Rd9108 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GFS came north a bit but it's a huge cry from where we need it to be at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 52 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: GFS came north a bit but it's a huge cry from where we need it to be at this juncture. Need to continue with better H5 position and strength. But hopefully this will be the start of a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 635 PM EST THU MAR 8 2018 PAZ014-020>022-029-075-WVZ001-002-090030- Armstrong-Butler-Beaver-Washington-Allegheny-Fayette-Brooke-Hancock- 635 PM EST THU MAR 8 2018 ...SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN BEAVER... SOUTHERN BUTLER...ALLEGHENY...SOUTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN BROOKE AND SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES... At 633 PM EST, snow showers along a line extending from near Zelienople to near Follansbee will move east at 35 mph. Expect brief visibility near zero and a rapid half, to one inch snowfall. Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Penn Hills... Mount Lebanon... Bethel Park... Ross Township... McCandless Township... Monroeville... Cranberry... Moon Township... McMurray... Weirton... McKeesport... This includes the following highways... Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania near mile marker 42. Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 19 and 58. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 22 and 61. Parkway North between mile markers 1 and 13. LAT...LON 4075 7933 4052 7949 4056 7956 4063 7958 4062 7961 4068 7966 4059 7977 4055 7977 4053 7970 4043 7970 4039 7977 4024 7981 4023 7979 4020 7987 4014 7985 4013 7978 4011 7979 4034 8060 4084 8019 TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 284DEG 29KT 4078 8020 4037 8055 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Roads getting icy around here. That thin layer of snow freezes fast on these exposed hilltops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 GFS has a mind of it's own. Now it teases us and brings snow into southern pa. Ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, north pgh said: GFS has a mind of it's own. Now it teases us and brings snow into southern pa. Ha ha Yeah it's trending in the right direction. I want to see other guidance jump on though. The NAM was pretty bad looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Have had a steady light to occasional moderate snow falling for the past couple of hours. No issues accumulating on all surfaces. Leaning towards looking forward to Spring, but I just love watching snow fall in the street lights, it never gets old. Looks really calm and peaceful out there with everything getting covered up with close to a half inch so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 40 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Yeah it's trending in the right direction. I want to see other guidance jump on though. The NAM was pretty bad looking. Interesting developments for sure, I was just about to put this threat to bed if 00z stayed far to the South. Another 100 mile jump and we could see some impact, I'd already be interested if I lived near the PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 WPC seems to think this thing has to come north? Would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, north pgh said: WPC seems to think this thing has to come north? Would be nice. GFS says no. It's way off compared to the NAM. So I don't think we have any clue what is gonna be the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: GFS says no. It's way off compared to the NAM. So I don't think we have any clue what is gonna be the final outcome. We'll see, hopefully yesterdays runs weren't fools gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The 32k NAM - and even the GFS - are really close. There's a shortwave up in Northern Canada, west of the 50/50 low feature, that seems to get in the way. The precip hits the Mason-Dixon as if it were an actual wall. The 3k NAM still isn't in range, but based on the current 12Z run, it actually looks really good. Of course I won't attempt to extrapolate it out beyond the 60 hour frame; it definitely has that distinct signature of the big storms, though. Of course the long-range NAM isn't hugely reliable, so we're not quite in the sweet spot yet. Plus with all the other models jumping all over, this will almost certainly come down to the wire. I should add: there are quite a few GFS ensemble members that get snow well into PA. 12 or 13 out of 20. Those aren't terrible odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 12zEuro has our snow still down at the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Anomalous ridges for much of the last three winters, but when height rises are needed for snow, none to be found. Kinda sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 This has been one of the weirdest storms to track that I can remember. Zero model consistency or consensus (though it's getting close) with about 60 hours left. I've certainly seen things change drastically even inside 36 hours. I'm going to hang on until the bitter end. This is basically winter's last gasp, though it has been choking for quite a while. ABC folks - Always Be Chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 34 minutes ago, jwilson said: This has been one of the weirdest storms to track that I can remember. Zero model consistency or consensus (though it's getting close) with about 60 hours left. I've certainly seen things change drastically even inside 36 hours. I'm going to hang on until the bitter end. This is basically winter's last gasp, though it has been choking for quite a while. ABC folks - Always Be Chasing. Unfortunately we may not have a choice, as the long range looks colder than normal. I think our best chance this weekend is to go all in on the northern vort, and hope to cash in with dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Gfs looks better to screw us. Major changes. I just don't think heights raise enough to impact us. Now our friends down south look to be in a decent spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Gfs looks better to screw us. Major changes. I just don't think heights raise enough to impact us. Now our friends down south look to be in a decent spot. That second piece of energy needs to drop down through MN instead of MI. Hey, at least we'll have an extra hour of daylight in the evening to watch our token snow showers and flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: That second piece of energy needs to drop down through MN instead of MI. Hey, at least we'll have an extra hour of daylight in the evening to watch our token snow showers and flurries. Just our luck this evolves into a decent event but manages to miss here... More NW flow snow showers for the win... I'll take those all day long in Dec and Jan but closing in on mid March it gets old. Since the whole thing might be 24hrs later maybe still time for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 42 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Just our luck this evolves into a decent event but manages to miss here... More NW flow snow showers for the win... I'll take those all day long in Dec and Jan but closing in on mid March it gets old. Since the whole thing might be 24hrs later maybe still time for a miracle. If you look back at our lack of storms, besides being flooded with warm air easily, we tend to be at the base of these steering troughs. Not sure why that is, possibly our location in relation to the Hudson Bay lows in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Well at least we got that one six inch storm in January with inch per hour rates....unfortunately, once again we have to sort and watch areas 100-150 miles from us get crushed as we miss the jackpot. This next one looks to be another. The only solace I take is that the MA has been screwed all winter, but of course that will likely change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: If you look back at our lack of storms, besides being flooded with warm air easily, we tend to be at the base of these steering troughs. Not sure why that is, possibly our location in relation to the Hudson Bay lows in the winter. I swear, we have to ve in the worst spot east of the Mississippi, and north of the VA/NC line for big storms. The number of 8+ storms that we miss by 50-200 miles is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 LOL The 3K NAM is just a kick to the groin. The pivot point is smack dab in the middle of Western PA; the storm slides south and then pivots north into Central and Eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 This one is cooked. At this point it's better it trends messier so we can avoid any heart break. 3k NAM would give the coast an absolute bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 9 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: If you look back at our lack of storms, besides being flooded with warm air easily, we tend to be at the base of these steering troughs. Not sure why that is, possibly our location in relation to the Hudson Bay lows in the winter. I've often wondered the same. Always figured the Aps had something to do with it but never considered Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 At least it looks like we have a warm up late week. I just want to put another winter of mostly nickel and dimer snows behind me now. Get this snowless chilly air out of here and get some spring air in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 It seems that this is calling apart completely for everyone. That is fine with me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Spring is OK, I dislike summer, so I’ll deal with whatever Mother Nature gives us-i admit I wouldn’t mind starting spring off with a foot of snow! Then get the camper ready for camping season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: It seems that this is calling apart completely for everyone. That is fine with me! Actually the opposite. New England is gonna get pounded and it's very close for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 10 hours ago, blackngoldrules said: At least it looks like we have a warm up late week. I just want to put another winter of mostly nickel and dimer snows behind me now. Get this snowless chilly air out of here and get some spring air in here. Yeah, the GFS has been trending warmer for next weekend, so that’s a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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