cwc Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 WTAE: KDKA (which I am assuming is Accuweather): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 WPXI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 KDKA will be ratcheted down when J.V. shows up later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Ok, so I’m not sold on the 6-10 totals....but what on earth are the locals looking at saying 1-3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: KDKA will be ratcheted down when J.V. shows up later Nothing will ever beat him sticking with 3-5 inches for feb 5-6 2010 when there was already 5 inches on the ground at 7 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Ok, so I’m not sold on the 6-10 totals....but what on earth are the locals looking at saying 1-3? Probably yesterdays models. They seem to always be about 24 hours behind.......... Unless we are getting an inch with a frontal system and then they lead with the news and get everyone worked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Btw, it is ridiculous that very other WFO can put out accumulations already but KPIT can’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Btw, it is ridiculous that very other WFO can put out accumulations already but KPIT can’t. There are several tools on the snowfall page on their site if you want to know what they are thinking. They are considered “experimental” but work through some probabilities. Basically their “most likely” is ~4”, and their top end (10% chance) is 8”. I wouldn’t be putting out totals out this morning either. Too much in the “battleground”. I would however expect them to with tonight’s packages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 OHZ039>041-049-050-PAZ016-020>022-029-WVZ001>003-120415- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.180112T1800Z-180113T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.180112T2100Z-180113T1500Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson-Beaver-Allegheny- Armstrong-Washington-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio- Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton, Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Cadiz, Steubenville, Punxsutawney, Brookville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Washington, Canonsburg, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, and Wheeling 306 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected. * WHERE...Portions of southwest, west central and western Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice are expected. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 OHZ068-069-PAZ023-031-073>076-WVZ004-012-021-509-120415- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0003.180113T0000Z-180113T1500Z/ Noble-Monroe-Indiana-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges- Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Caldwell, Woodsfield, Indiana, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, and Morgantown 306 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected. * WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 49 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Ok, so I’m not sold on the 6-10 totals....but what on earth are the locals looking at saying 1-3? 1-3 might be a good call if the 18z nam is right. Wow scratch that, no idea what I was looking at lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, SteelCity08 said: 1-3 might be a good call if the 18z nam is right. I am relying on the fact that EURO > NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: I am relying on the fact that EURO > NAM I looked at the wrong map. 18z is a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 18z nam actually has more snow in eastern areas. Weird max snow band but a good hit region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, dj3 said: 18z nam actually has more snow in eastern areas. Weird max snow band but a good hit region wide. 18z almost goes TOO Far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: 18z almost goes TOO Far East. The plot thickens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, SteelCity08 said: The plot thickens State college gets a foot. I just don’t want to be fringed and watch heavy snow 50 miles from me on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 NAM about puts us in the jackpot but too much uncertainty of how much of our accumulations is sleet. We still may not know until tomorrow night. I do remember our Feb 2010 storm the rain was supposed to turn to snow in the evening and it ended up changing in the mid to late afternoon thus leading to the heavier totals. Yes if we get a lot of sleet before the change we could have 3-6 inches on top of sleet but if the changeover happens earlier with the heavier bands here we may get 6-10. Either way tomorrow night should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3K NAM also edges a little closer to us. 12K NAM is all over the place the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Earlier today Cedar Rapids was reporting 14 degrees and sleet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Euro ensembles Matches up pretty well with op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, north pgh said: NAM about puts us in the jackpot but too much uncertainty of how much of our accumulations is sleet. We still may not know until tomorrow night. I do remember our Feb 2010 storm the rain was supposed to turn to snow in the evening and it ended up changing in the mid to late afternoon thus leading to the heavier totals. Yes if we get a lot of sleet before the change we could have 3-6 inches on top of sleet but if the changeover happens earlier with the heavier bands here we may get 6-10. Either way tomorrow night should be fun! What a day that was. Woke up to 43 degrees, went into a mini panic. Precip began as sleet, freaked out again. Changed over after 15 minutes and the rest is history. Even back then I always expected disappointment lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: 18z almost goes TOO Far East. I’d be surprised if it happens as depicted. Even areas north and west of the city which have been getting most on all of the models get shafted. Just seems like a weird distribution but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 With these maps that are posted.. are they all depicting sleet/zr as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Mailman said: With these maps that are posted.. are they all depicting sleet/zr as snow? Thats a great questions and I am sure that some of it is. I am betting the NWS took the 3-6 route because of the unknown amounts of sleet that will be mixing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Have to re 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: With these maps that are posted.. are they all depicting sleet/zr as snow? I believe so but not sure. Also have to think that ratios may be iffy at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Thats a great questions and I am sure that some of it is. I am betting the NWS took the 3-6 route because of the unknown amounts of sleet that will be mixing in Like, for instance, I look at the NAM... it already has 5" here before it changes over to snow. Then it has 6" more after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The latest from PBZ... .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As the aforementioned trough slides eastward and ejects a vort center across the Upr OH on Friday night and Saturday, rain will tranistion to a wintry mix, and eventually snow. Winter storm warnings and advisories have been issued for the combinations of ice, and then snow accumulation. Questions remain on placement and magnitude of ice and snow amounts given the dispute between freezing rain supporting warm advection aloft, and the degradation of the dendrite-formation layer resulting from the warmth. At any rate, confidence is sufficient for the current headline package with surface cold air encroachment timed for late Friday afternoon over the northern tier of PBZ zones, with all precip changing to snow in the predawn of Saturday. By Saturday mrng, system departure will diminish the snow chances, with cold advection in its wake dropping temperature rapidly below the averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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