north pgh Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 45 minutes ago, Mailman said: The latest from PBZ... .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As the aforementioned trough slides eastward and ejects a vort center across the Upr OH on Friday night and Saturday, rain will tranistion to a wintry mix, and eventually snow. Winter storm warnings and advisories have been issued for the combinations of ice, and then snow accumulation. Questions remain on placement and magnitude of ice and snow amounts given the dispute between freezing rain supporting warm advection aloft, and the degradation of the dendrite-formation layer resulting from the warmth. At any rate, confidence is sufficient for the current headline package with surface cold air encroachment timed for late Friday afternoon over the northern tier of PBZ zones, with all precip changing to snow in the predawn of Saturday. By Saturday mrng, system departure will diminish the snow chances, with cold advection in its wake dropping temperature rapidly below the averages. A weak Discussion. Where is Fries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Gfs has consistently showed the least snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Well Let’s hope the euro can beat the gfs this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, dj3 said: Gfs has consistently showed the least snow for us. Yes maybe..... but the 12Z has our area 2-5 and the 18Z has 3-7. Every movement east each model ups our totals a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, north pgh said: Yes maybe..... but the 12Z has our area 2-5 and the 18Z has 3-7. Every movement east each model ups our totals a little bit. 10:1 snow map looks like 1-3 inches until you get way north and west unless I’m seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Jeff V 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 GFS looks awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 Time to relax. (Until tonight) haha Right now I think we are looking at a minimum of 2-4 and maximum of 6-10 and we are still 30 hours away. 2-4 is being conservative. I remember Joe Denardo would not put his totals out this early because too much could change. If the models come closer into agreement than Jeff V and others will up their totals. As many have learned it is easier to up the totals than come down. Compare and average the models. We get too caught up in the negative. I would gladly take a 3-6 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 As mentioned earlier, this is probably going to be a nowcast situation. Even though we're only 24 hrs out, there still isn't as much clarity as would be expected. The NS vort is still kinda tricky, and the SS vort will be a work in progress right up through 00Z. For sure one of the tougher winter forecasts in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 49 minutes ago, dj3 said: Gfs has consistently showed the least snow for us. 44 minutes ago, dj3 said: Well Let’s hope the euro can beat the gfs this time. State College must be giving a lot of weight to the Euro. They have me (Schuylkill County) in a Winter Storm Watch for up to 4" of snow/sleet and 0.2" inches of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longdong Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 29 minutes ago, north pgh said: Time to relax. (Until tonight) haha Right now I think we are looking at a minimum of 2-4 and maximum of 6-10 and we are still 30 hours away. 2-4 is being conservative. I remember Joe Denardo would not put his totals out this early because too much could change. If the models come closer into agreement than Jeff V and others will up their totals. As many have learned it is easier to up the totals than come down. Compare and average the models. We get too caught up in the negative. I would gladly take a 3-6 storm. I agree completely 1-10 inches in good call at this point if anything i would prefer rain then snow so no power outages with ice buildup.Good call boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Cutting the NAM values in half (or at least chopping off a third) is a fairly consistent bet. The Euro has been pretty hit and miss this year, not excelling like in the past. But don't worry; if this system misses, it bullseye the region in a week! That has never worked out poorly... This largely does look like an I-70 and north event, plus the ridges of course, but I don't expect a lot in the far southern zones. Hope you guys and gals in AGH can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Granted this is a different beast but was it like this back in 2010 when we are unsure of the snow amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, Rd9108 said: Granted this is a different beast but was it like this back in 2010 when we are unsure of the snow amounts? Not really. If I remember outside of a wobble or two we were pretty locked in on a foot plus for almost a week. NWS did a great job initially forecasting I think 8-14 or 16 a day or two our, then slowly caught up as we were closer to two feet. Now the locals...that was embarrassing. Despite kpit having a warning with 8-16 totals on the headlines, they stick with a 3-5 type event. Basically, the general public was shocked. Weenies knew pretty well in advance a huge hit was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Nice snowfall axis. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Time to relax. (Until tonight) haha Right now I think we are looking at a minimum of 2-4 and maximum of 6-10 and we are still 30 hours away. 2-4 is being conservative. I remember Joe Denardo would not put his totals out this early because too much could change. If the models come closer into agreement than Jeff V and others will up their totals. As many have learned it is easier to up the totals than come down. Compare and average the models. We get too caught up in the negative. I would gladly take a 3-6 storm. I think pretty much almost anything is in play at this point. Well, not a foot or anything like that, but maybe anything under 8 inches. I've seen forecasts of 6-10 end up busting to nothing or just an inch, so anything is possible. I'd say that 2-4" of snow is a decent call right now with some sleet and freezing rain as well.