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Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018

north pgh

By north pgh,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MikeB_01

MikeB_01

Posted
Posted

A welcomed map for those of us in southern AGC and even further south. I have followed this guy pretty closely for a while on Twitter. He goes by the name of @crankyweatherguy . He is generally very detailed and good. He is thinking that the system that comes out of the plains takes a more zonal apporach than what the modeling is indicating and tracking much further east before gaining latitude. He cites the flatter HPs off the west and east coasts and lack of a lead feature head of the storm.  I feel like there is a lot of intuition here, but like i said, he is generally pretty good. For our sake, I hope he is right.

Screen Shot 2018-02-05 at 9.54.07 PM.png

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north pgh

north pgh

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I feel good about the trends today. I think we are looking at a solid 5-8 across allegheny county north to south. With most slop storms the heavier snow stays up around I-80 and we get our 1-2 then mix with lighter precipitation. This storm will have the heavier precip in our area which I believe will keep us in the snow longer. We are due for one of these as long as this storm doesn't move any further north. Then we will be looking at our heaviest snow in a while mid to late morning on Wednesday. :snowing:

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MikeB_01

MikeB_01

Posted
Posted

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
256 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

MDZ001-OHZ050-059-068-069-PAZ014>016-020>023-029-WVZ001>004-
061600-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0008.180207T0700Z-180207T2300Z/
Garrett-Jefferson-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Butler-Clarion-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
Marshall-
Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland MD,
Grantsville, Steubenville, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville,
Caldwell, Woodsfield, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville,
Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area,
Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana, Washington, Canonsburg, Weirton,
Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, and Moundsville
256 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an
inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest, west central and western
Pennsylvania, east central Ohio, western Maryland and northern
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel
conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday.
Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988,
posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter
@NWSPittsburgh

&&



.

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MikeB_01

MikeB_01

Posted
Posted
Guess they aren't buying it. We probably shouldn't either knowing how are area does with these setups. We'll find out soon. 

I really think they take the conservative approach a lot on initial forecasts. If 12z looks better and short range modeling comes into view, they can always change it and upgrade


.
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Burghblizz

Burghblizz

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

PBZ has low end snow of 1 in and high end of 8 in for mt Lebanon. In other words, they still don’t know.


.

Need to Add the proper context. That’s a page that is considered experimental that shows low end (90% chance it’s higher) and high end (10% chance it’s higher)

i think it’s useful (and fun for weenies) to be able to understand the variability and ceiling of the threat. But it likely won’t ever be used mainstream because people would simply digest it as 1-8”

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted

Advisory for my back yard is only up to 2 inches which is the same as Morgantown, but I think I'd fair a little bit better than there. The storm track is just a little to far to the west to really give our whole region a decent 4-6 inch hit. Snow maps might look good but they won't handle this situation well at all. An example, if its 32 degrees at 6am, but then by 6:30am some level in the column goes up to 35 the snow maps still assumes everything that falls between 6am and 9am is snow. Couple that with the fact that 8 out of 10 times the warm air intrusion is faster / further north than modeled and I think NWS calls are good.
 

The further west you get from the City, and especially NW the better you look. NW Allegheny could end up with 5 inches while SE gets 1.5 then rains most of the day. Fingers crossed maybe we see a slight SE correction in modeling at 12z today, but I'm not counting on it. Theme has been to correct ever so slightly NW in the last 24-48 hours this winter but every situation is different so leaves the window cracked for some help.

Winter Weather Advisory 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
256 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

PAZ031-073>076-WVZ012-021-509>514-061600-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0008.180207T0700Z-180207T1300Z/
Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-
Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg,
New Kensington, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle,
New Martinsville, Fairmont, Morgantown, Coopers Rock, Kingwood,
Bruceton Mills, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton, Parsons,
Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas, and Canaan Valley
256 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 inches or less and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of
  an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Pennsylvania and northern West
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday.
  Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988,
posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter
@NWSPittsburgh

&&

$$
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OutnOakmont

OutnOakmont

Posted
Posted

I've only been in Pittsburgh for about 2 years now. I grew up in Central Maryland, right on the Chesapeake Bay. Every snowstorm growing up was a battle with the rain/snow line as warm air would come off the Bay. I thought for sure when I moved up here to Pittsburgh I'd leave that behind. But alas, the damn rain/snow line continues to haunt me. Smh. 

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I have to say that going with advisories is odd to me. 3-5 inches of snow with a tenth an inch of ice on top seems like it should merit a warning to me. 


Criteria for warning is 6in of snow in 12 hours or quarter inch of ice. In both cases it must affect at least 50% of the county. Baring a big model bust neither will be met.

 

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

It stinks:weep: that we get rain saturday

Not to get ahead of tonight's event, but yeah, this is probably the last shot for at least 7-10 days. Looks like we start to feel the effects of the prolonged tropical forcing of MJO in phase 7. Forecasts are showing it getting into 8 though by the last week of Feb. Model forecasts will likely be volatile for awhile with the PV split that is forecast to happen although I was reading an article that said splits favor Europe \ Asia for cold rather than NA. Either way, if MJO does make it to 8, and we get some blocking from the PV the last week of Feb through week 2 of March could open the door again. Probably not sustained cold, unless the PV split effects us more directly, but enough cold around that there is a chance. By that time period though I'm really looking to go big or go home, snow pack retention for more than a few days is really non existent once you get into March barring a really below normal pattern.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

KPIT tweeted their snow total for the season at 34", about double from last year at this time.   My total is 41.1", a lot of one inchers in there like last night.  I would categorize this as a successful snow season who far with more to come.

I agree, its been your typical Pittsburgh winter. We get a couple moderate 4-6 inch events and several smaller 2-4 type deals. Tack on another 3-4 inches tonight and we are at almost climo for seasonal snowfall. It's been a good winter thus far if you keep your expectations tied to an average winter season here. Frustrates those looking for a blizzard, but its average.

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MikeB_01

MikeB_01

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

8OY1HDz.png

This looks absolutely terrible. Just another wasted storm. Hope it's wrong but it's within 24 hours now. 

I'm not ready to buy this map yet. The path that LP takes on the modeled surface map makes now sense. 500mb looks much better for a more easterly track. Call me optimistic, but i don't like the Nam's path.

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