KPITSnow Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I mean the trend is not our friend. 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I mean the trend is not our friend. That might be one of the best euro runs honestly. It has been warm the whole time. Remember, the storm several weeks ago up until 48 hours out showed rain, and an inch 1-3 inches on most models and we ended up 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: That might be one of the best euro runs honestly. It has been warm the whole time. Remember, the storm several weeks ago up until 48 hours out showed rain, and an inch 1-3 inches on most models and we ended up 6+ Agreed. The Rain/Snow line has stayed pretty consistently splitting AGC, but before 12z yesterday the whole county was pretty solidly in the rain. Still about 36 hrs to go. Lots of time to keep the SE train going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 18z Nam (warmer than the 3Km) showing period of sleet or freezing rain on the thermal profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Gfs is on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Bernie has us at 3-6 FWIW not sure how reliable he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: Bernie has us at 3-6 FWIW not sure how reliable he is. He has his ups and downs. He doesn't rely on models but the problem I believe is our area is impossible to forecast 100% because of how warm air likes to interact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I am going to be a sad sad man here in Morgantown while its pouring rain and places 15 miles to my north are getting dumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: He has his ups and downs. He doesn't rely on models but the problem I believe is our area is impossible to forecast 100% because of how warm air likes to interact. Not a bad call at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 58 minutes ago, SteelCity08 said: Not a bad call at all. No it's not at all. I was just referring to his accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3-6 inches and some ice appears to be likely, will we have a winter storm watch issued soon is the question now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, JPOracle said: 3-6 inches and some ice appears to be likely, will we have a winter storm watch issued soon is the question now? I bet it depends on the 0z runs maybe even the 6z. We are in the battle zone and 25 miles makes a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Also worth noting about the mid week storm. The UKie seems to be colder than all other models. The QPF looks a little lower, but but from what i see on those maps, the cold air makes it far enough south that it looks likes most of us would be in the snow zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: I bet it depends on the 0z runs maybe even the 6z. We are in the battle zone and 25 miles makes a huge difference. this is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Scratch what i just said. I found a better map. UKie looks pretty inline with everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: No it's not at all. I was just referring to his accuracy. Was trying to quote the post you replied to but messed up and was too lazy to fix it lol. I used to follow him a lot back in the day but got burned too many times. He is solid for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, SteelCity08 said: Was trying to quote the post you replied to but messed up and was too lazy to fix it lol. I used to follow him a lot back in the day but got burned too many times. He is solid for the most part. Thanks just came across him in the last year or so, hopefully he is right. He's got the 6-12" range coming down to around I-80ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The top 10 percentile maps can be fun. Sometimes it’s not realistic, but that’s why they are experimental I guess.p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Personally I don't see much change in guidance going forward with this storm. Even last night there was a good consensus of advisory level snows being the floor, while there may be a couple 10" lolli's, the ceiling isn't much more than 7 or 8" statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Personally I don't see much change in guidance going forward with this storm. Even last night there was a good consensus of advisory level snows being the floor, while there may be a couple 10" lolli's, the ceiling isn't much more than 7 or 8" statewide. Agreed but maybe just maybe we can squeeze at 6 or 7. Doubtful but I'm off Wednesday any way so whatever falls I'll actually get to enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 00z Nam is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 31 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 00z Nam is running. Nice front end thump for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Well this is not what I expected to see before bed at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, OutnOakmont said: Well this is not what I expected to see before bed at all! This is exactly what our last storm did. Showed us a glimmer or hope and then scaled back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, OutnOakmont said: Well this is not what I expected to see before bed at all! WOW. AGC is a battlezone. I will not give up on this one no matter what the models say. This is so close. Some in AGC are going to see 6+ of snow and others will see a front thump of 3 and then rain before switching back over to rain again. Really close one here Good news for all the kiddies is that i think the system will come through at a dicey time. I can see alot of schools closing for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Time to gird our loins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 NAM is tight.... Some 1.5” QPF amounts creeping in to SW Pa, but certainly the WTOD is too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3k NAM is 5-7 right through AGH county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Typical for Allegheny County with these types of storms. I usually get screwed and see more slop than snow in this scenario being at the southern edge of the county. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I suspect it could be much different conditions from N to S for this in AGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.