jwilson Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Based on seasonal trends, the Euro should drop that look by 96 hours, if not sooner. Too early to buy in, especially with the warm air flux we're getting early next week. That said, the stalled system look reloading with dropping shortwaves is something I'm not sure I've ever seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 The storm system next week looks interesting but we won't have a clue what we could get or not get by the night before the event. These March systems are hard to predict well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, JPOracle said: The storm system next week looks interesting but we won't have a clue what we could get or not get by the night before the event. These March systems are hard to predict well I agree. I am curious and watching but we all know how these things usually end up for our area. I am anxious for spring but I would take a storm of any kind to add to the history books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishWxBurgher Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 GFS seems to be showing some interesting and strange things - could you all with more expertise weigh in? Looks like a Miller B, right? First image is at 102, and GFS looks to be all rain for us. 12 hours later, and the low has transferred off to the coast, and we're right on the fringe of that snow -- seems like a positive development for the GFS given the significant warm trend of earlier runs. And then hour 132 shows something I've never seen before -- why did the low go from off of the coast of New England back south off of the coast of Delaware?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishWxBurgher Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 So close!! Gah! Just need a slight shift. We can't be so unlucky as to miss every storm, right? RIGHT?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, IrishWxBurgher said: GFS seems to be showing some interesting and strange things - could you all with more expertise weigh in? Looks like a Miller B, right? First image is at 102, and GFS looks to be all rain for us. 12 hours later, and the low has transferred off to the coast, and we're right on the fringe of that snow -- seems like a positive development for the GFS given the significant warm trend of earlier runs. And then hour 132 shows something I've never seen before -- why did the low go from off of the coast of New England back south off of the coast of Delaware?? Yeah it's a miller Bish, it gets to far NW with the Primary though we get inundated with warmth and rain, after it transfers cold air wraps around and we turn back to snow. Not sure why the low is bouncing around up and down the coast, my guess is that won't happen and it's just the GFS struggling with the stalled out storm, or it's picking up on another piece of energy that dives down the trough and develops off the coat again. It does look a little better than 00z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, IrishWxBurgher said: So close!! Gah! Just need a slight shift. We can't be so unlucky as to miss every storm, right? RIGHT?? Heh... that snow map is a perfect illustration of how things roll in SWPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Heh... that snow map is a perfect illustration of how things roll in SWPA. I see the WTOD (Warm tongue of death) in my sleep now. It seems like almost every storm from every direction at any time of the Winter has one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 All the significant systems this year have been Miller Bs. Even the last storm that looked sort of like a Miller A initially, or some kind of hybrid, was really a true Miller B. Don't see many Miller A systems when the northern stream is dominant. We don't have that STJ conveyor belt of moisture at our disposal. Mostly a Nino effect. 1996 was the odd exception. That's mostly what I'm worried about with this next one; we could very well be out of it too far in one direction (too south, north, or, more likely, too west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 7 hours ago, jwilson said: All the significant systems this year have been Miller Bs. Even the last storm that looked sort of like a Miller A initially, or some kind of hybrid, was really a true Miller B. Don't see many Miller A systems when the northern stream is dominant. We don't have that STJ conveyor belt of moisture at our disposal. Mostly a Nino effect. 1996 was the odd exception. That's mostly what I'm worried about with this next one; we could very well be out of it too far in one direction (too south, north, or, more likely, too west). Latest runs appear to be too West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Latest runs appear to be too West Yep. The Euro went south, not insignificantly so (to the point where even D.C. was fringed), and the GFS came south, as well, from previous runs. The precip at onset (wave 1) is almost entirely rain. Maybe some minimal snows on the backend as the second wave pulls it back, then jumps off the coast for redevelopment. We have a high in a nice place, but the upper atmospheric lows seem to advance too far north, which brings WAA into our region. We'd need those lows to stay further suppressed to the south. The surface low actually looks to be a in decent spot at the Kentucky / Virginia border. As the transfer happens, we dry out (literally a snow hole, which may be some sort of convective feedback error, I'm not sure) and then precip reforms to our East, as per normal. Unfortunately, it seems we get marginal temps at the precisely wrong time. Of course changes remain likely; I'm very much not optimistic, however. We need a serious phasing and deepening system (meaning it gets captured and pulled inland from off the coast), or a Miller A, which we're definitely not going to get this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Dont look at the 18z gefs if you want a big storm. Almost every solution is a fringe job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 10 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Dont look at the 18z gefs if you want a big storm. Almost every solution is a fringe job. Really don't look at 6z, or any 00z for that matter lol. To many vorts playing deconstruction interference with each other so no look of a phasing 500mb closed off stalled low, just progressive junk sliding by to our south. If that's how it plays out I'm more than happy for it to miss us, I'll pass on cool and damp white rain that barely coats the grass. Still a few days out though so can't rule out a better look as we get closer. I'm not really invested in this either way, it's like watching your team in the last game of the season but the outcome doesn't affect playoff positioning and its all 2nd and 3rd string players in the lineup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I'm ditching this storm now. Sort of a "fool me once" measure. We're too warm for the first round of moisture. Lose what could possibly be a good batch of snow to rain. By the time the coastal gets going, the precip shield is east of us. I realize there's still time for the setup to change, I'm not convinced it does in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 We need a rule in this thread...no clown maps outside of 120hrs. Coming on here and seeing a 184hr snow map gets old after awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 CMC drawing me in....clown map in CPA thread. 12Z NAM is a bit south for us, but crashes 850s after some initial slop. Advertises a 6-10” snowfall in the border counties with a tight cutoff (surprise) in Allegheny. But the trend is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3k NAM even further north than 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Euro trending back toward us. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018031812/west-virginia/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180324-0300z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: Euro trending back toward us. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018031812/west-virginia/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180324-0300z.html Yes and a really interesting dynamic with the storm set up. Looks like three separate lows that trail each other with each one moving further and further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Then there's the MAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 14 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Then there's the MAN So depressing-Columbus and central PA get hammered and we’re in the hole splitting the uprights! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 That’s a fun map to save....can’t see it playing out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, Burghblizz said: That’s a fun map to save....can’t see it playing out that way I don't want to be negative but I actually could see us missing it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 51 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I don't want to be negative but I actually could see us missing it that way. Yeah, I could see it working out that way too. First we get warm tongue with one wave then on the second with energy transferring to the coastal low and you get a hole right over SW PA. Not saying it will work out that way but that's how it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 As a whole, 0z NAM is further south....but it gets rid of that weird snow hole and is actually better in SW Pa, as it brings 10” in to parts of Allegheny county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Euro seems to agree with that. I know it's wrong though because it shows a bulls-eye strip along Northern Allegheny and Westmoreland Counties lol These snow maps are probably considerably less accurate than normal though given the time of year. NWS discussion is not to bullish on any impacts outside of the ridges either so at this point not getting overly attached to this one, but hoping to be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 At this point there is good agreement on a decent 850mb fetch. The 00Z Euro is stronger, with the GFS being a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Seems all the mesoscale models look pretty good for this entire region (unless you're north of Allegheny county, I suppose). The globals are a bit less certain, mostly okay for PIT, though at this range I'd be more inclined to go with the mesoscales. You Pittsburgh folks also have the Canadian on your side, but that leaves the southern counties out of the juice. So the battle is NAM vs. globals. Of course we've had almost zero run-to-run consistency so this could all change by 12Z and/or 00Z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 I am assuming that the reason behind not too many posts in this thread means that everyone else (including me) is waiting for the dreaded....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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