stjbeautifulday Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Anyone watching the HRRRs that are coming out? Western AGC never fully switches to rain. This is super close. Reading chatter on twitter again about how the modeling is turning north too early. Something to keep an eye on. North too early does what to totals in wester AGC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, stjbeautifulday said: North too early does what to totals in wester AGC? I should explain it more like this. This system will transfer eventually to the east coast. Systems like this always do. The chatter is coming from the NAM and the GFS (most modeling for that purpose) tends to make this happen later than what usually ends up happening. So there is doubt in the twitterverse about the modeling right now and suspect that the rain/snow line will be slightly farther south and east... We can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, stjbeautifulday said: North too early does what to totals in wester AGC? That being said, more northerly track is bad. More north =more warmth = more rain. The further east this thing can track, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 New NAM has a crazy gradient of snow across AGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I should explain it more like this. This system will transfer eventually to the east coast. Systems like this always do. The chatter is coming from the NAM and the GFS (most modeling for that purpose) tends to make this happen later than what usually ends up happening. So there is doubt in the twitterverse about the modeling right now and suspect that the rain/snow line will be slightly farther south and east... We can only hope. Are meteorologists saying this? I always look at crankywxguy on twitter and he seems to believe it doesn't come as far north and goes more southeast. That cut off is brutal right now on models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, southpark said: Are meteorologists saying this? I always look at crankywxguy on twitter and he seems to believe it doesn't come as far north and goes more southeast. That cut off is brutal right now on models Cranky is the main one i am referring to. Like i said in a post last night, his analysis is usually pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Cranky is the main one i am referring to. Like i said in a post last night, his analysis is usually pretty good. Yeah I always check out his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Other thing noticeable about the NAM. It is the furthest SE it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Winter Storm Warning for Washington County. up to .3 in of ice. OUCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lvfd404 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Winter Storm Warning for Washington County. up to .3 in of ice. OUCH Just got it for WV northern panhandle too. Very little mention of snow accumulation though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3Km NAM is no bueno... Holding on to my transfer theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 How good is the RAP? 0z didn't look too bad snow wise for area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, southpark said: How good is the RAP? 0z didn't look too bad snow wise for area RAP has a really nice thump in at the onset of the system. It gets really warm though. 35° at KPIT at one point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Winter Storm Warning for Washington County. up to .3 in of ice. OUCH Honestly... Lol One of these days a storm will bullseye Allegheny / Westmoreland rather than being a battle zone of extremes one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 3Km NAM is no bueno... Holding on to my transfer theory The Ferrier rime correction snow map might be overcorrecting a bit, but it does show that dampening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Winter Storm Warning for Washington County. up to .3 in of ice. OUCHI'm right on the border of Allegheny and Washington Counties. I can practically throw a rock into Washington County from where I live. Makes me wonder how much ice I'm going to get.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: I'm right on the border of Allegheny and Washington Counties. I can practically throw a rock into Washington County from where I live. Makes me wonder how much ice I'm going to get. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk I am on the border as well and was wondering the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just noticed that NWS ticked my accumulations up to 1-3 tonight and 2-4 tomorrow. A small change but at least a change in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 What we all have to remember is the hrrr is not a perfect model. It may be close to precip amount but not type. Rain/snow line could go further north or further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, north pgh said: What we all have to remember is the hrrr is not a perfect model. It may be close to precip amount but not type. Rain/snow line could go further north or further south. Good because the HRRR looks quite icy right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Looks like the NAM made decent improvements from the 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, OutnOakmont said: Looks like the NAM made decent improvements from the 18z... It also put out a lot of freezing rain/ice though as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Gfs looks decent too. GFS looks more than decent actually. Might need a WSW for AGC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Interested to see the GFS snow output. It’s bringing some pretty heavy QPF across the M/D line but have to see where that intersects with profiles that support mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Interested to see the GFS snow output. It’s bringing some pretty heavy QPF across the M/D line but have to see where that intersects with profiles that support mostly snow. 4 in KAGC. 5 in KPIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 4 in KAGC. 5 in KPIT 17 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Interested to see the GFS snow output. It’s bringing some pretty heavy QPF across the M/D line but have to see where that intersects with profiles that support mostly snow. Sorry wrong run. /still 4 in KAGC but 8 in KPIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Latest from PBZ: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Advisories have been upgraded to warnings for portions of southeastern Ohio, the WV panhandle, and Washington county PA with the latest update as recent model runs show above average consensus and continuity in regards to QPF, warm air advection, and more significant ice accumulation. Best matching analogs also point towards potential for significant icing as well. Still assessing snow amounts as new 00Z data comes in...but additional upgrades are definitely a possibility for north of a line from Zanesville to Dubois with snow totals possibly reaching warning criteria. Tricky forecast as the difference between observing either 6-8" of snow (possibly more) or over a quarter inch of ice will likely be less than the distance across any county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, meatwad said: We never get .57 inches of Freezing rain. Maybe sleet. If most of this falls as snow instead then we have our 6-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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