Burghblizz Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 If the rates are good, then that can be overcome. Not sure that will be the case here, but we’ll see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 feet of snow overnight tonight..... ....just happens to be in the form of melted precipitation as it falls through the air.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 18Z NAM looks good for Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 We got NAM'd. Here's the 3K through Saturday night: Here's the 18Z GFS for the same: I'm more inclined to believe the GFS. The retreating high pressure isn't in a great spot to keep the warm tongue at bay, as far as I can tell. The NAM keeps it frozen for the duration of the event, or just about, and I think that's the primary difference. GFS has a transition scenario. The NAM has led the way a few times this winter, but it is also usually too wet. I guess we'll see if the NAM stays on-board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 40 minutes ago, jwilson said: We got NAM'd. I'm more inclined to believe the GFS. The retreating high pressure isn't in a great spot to keep the warm tongue at bay, as far as I can tell. The NAM keeps it frozen for the duration of the event, or just about, and I think that's the primary difference. GFS has a transition scenario. The NAM has led the way a few times this winter, but it is also usually too wet. I guess we'll see if the NAM stays on-board. I think the main thing going for the NAM this season, is the meso-type nature many of the storms have exhibited so far. This weekends storm looks to be in the NAM's wheelhouse again. It would be nice to score another win during this dissapointing pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 Looks like a thunderstorm going through the southern parts of area. I can hear a few distant rumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 It's hammering rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I saw some lightening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 This has definitely been a “west of city” winter. Been a few storms where either rain changed to snow, or the tongue affected east more. Also, was that little surprise gem a few days ago. have a feeling east will do better with this. 18Z NAM had close to 8” at LBE. So maybe we can eek out 2-4” west to east, with some upside if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Might've had something spin up in Uniontown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 658 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 PAC051-160015- /O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180216T0015Z/ Fayette PA- 658 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EST FOR SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY... At 658 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northwest of Ursina, or 11 miles southeast of Connellsville, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. Locations impacted include... Farmington... Chalkhill... Ohiopyle... Mill Run... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 3978 7936 3979 7938 3978 7939 3977 7938 3976 7940 3975 7939 3974 7941 3973 7939 3972 7939 3983 7966 4000 7953 3996 7935 3986 7942 3982 7937 3980 7937 3979 7935 TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 278DEG 45KT 3992 7942 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Wouldn’t it be nice one day not to say “ if this was snow...”, because it actually would be snow. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Lots of power outages and damage reported from locals down there in Uniontown, i think we had a tornado down there in that area, and the night isn't over yet, these spin ups look likely all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, JPOracle said: Lots of power outages and damage reported from locals down there in Uniontown, i think we had a tornado down there in that area, and the night isn't over yet, these spin ups look likely all night Yeah.. does sound that way. Roofs blown off, garage got crushed, and I heard something about a couple trailers demolished. Assume there will be a damage survey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 Listening to my police scanner. A lot of street flooding in the area. Especially around Freeport road and shaler area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 43 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Wouldn’t it be nice one day not to say “ if this was snow...”, because it actually would be snow. Lol I was just thinking the same thing lol. I'd settle for a 1/3 of this all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Burghblizz said: I saw some lightening Had some thunder and lightening here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Its an safe bet this was an tornado, was an debris ball picked up on radar i wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 12Z NAM is moving our sat eve storm south. If trend continues we will be looking at an inch or so. It wasn't going to be a big storm anyway but was hoping for a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 hours ago, north pgh said: 12Z NAM is moving our sat eve storm south. If trend continues we will be looking at an inch or so. It wasn't going to be a big storm anyway but was hoping for a little more. Agree but remember were going to be the 70s Tuesday with severe thunderstorms possible again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Tomorrow looks much less impressive now. And the GFS says what return to winter? Appears that damn groundhog lied again. I think there's still too much uncertainty in the long-term for sure, but at least for the next 7 to 10 days, we have spring until nature decides we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Uniontown tornado confirmed. Crazy, because that is the first Pgh area tornado in February in 50 years. (except for those Daily spinups near Creighton n ‘at) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Correction: first EVER February confirmed, with those records being kept since 1950. It’s the only month never to have one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Seems the consensus is a general 1-2” for tomorrow evening. Would like to see more, but considering the pattern, I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 5 hours ago, Burghblizz said: Uniontown tornado confirmed. Crazy, because that is the first Pgh area tornado in February in 50 years. (except for those Daily spinups near Creighton n ‘at) hahahaha real funny, not daily honestly maybe once every while with strong thunderstorms, it's the steam plants i swear, steam currents cause some tornado genesis, type factors for landspouts and non-supercell tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Public Information Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 542 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR UNIONTOWN IN FAYETTE COUNTY WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... Location...Uniontown in Fayette County western Pennsylvania Date...02/16/2018 Estimated Time...643 PM EST Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF1 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...105 mph Maximum Path Width...0.25 miles Path Length...2 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...39.9087N / -79.727386W Ending lat/Lon...39.90087N / -79.696107W * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in NWS Storm Data. ...Summary... The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh PA has confirmed a tornado in Uniontown and North Union Township in Fayette County western Pennsylvania on 02/16/2018. The tornado started near the intersection of Phillipi Avenue and Pittsburgh Street then traveled eastward for two miles before lifting near Kennedy Street. The worse damage was located between Monroe avenue and North Gallatin avenue where several buildings lost either part or their entire roof. A four level senior living building lost nearly half its roof. There was also numerous power lines down and a destroyed car port on North Gallatin Avenue. Several homes in the Greenpoint / Laurel estates area suffered damage to their roofs as well. The track just missed Laurel Highlands high school and continued just to the south of the school and lifted in the Woodview Terrace area. In that region, tree damage occurred. Through the entire path of the storm, hardwood trees were snapped or uprooted. Several pine trees were uprooted as well. This is the first confirmed tornado in the Pittsburgh area of responsibility in February since 1950 when records commenced. This is the 11th tornado to hit Fayette county since 1950 and the 3rd EF1 tornado. This marks the third year in a row in Pennsylvania with at least one February tornado: 2016: Lancaster and Bradford 2017: York, Luzerne, and Lackawanna 2018: Fayette This information can also be found on our website at weather.gov/pittsburgh. Additional severe weather history can be found at weather.gov/pittsburgh/torclimo For reference: the Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0...Wind speeds 65 to 85 mph EF1...Wind speeds 86 to 110 mph EF2...Wind speeds 111 to 135 mph EF3...Wind speeds 136 to 165 mph EF4...Wind speeds 166 to 200 mph EF5...Wind speeds greater than 200 mph $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Most surprising thing is that there wasn't any injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Nws isn't that enthused with anymore more than a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 47 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Nws isn't that enthused with anymore more than a coating. I feel there going to be wrong, there underestimating the models Its that elevation dependent type snowfall, couple inches looks like an safe bet for anyone above 850 feet or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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