Not helping our chances for the mid-week event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I don't care what the models say this far out. They have been terrible lately. If we can somehow score 1-3 sunday-monday so be it. I'm just not sold on us lucking out. It just feels like a warm tongue scenario. I see these things in my sleep now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 19 minutes ago, Mailman said: Seems like the GFS is backing off on the strength of the cold after Christmas. Not helping our chances for the mid-week event. Not much support from the it's ensembles, I wouldn't be too concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 8 hours ago, Mailman said: Seems like the GFS is backing off on the strength of the cold after Christmas. Not helping our chances for the mid-week event. GFS is out too lunch. JB talking about how the model is disagreeing with itself. MJO and Teleconnections indicate cold cold cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I’ll take the 6z gfs and the 3 feet of snow and sleet for next week. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I like the European as it has a negative tilt at 500mb vs gfs which is flatter-gfs seems out to lunch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 It looks like the Canadian and GFS are coming into agreement on our little 1-3 snow event Christmas eve and Christmas morning. If it were to verify it would be the perfect scenario for a White Christmas unless you are traveling overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, north pgh said: It looks like the Canadian and GFS are coming into agreement on our little 1-3 snow event Christmas eve and Christmas morning. If it were to verify it would be the perfect scenario for a White Christmas unless you are traveling overnight. That would be me. I would like it to hold off until after midnight christmas eve night. I wlll be home by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: That would be me. I would like it to hold off until after midnight christmas eve night. I wlll be home by then I thought Santa worked until early morning? hahaha! hohoho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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