CoraopolisWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Flake size getting better, so mabey we’ll squeeze an inch out this morning. The system has been disjointed going back to yesterday in Midwest, were posters were discussing the slow dendrite development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 NAM looks pretty bleak for the early week event. This may end up being too warm if it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 nice band setting up over the metro right now, i honestly think some areas from i-28 and northward might not switch over. might be an small area of higher snow totals over the N Allegheny and southern butler county area all set and done. Areas that will change over fully is places like greensburg and some southeast areas of the city. places in the mountains might get hammered by this wet snow. The squall line later has me intrigued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 It’s been thumping on the mountain all morning....not sure if we’ll changeover up here or not...feels pretty warm outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 Snow has been coming down at a moderate clip for the last hour. Very wet and not accumulating too much but I have a good solid one inch of snow. It's funny how almost every model has the warm tongue over allegheny county 3 days out. It has to move doesn't it? It only locks in when it is unfavorable for us. I have a gut feeling it moves a little south and we score big. Here's hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 When the warm tongue looms, I know I am in trouble down this way. Bummer about mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, north pgh said: Snow has been coming down at a moderate clip for the last hour. Very wet and not accumulating too much but I have a good solid one inch of snow. It's funny how almost every model has the warm tongue over allegheny county 3 days out. It has to move doesn't it? It only locks in when it is unfavorable for us. I have a gut feeling it moves a little south and we score big. Here's hoping You're crazy. This has screw job written all over it. I hate living here when it comes to snow. We can't even score a heavy snow event, and I don't mean like 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, north pgh said: Snow has been coming down at a moderate clip for the last hour. Very wet and not accumulating too much but I have a good solid one inch of snow. It's funny how almost every model has the warm tongue over allegheny county 3 days out. It has to move doesn't it? It only locks in when it is unfavorable for us. I have a gut feeling it moves a little south and we score big. Here's hoping That HP over SE Canada that’s being modeled on the GFS and CMC could be an issue. We’ll see. With these weak lows, sometimes you have to smell the rain to get the heaviest snow. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, north pgh said: Snow has been coming down at a moderate clip for the last hour. Very wet and not accumulating too much but I have a good solid one inch of snow. It's funny how almost every model has the warm tongue over allegheny county 3 days out. It has to move doesn't it? It only locks in when it is unfavorable for us. I have a gut feeling it moves a little south and we score big. Here's hoping Hope your right but not counting on it. I think we have a better shot at a bigger front end thump from the next one, but as usual south of I-80 flips to slop. We haven't had a slop storm for awhile it seems, but today reminds me how much I dislike them. Beautiful winter scene turns to sloshy grimy mud muck. I mean if you can get a big thump like 5 or 6 inches before the change over that's a different story, but a quarter inch of snow then rain is lousy. At least when you get rain changing to snow and a flash freeze you end with a nice scene so I'd take that over the snow to rain any day. It's how we roll around here though so take what you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Posted by MAG in the central PA forum. I hope he doesn't mind that I repost his thoughts. 12z Euro joins the club of colder guidance with Wednesday's storm. It's a pretty notable shift. 540 line at hr 78 runs I-80 instead of the NY border (previous run hr 90). 546 line is below the Mason Dixon line, which is likely going to be closer to the rain/snow line in this setup. Central counties get whacked and doesn't appear they ever turn over to anything but more snow. 6"+ (10-1) in PIT, JST, AOO, UNV, IPT, AVP, etc. H-burg 3-6" and looks like everyone in the subforum's getting at least 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Posted by MAG in the central PA forum. I hope he doesn't mind that I repost his thoughts. 12z Euro joins the club of colder guidance with Wednesday's storm. It's a pretty notable shift. 540 line at hr 78 runs I-80 instead of the NY border (previous run hr 90). 546 line is below the Mason Dixon line, which is likely going to be closer to the rain/snow line in this setup. Central counties get whacked and doesn't appear they ever turn over to anything but more snow. 6"+ (10-1) in PIT, JST, AOO, UNV, IPT, AVP, etc. H-burg 3-6" and looks like everyone in the subforum's getting at least 2". Maybe I'm not so crazy. We know it will not hold serve. The trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 37 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Posted by MAG in the central PA forum. I hope he doesn't mind that I repost his thoughts. 12z Euro joins the club of colder guidance with Wednesday's storm. It's a pretty notable shift. 540 line at hr 78 runs I-80 instead of the NY border (previous run hr 90). 546 line is below the Mason Dixon line, which is likely going to be closer to the rain/snow line in this setup. Central counties get whacked and doesn't appear they ever turn over to anything but more snow. 6"+ (10-1) in PIT, JST, AOO, UNV, IPT, AVP, etc. H-burg 3-6" and looks like everyone in the subforum's getting at least 2". I'd take that in a heart beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Hope your right but not counting on it. I think we have a better shot at a bigger front end thump from the next one, but as usual south of I-80 flips to slop. We haven't had a slop storm for awhile it seems, but today reminds me how much I dislike them. Beautiful winter scene turns to sloshy grimy mud muck. I mean if you can get a big thump like 5 or 6 inches before the change over that's a different story, but a quarter inch of snow then rain is lousy. At least when you get rain changing to snow and a flash freeze you end with a nice scene so I'd take that over the snow to rain any day. It's how we roll around