Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

11 hours ago, JPOracle said:

Well the big nor easter on Thursday Night into Friday on the east coast could bring one big massive wind storm for our area

Yea can’t beleive the board is t a little busier looks like we’re set for about a 1-3” type event up here...maybe 1-2 points north

[RitualOfTheTrout]

21 hours ago, JPOracle said:

Well the big nor easter on Thursday Night into Friday on the east coast could bring one big massive wind storm for our area

NWS might be extending wind advisories to the lowlands per latest discussion. Higher elevations look to really get rocked with wind.

How about Upstate New York? No doubt some areas up there will experience blizzard conditions at times even if sustained criteria is not met. We were pretty close, to bad this wasn't a little further South:

[MikeB_01]

00z 3k has a dusting for us. More rain on the way 

[Rd9108]

I'm guessing this upcoming pattern will favor further east. I doubt we get another chance at a big storm before the block breaks down. Honestly that's the part of winter i like the best tracking those fantasy storms that always screw us <84 hours out. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I'm guessing this upcoming pattern will favor further east. I doubt we get another chance at a big storm before the block breaks down. Honestly that's the part of winter i like the best tracking those fantasy storms that always screw us <84 hours out. 

I wouldn't totally throw the towel in now though. One thing the block will do is allow systems to take a more East to West track. Take this storm, all else being equal had it been further South we would be talking about the whole state of PA getting mauled rather than NY State.

I see at least 2-3 storm threats until the mid March time frame, now odds we get a big storm are low, they are probably better than average in March with blocking. Aside from that, its really coming down to the end. Realistically after this breaks down we are done tracking snow for 7-8 months, so might as well go all in.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

And there we have it, high wind watch:

High Wind Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1010 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-510-012315-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.HW.A.0002.180302T0000Z-180302T1200Z/
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-
Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton,
Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz,
Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry,
St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Sharon, Hermitage,
Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle,
Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville,
Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area,
Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana, Washington, Canonsburg,
Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Uniontown,
Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville,
New Martinsville, Fairmont, Morgantown, and Coopers Rock
1010 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a High Wind
Watch, which is in effect from 7 PM EST this evening through
Friday morning.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...This evening through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph, or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

&&

$$

[CoraopolisWx]

+ 7.7 Temp departure for February

Disgusting...

[jwilson]

February is the new torch month, it seems.  Been a few years now of below-average February snowfall. 

I know Pittsburgh is basically there, but I'll need a fairly significant storm in the next couple weeks to hit climo down here.

[Mailman]

High Wind Warning now, I see.  Should be interesting.

[north pgh]

I was supposed to go to Bradford and back tomorrow but ended up going today. From 2:00-6:00 I drove home in heavy steady rain. They are beginning to switch over to snow up there and are expecting 5-11 inches through tomorrow late morning. 

[MikeB_01]

45 mph wind gust at KPIT tonight so far

[KPITSnow]

I’m up in Ellwood City. Nasty wind, and snow already mixing in. Think there might be surprises in our northern areas.

[CoraopolisWx]

Well...mabey next time.

 

[jwilson]

With the NAO and AO streaming right back to positive integers, just as fast as they dipped negative, I think our winter window is slamming shut.

The only thing that might save it is the PNA also swinging back to positive.  I think the for sure last opportunity is around late next weekend.  Unfortunately, all the cold air is trapped over in Europe, so we have a marginal airmass to work with, but if we get a high in the right place, this one could work as the escalating western ridge places our needed trough in the right spot.

After that time frame, I think we head to permanent spring.  At least for the northern areas, even if winter ended today, this ended up being a good winter despite the Nina designation.  For the southern areas, not so much, though I didn't expect to get much snow this year.

[blackngoldrules]

I'm ready for spring at this point. It's very very rare anyway that we'd get something big this late in the winter. Anything we get now would probably be nuisance amounts and we get plenty of those all winter anyway. Of course, I say this and it's quite chilly today. Lots of sun but feels like January.

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[CoraopolisWx]

8 hours ago, blackngoldrules said:

I'm ready for spring at this point. It's very very rare anyway that we'd get something big this late in the winter. Anything we get now would probably be nuisance amounts and we get plenty of those all winter anyway. Of course, I say this and it's quite chilly today. Lots of sun but feels like January.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
 

I'm leaning in that direction also. Watching everyone else cash in has grown old, as it has for basically the last 20 years.