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 One nice thing is we shouldn't have to wait long after this for our next snowfall. The Tuesday clipper doesn't look too bad attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'm hoping the 0z models can cheer me up. I'm cleaning up literal ****. I have sewer back up in my garage, basement shower and driveway. This is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: I'm hoping the 0z models can cheer me up. I'm cleaning up literal ****. I have sewer back up in my garage, basement shower and driveway. This is awful. Sorry to hear that. I bet this graphic will make you laugh at least. <1 - 10 with this storm. In other words... no one has any idea what is going to happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'm hoping the 0z models can cheer me up. I'm cleaning up literal ****. I have sewer back up in my garage, basement shower and driveway. This is awful. Damn man lol. Hopefully 0z isn't as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Sorry to hear that. I bet this graphic will make you laugh at least. <1 - 10 with this storm. In other words... no one has any idea what is going to happen lol I think the only experiment with these is to see how much of their a** they can cover in case a forecast busts. Jk, it's cool to see the nws do something new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 23 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'm hoping the 0z models can cheer me up. I'm cleaning up literal ****. I have sewer back up in my garage, basement shower and driveway. This is awful. Ah that sucks man, had that happen to me twice, well not backed up in the shower, but came up a drain in the basement and ruined a bunch of stuff in storage. Both cases I think were a case of the little one flushing to much paper down the toilet and it clogged in the trap outside the house. Get a local plumbing company out there tomorrow and snake it out with one of those eel machines, probably run you $150-$200. I've heard bad things about Gillece, like they come out and tell people their sewer lines need dug up, or bust their pipes then charge you to fix them. Never had an experience with them though so maybe others have heard better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 27 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Sorry to hear that. I bet this graphic will make you laugh at least. <1 - 10 with this storm. In other words... no one has any idea what is going to happen lol I would hate to be met for our area right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Ah that sucks man, had that happen to me twice, well not backed up in the shower, but came up a drain in the basement and ruined a bunch of stuff in storage. Both cases I think were a case of the little one flushing to much paper down the toilet and it clogged in the trap outside the house. Get a local plumbing company out there tomorrow and snake it out with one of those eel machines, probably run you $150-$200. I've heard bad things about Gillece, like they come out and tell people their sewer lines need dug up, or bust their pipes then charge you to fix them. Never had an experience with them though so maybe others have heard better. Luckily my cousin and uncle are plumbers and gonna try to snake it tomorrow. May have to stop using so much toliet paper. All I know is I'm glad I had a mask cleaning that up. That was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Luckily my cousin and uncle are plumbers and gonna try to snake it tomorrow. May have to stop using so much toliet paper. All I know is I'm glad I had a mask cleaning that up. That was awful. It happened to me and tree roots were clogging the outside pipe. Had to have my yard dug up and pipe replaced. Luckily my friend was a plumber and I got a deal but still cost me almost 4 grand. Make sure you get Scott 1000 toilet paper. Thinnest toilet paper that won't clog your toilets. I hope they can snake without digging. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This thread went from talking about a snow storm to talking about a s**t storm. Lol Sorry, I couldn't pass that one up.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: This thread went from talking about a snow storm to talking about a s**t storm. Lol Sorry, I couldn't pass that one up. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Sorry but I have to vent my frustration. I keep checking my garage to make sure water is backing up. The rain sounds like it's getting heavier so if it's gonna do it it'll be when the heavier bands roll through. Now that I'm done with that. Let's focus on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Sorry but I have to vent my frustration. I keep checking my garage to make sure water is backing up. The rain sounds like it's getting heavier so if it's gonna do it it'll be when the heavier bands roll through. Now that I'm done with that. Let's focus on the 0z NAM.Vent your frustration all you want. I was just making a joke out of it to lighten the mood. Anyway, let's see what the models do to us tonight.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 18 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: This thread went from talking about a snow storm to talking about a s**t storm. Lol Sorry, I couldn't pass that one up. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Isn't that how most of our storm threats go anyways! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Isn't that how most of our storm threats go anyways! Good point. It's pretty symbolic for what we've been put through over the years.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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