here though so take what you can get. Seems like today we got caught between the two systems. Hopefully at worst, the midweek storm provides a better front end thump than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Nam doesn't look great. I never really liked the NAM anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Nam doesn't look great. I never really liked the NAM anyway. Not great, but the colder air is further south. Improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Had a moment to look at the 12z Euro and compare to previous runs. Much improved overall. Definitely a southern move. Looking into it, it appears that the Midwestern H pushes down a little and the H over the north atlantic weakens from the previous 00z and 12z runs. Still a very close call. The rain/snow line will be close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 There should be another push of some snow in a few hours....I see it back in western OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: Had a moment to look at the 12z Euro and compare to previous runs. Much improved overall. Definitely a southern move. Looking into it, it appears that the Midwestern H pushes down a little and the H over the north atlantic weakens from the previous 00z and 12z runs. Still a very close call. The rain/snow line will be close... Yeah, unless its a large sprawling banana HP (e.g. Feb 2003, Feb 2010), moisture running up against those North Atlantic HP's tend to work against us, while folks east of the Apps get pasted. Of course there is no scientific proof of this, but I've always felt we would average closer to 50" of snow per year, if the Apps weren't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The NAM is absolutely terrible. Everything about it is bad. The 500mb looks different too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: The NAM is absolutely terrible. Everything about it is bad. The 500mb looks different too. COD website updates slowly, Im only thru hour 63 on the 500mb. So far it looks like the trough is digging a little deeper making our flow less zonal. That causes the tongue to move up further to the North and West. Could just be a wobble. The energy is still off the pac coast. Lets see what the other models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 one nasty looking snow squall heading into Western PA, i think maybe 50 mph gust possible with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 41 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: COD website updates slowly, Im only thru hour 63 on the 500mb. So far it looks like the trough is digging a little deeper making our flow less zonal. That causes the tongue to move up further to the North and West. Could just be a wobble. The energy is still off the pac coast. Lets see what the other models do. Really strange too because it shows rain but then snowfall map says 5-6 inches. Going to be a close call anyway. GFS and Canadian need to come south ever so slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1016 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029- 031-073-WVZ001>004-012-050515- Belmont-Guernsey-Noble-Harrison-Columbiana-Monroe-Jefferson- Tuscarawas-Coshocton-Muskingum-Carroll-Clarion-Greene-Westmoreland- Washington-Jefferson-Butler-Venango-Beaver-Armstrong-Mercer- Allegheny-Indiana-Forest-Lawrence-Marshall-Wetzel-Brooke-Ohio- Hancock- 1016 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018 ...A WINTRY MIX WILL AFFECT MONROE...CARROLL...TUSCARAWAS...NOBLE... COLUMBIANA...MUSKINGUM...BELMONT...GUERNSEY...EASTERN COSHOCTON... HARRISON...JEFFERSON...BEAVER...VENANGO...JEFFERSON...WESTERN GREENE...CLARION...FOREST...MERCER...NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND...BUTLER...ALLEGHENY...ARMSTRONG... WASHINGTON...LAWRENCE...OHIO...WESTERN WETZEL...MARSHALL...BROOKE AND HANCOCK COUNTIES... At 1014 PM EST, an area of mixed precipitation was located along a line extending from near Enterprise to 10 miles south of New Concord. Movement was east at 30 mph. An initial mix of freezing drizzle and snow will quickly transition to a brief period of moderate snow. Temperatures will also rapidly fall during this transition, resulting in a very fast freeze up of standing water in the area. Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Penn Hills... Mount Lebanon... Bethel Park... Ross Township... Wheeling... McCandless Township... Monroeville... Cranberry... Zanesville... Moon Township... New Castle... This includes the following highways... Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 146 and 225. Interstate 70 in West Virginia between mile markers 0 and 14. Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 34. Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 1 and 61. Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 14 and 95. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 19 and 109. Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 1 and 95. Parkway North between mile markers 1 and 13. A rapid drop in temperature will lead to the formation of black ice. Use caution, especially on bridges and overpasses and around curves. LAT...LON 4144 7896 4145 7906 4134 7909 4138 7897 4123 7871 3948 8072 3960 8085 3959 8159 3975 8164 3982 8217 4010 8219 4045 8167 4065 8153 4073 8109 4090 8108 4090 8052 4149 8049 4149 8000 4162 7983 4162 7895 TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 270DEG 25KT 4166 7953 3985 8168 $$ Fries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 GFS with a nice little shift at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, north pgh said: GFS or the squall coming through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: GFS or the squall coming through? GFS looks good to my eyes, looks similar to Euro. Euro has been off its game this year but it's still king 48-72 hours out most of the time when there is an overall agreement with other guidance concerning QPF and Temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: GFS looks good to my eyes, looks similar to Euro. Euro has been off its game this year but it's still king 48-72 hours out most of the time when there is an overall agreement with other guidance concerning QPF and Temps. Just glanced at the GFS. Does look better. About as good as it can get from this storm. 6+ in play from that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Thundersnow in creighton, big clap of thunder, and lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 46 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: GFS or the squall coming through? Pats losing is my guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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