We did have 2-16-2003 which despite getting 15" seemed underwhelming, and 2-5-2010 had some impressive rates, but still had p-type issues for portions of our region.

This is all sour grapes, but I just remember how great Dec 1992-Jan 1996 was, and how we haven't come close to that kind of run since.

[IrishWxBurgher]

Euro 12z by 3/12 showing some tantalizing snowfall numbers (according to weather.us) -- note that it's the snow depth, so the numbers up in the NE are nuts from prior storms being included.  I know it's too far out for anything to be counted on, but nice to see something.  Here's hoping it shifts west a little bit, instead of shifting east and giving the mid atlantic yet another storm that we miss out on.

GFS 12z leaves us with little to nothing (it's SE, giving NW VA and SW WV more snow), and the Canadian seems to have a low way SE off of the coast. . . so I'm going to ignore them and hug the Euro

[MikeB_01]

next week


.

[Rd9108]

55 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

next week


.

It's so far away that there's no reason to sweat the details. I'm kind of rooting against this since I'm most likely starting my new job that week. 

[CoraopolisWx]

Hey if this time next week it’s already snowing and or wswarnings are posted, that’s fine. 

Being that the Canadian went from big storm to nothing in one run, we have a long way to go unfortunately. 

[CoraopolisWx]

Despite my sour grapes, I will say all three major models have shown a strong storm signal for next Sun-Mon.

Obviously the details are at least 5 days away, but all three showing a storm this far out, is never a bad thing.  

[north pgh]

1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Despite my sour grapes, I will say all three major models have shown a strong storm signal for next Sun-Mon.

Obviously the details are at least 5 days away, but all three showing a storm this far out, is never a bad thing.  

My prediction. 75% chance first storm hits philly and east coast. 75% chance the 2nd storm hits someone else. 10% chance the storm hits western pa. 90% chance western pa gets fringed. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

7 hours ago, north pgh said:

My prediction. 75% chance first storm hits philly and east coast. 75% chance the 2nd storm hits someone else. 10% chance the storm hits western pa. 90% chance western pa gets fringed. 

Per 6z GFS Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding..... Lol actually verbatim its an 8-12 inch storm, yeah better totals further East, but I'd be ok with this. Storm stalls and just keeps throwing precip back for about 24 hours. Now if we can only hold this look and nudge it a bit NW over the next 200 hours we are golden. It happens March 12th - 14th, so it has a good date going for it.

[jwilson]

I'm waiting until we get into NAM range and then ride whatever it shows.  The NAM has really led the way for much of this winter.

I won't be surprised by any outcome, however.  Seems storms have favored a coastal redevelopment and run this year.

[stjbeautifulday]

On 2/7/2018 at 6:57 AM, JPOracle said:

Somebody in the north and west side of the metro like in Beaver or Butler county might get a foot from this. There is some really high rates ongoing

I don’t know-we’re on the edge of Beaver County in Moon-near the Hopewell line and it’s freezing rain.  Has been since I woke up 40 minutes ago. Looks like it may change back.  To my untrained eye we may have an inch-maybe a hair more.  

[stjbeautifulday]

What days are we looking at for storms?  Just catching up now-

[blackngoldrules]

My prediction. 75% chance first storm hits philly and east coast. 75% chance the 2nd storm hits someone else. 10% chance the storm hits western pa. 90% chance western pa gets fringed. 

That's usually a pretty safe bet around here. Lol

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[Rd9108]

Just prepare yourselves for disappointment now. I could very well see this first storm hitting Philly and NYC and then the next storm hitting south of us. 

[north pgh]

Philly's under WSW for 3-6 inches with pockets of 13 inches of heavy snow with one inch per hour rates.

Don't see those forecasts much around here anymore.

 

[jwilson]

28 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Just prepare yourselves for disappointment now. I could very well see this first storm hitting Philly and NYC and then the next storm hitting south of us. 

I think chances are very low of anything significant only because we need the trough in a very specific location, or a southern-stream overrunning event.  The former is very rare in general - I can't even remember the last time we saw an Apps-runner (early 90s?), while the latter is typically non-existent in Nina winters.  This winter has been characterized by low-bombs off the Jersey coast.  Miller B systems are never large enough to throw snow back into Western PA.  Even places like Harrisburg get shafted by them.

I do believe it's the best potential we've seen all year, but I still doubt we get much.  Like I said earlier, I'm waiting for NAM range before I even consider it.