Burghblizz Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 GFS is odd to me with the P types. Thought the overall evolution looked slightly better, with more robust QPF....but it winds up with a crippling ice storm. Not sure we know anything more than 2 hours ago. Time to set a 5:00 AM alarm and see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Burghblizz said: GFS is odd to me with the P types. Thought the overall evolution looked slightly better, with more robust QPF....but it winds up with a crippling ice storm. Not sure we know anything more than 2 hours ago. Time to set a 5:00 AM alarm and see what happens Agreed. Let's hope we wake up to a surprise. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 W S W agc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1144 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 PAZ016-021-022-071245- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WW.Y.0008.180207T0700Z-180207T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KPBZ.WS.W.0002.180207T0700Z-180207T2300Z/ Jefferson-Allegheny-Armstrong- Including the cities of Punxsutawney, Brookville, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, and Ford City 1144 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch are expected. Significantly more snow and ice is expected in the northwestern portion of each county than the southeastern portion. * WHERE...Jefferson, Allegheny and Armstrong Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Hrrr has the low dancing all over the place once it finally hits our latitude. It doesn't look right. Almost like the low is following the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Straight to sleet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Straight to sleet lol.Yep. This is about what I was expecting. The models almost always underestimate that overriding warm air. I'm probably going to end up seeing very little snow out of this. Just ice and slop mainly. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 After seeing the nam, gfs, and nws up totals to 5-8" for me I started to get excited. Should have really learned my lesson by now with these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Nice discussion on PBZ at 3:42 this morning I’ve included their updated snow map. Giving much high influence to the HiRes modeling rather than the GFS and EURO, the cutoff of the storm is intense. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Updated ice map. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 At least right now, I am in the middle of some pretty heavy snow. Started about 15 minutes ago and the road and driveway are already covered. Who knows what will happen but at least I got to see some heavy snow, albeit in the wee hours of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Seems that initial burst pushed some warm air in but the columns cooled a bit with the heavier precip. Been mainly snow for the past hour and half with a little over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just shy of 2" and it seems to have switched over to pure frozen nonsense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 It appears the backend is approaching Columbus, so hopefully the painful radar watching won’t last much past noon. Lol Congrats though to the north and west crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Well that was interesting drive in.... Contemplated taking the day off, but ended up making the drive in, and probably good I did. Left home and it was 27 degrees and heavy snow, got to work and it is 30 degrees and moderate freezing rain. It was odd seeing the heavy snow rapidly change to sleet, could hear the pingers hitting the car, then suddenly after driving a little further South it was just straight zr. Probably won't be long until plain rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said: Well that was interesting drive in.... Contemplated taking the day off, but ended up making the drive in, and probably good I did. Left home and it was 27 degrees and heavy snow, got to work and it is 30 degrees and moderate freezing rain. It was odd seeing the heavy snow rapidly change to sleet, could hear the pingers hitting the car, then suddenly after driving a little further South it was just straight zr. Probably won't be long until plain rain here. Its amazing how much elevation changes occur from New Ken southward. The mountain going to Penn Hills and Plum is likely super horrible right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: It appears the backend is approaching Columbus, so hopefully the painful radar watching won’t last much past noon. Lol Congrats though to the north and west crew. It's going to be interesting to see the snow fall map of this storm once it's over. I have a sneaking suspicion that if you could overlay the storm totals over the past 3 years for the bigger storms you would see a pretty narrow band bisecting Allegheny / Westmoreland that really has been fringed in just about all directions after this one is all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Somebody in the north and west side of the metro like in Beaver or Butler county might get a foot from this. There is some really high rates ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 As of 6:30 AM 2.7" new snow, heavy big flakes are hissing as they hit the ground. I haven't heard that sound in a long time. Feels like it could sleet at any time. 26 degrees. 0.32" melted liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, TeaysValleyWV said: As of 6:30 AM 2.7" new snow, heavy big flakes are hissing as they hit the ground. I haven't heard that sound in a long time. Feels like it could sleet at any time. 26 degrees. 0.32" melted liquid. You have a decent shot and pulling out 6+ from this one in Cranberry I would think, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: You have a decent shot and pulling out 6+ from this one in Cranberry I would think, Nope, just turned over to freezing rain at 7AM. Didn't make it to 3" and I'm in northern Cranberry Twp. 27degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 freezing rain and heavy snow now in creighton, got to 3 inches, everything glazed over in a matter of minutes after changeover. 1 to 2 hour period of freezing rain might be real bad with the rates ongoing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Straight freezing rain in Bethel. Roads are a slushy mess and a little icy but nothing my 4wd couldn't handle. I think maybe I picked up close to an inch of snow before it turned to freezing rain. The way the temps have really jumped up here, won't be surprised if this ends up being plain rain shortly. This had high bust potential going into it, especially here, thanks to that infamous wtod. Not surprised at all after dealing with a lot of these types of storms over the years. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 44 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said: Nope, just turned over to freezing rain at 7AM. Didn't make it to 3" and I'm in northern Cranberry Twp. 27degrees. Dang, well that leaves little hope for anyone else. Really a shame we didn't have a better positioned high pressure to the North for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just shoveled 1.5" cement, plain rain for last 20 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 A forecast of 1-10” for Allegheny county could have been accurate - lol. Great NWS discussion this morning....especially noting that the “messaging” would be “difficult” I also caught part of Ch 2 this morning. I know we pick on JV (rightfully so), but the newer black guy on there this morning had a great presentation. Did a good job of illustrating the variability, which is always tough for people to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Ron Smiley is his name....now that Bowman is retired, he could be a better source. I don’t watch TV Mets much since the old school guys retired and there are infinitely more tools now. But happened to catch it this morning because I was curious how things played out condition-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Looking like the Hi-Res NAM and short range models really nailed how this was going to play out. GFS and Euro were a bit colder and slower with the WAA, but 3K NAM had been adamant for quite awhile were the rain / snow line would setup. Sucks cause we missed a really nice snow storm by a very small margin here, but then what else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 38 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Dang, well that leaves little hope for anyone else. Really a shame we didn't have a better positioned high pressure to the North for this one. I'll admit I didn't take into account the northern stream system passing to our north, helping to pull in just enough warm air aloft to affect our snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Ron Smiley is his name....now that Bowman is retired, he could be a better source. I don’t watch TV Mets much since the old school guys retired and there are infinitely more tools now. But happened to catch it this morning because I was curious how things played out condition-wise. I'm with you on this, in the "off winter" months I will tune in to get quick summary for what to expect the next few days on occasion, but during winter I feel between NWS discussions / Obs and discussions here / and all the tools available I am better prepared for what to expect, and I enjoy doing it so it's win win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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