KPITSnow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Here is pivotal weathers nam. 3 in. Seems to me like something is wrong with TT on that run. Not really sure though Those numbers on the second maps look MUCH more in line with what the actual run was showing. It didn’t look like more that .3-.4 qpf after changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Longdong said: Yep with him around a fellow didn’t have to type,is there analogs to this setup ? Here is the mean to the analogs. 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2-4 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Here is a different look to Levi's maps on TT. He came out with a statement a few weeks ago that the 10:1 snow maps had some sort of error in them. I used the positive snow depth for this one. Seems more inline with the other sites. I think the NWS estimate of 3-6 is still a good one. Maybe some people north get 7 or 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 the one with the 8" includes sleet. dont think the others do. Mixing is going to bring our numbers down. Dont see any way around that. Think more significant issue is going to be serious ice issues. My yard never floods, has 1" of standing water in it. There are sheets of water flowing across roads everywhere. Going to be a mess later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Praying that this is more than 3” over ice. flooding awful this morning had to turn around 5 times on the way to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Was hoping to get WSW criteria snow but I guess we keep waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 General question: We have watched our totals drop and some of it is due to sleet. Any merit to the ideas that the storm is moving faster or just simply less amped or a combo of both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: General question: We have watched our totals drop and some of it is due to sleet. Any merit to the ideas that the storm is moving faster or just simply less amped or a combo of both? It's looking like the changeover is taking longer on the models cutting down totals. So more sleet for us. Plus the NAM is always all jacked up on totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 If it is any consolation: The WPC's model diagnostic discussions have been talking about how the NAM might be moving a little quicker than what the storm will actually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Also just noticed this. We did it. I feel really proud of us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longdong Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Maybe its good this happen after dark 5pm that way no sun to keep the layers a dagree or 2 warmer for a potentialy faster change over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Also just noticed this. We did it. I feel really proud of us lol Imagine if this was an actually good storm. We might be able to break the boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: If it is any consolation: The WPC's model diagnostic discussions have been talking about how the NAM might be moving a little quicker than what the storm will actually do. That would make a difference since precip cuts off rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: That would make a difference since precip cuts off rather quickly. They also mention this. Quote Sounds like they like the Euro. Big run for the 12z coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, MikeB_01 said: They also mention this. Sounds like they like the Euro. Big run for the 12z coming up Sorry, the quote from the WPC didn't come in. Here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Sorry, the quote from the WPC didn't come in. Here it is. Try one more time: THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO REPRESENT THE SLOWER END OF MODEL SPREAD WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW. GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SPREAD IN ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (WITH QUITE A FEW AT THAT INTENSITY AND/OR SLOWER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN)...WOULD PREFER TO MAINTAIN THE ECMWF IN THE PREFERENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 47 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Seeing some very weird things from the models from different sources. COD's page shows the NAM at about 3 inches. Yet TT shows a good swath of 8... Im confused. Not sure, but those TT maps have the *Includes Sleet* on the map. I'm guessing that means it either adds sleet amount to your totals, or more likely it counts sleet precip as snow. That would make sense given we see .1 .2 of sleet, then on top of that just assume its a 10:1 ratio, which it won't and I can see how it would be spitting out 6-8 inch totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 12zGFS pretty inline with NAM. 3-5 for AGC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 12zGFS pretty inline with NAM. 3-5 for AGC. Yep. Not sure how much is sleet. Really tough to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 SREFs show 5 for KPIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 12zGFS pretty inline with NAM. 3-5 for AGC. Isn't that inline pretty much with what it's been showing. I looped through several previous runs and while there were a couple earlier in the week or last week that showed a huge hit, most were in the 2-4 variety, and some were worse. This setup is primed for big bust potential though in either direction. Someone could get lucky and see 6-8 or wake up to a coating. on top of a quarter inch of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Isn't that inline pretty much with what it's been showing. I looped through several previous runs and while there were a couple earlier in the week or last week that showed a huge hit, most were in the 2-4 variety, and some were worse. This setup is primed for big bust potential though in either direction. Someone could get lucky and see 6-8 or wake up to a coating. on top of a quarter inch of sleet. I've been conditioned to the later. In thinking the changeover takes forever and we get 3 inches on top of a bunch of sleet and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I thought the GFS had a slightly heavier swath of snow. Also, had the feeling that the swath was moving south east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 12z RGEM in the same boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Isn't that inline pretty much with what it's been showing. I looped through several previous runs and while there were a couple earlier in the week or last week that showed a huge hit, most were in the 2-4 variety, and some were worse. This setup is primed for big bust potential though in either direction. Someone could get lucky and see 6-8 or wake up to a coating. on top of a quarter inch of sleet. You are correct. What is wrong with 3-5? People you should know better than to get yourself hyped up for the highest totals. Here is what I see. NAM and GFS show 3 inches south and east to 5 inches to the north and west. The Canadian is showing 4 inches to the west and 5-7 inches to the south and east. The Canadian looks like it shows a quicker change to snow while the heavy stuff is here and not as much sleet. That saying it is NOWCAST TIME. The models aren't sure about totals because they are not sure about precip types. We will not know what we get till the precip gets here and changes over. I am looking for an inch or 2 of sleet followed by 3-4 inches of snow OR 4-8 inches of snow. "I WILL TAKE THIS STORM ANYTIME". Time to stay up late and enjoy it. It will all be over by morning anyway and we will be in a shoveling and chipping ice in a deep freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, north pgh said: You are correct. What is wrong with 3-5? People you should know better than to get yourself hyped up for the highest totals. Here is what I see. NAM and GFS show 3 inches south and east to 5 inches to the north and west. The Canadian is showing 4 inches to the west and 5-7 inches to the south and east. The Canadian looks like it shows a quicker change to snow while the heavy stuff is here and not as much sleet. That saying it is NOWCAST TIME. The models aren't sure about totals because they are not sure about precip types. We will not know what we get till the precip gets here and changes over. I am looking for an inch or 2 of sleet followed by 3-4 inches of snow OR 4-8 inches of snow. "I WILL TAKE THIS STORM ANYTIME". Time to stay up late and enjoy it. It will all be over by morning anyway and we will be in a shoveling and chipping ice in a deep freeze. Not to complain, but I am sick of our storms capping at 3-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: You are correct. What is wrong with 3-5? People you should know better than to get yourself hyped up for the highest totals. Here is what I see. NAM and GFS show 3 inches south and east to 5 inches to the north and west. The Canadian is showing 4 inches to the west and 5-7 inches to the south and east. The Canadian looks like it shows a quicker change to snow while the heavy stuff is here and not as much sleet. That saying it is NOWCAST TIME. The models aren't sure about totals because they are not sure about precip types. We will not know what we get till the precip gets here and changes over. I am looking for an inch or 2 of sleet followed by 3-4 inches of snow OR 4-8 inches of snow. "I WILL TAKE THIS STORM ANYTIME". Time to stay up late and enjoy it. It will all be over by morning anyway and we will be in a shoveling and chipping ice in a deep freeze. Wonderfully said. Time to Nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longdong Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Wonderfully said. Time to Nowcast. maybee start by obs the temp profiles in ohio to see if front is moving faster then modeled?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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