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Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018


north pgh

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6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Ok, so I’m not sold on the 6-10 totals....but what on earth are the locals looking at saying 1-3?

 

Probably yesterdays models. They seem to always be about 24 hours behind..........

Unless we are getting an inch with a frontal system and then they lead with the news and get everyone worked up.

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Btw, it is ridiculous that very other WFO can put out accumulations already but KPIT can’t. 

There are several tools on the snowfall page on their site if you want to know what they are thinking. They are considered “experimental” but work through some probabilities. Basically their “most likely” is ~4”, and their top end (10% chance) is 8”.

I wouldn’t be putting out totals out this morning either. Too much in the “battleground”. I would however expect them to with tonight’s packages 

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OHZ039>041-049-050-PAZ016-020>022-029-WVZ001>003-120415-
/O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.180112T1800Z-180113T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.180112T2100Z-180113T1500Z/
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Washington-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton,
Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Cadiz, Steubenville,
Punxsutawney, Brookville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge,
Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Washington,
Canonsburg, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, and Wheeling
306 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Plan on difficult
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches
  and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest, west central and western
  Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and northern
  panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice are expected. This will make travel very hazardous or
impossible. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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OHZ068-069-PAZ023-031-073>076-WVZ004-012-021-509-120415-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0003.180113T0000Z-180113T1500Z/
Noble-Monroe-Indiana-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-
Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Including the cities of Caldwell, Woodsfield, Indiana,
Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Ligonier,
Donegal, Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle, Moundsville,
New Martinsville, Fairmont, and Morgantown
306 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, and ice
  accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Pennsylvania,
  east central Ohio and northern and northern panhandle of West
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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NAM about puts us in the jackpot but too much uncertainty of how much of our accumulations is sleet.

We still may not know until tomorrow night. I do remember our Feb 2010 storm the rain was supposed to turn to snow in the evening and it ended up changing in the mid to late afternoon thus leading to the heavier totals. Yes if we get a lot of sleet before the change we could have 3-6 inches on top of sleet but if the changeover happens earlier with the heavier bands here we may get 6-10.  Either way tomorrow night should be fun! 

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4 minutes ago, north pgh said:

NAM about puts us in the jackpot but too much uncertainty of how much of our accumulations is sleet.

We still may not know until tomorrow night. I do remember our Feb 2010 storm the rain was supposed to turn to snow in the evening and it ended up changing in the mid to late afternoon thus leading to the heavier totals. Yes if we get a lot of sleet before the change we could have 3-6 inches on top of sleet but if the changeover happens earlier with the heavier bands here we may get 6-10.  Either way tomorrow night should be fun! 

What a day that was. Woke up to 43 degrees, went into a mini panic. Precip began as sleet, freaked out again. Changed over after 15 minutes and the rest is history. Even back then I always expected disappointment lol. 

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10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

18z almost goes TOO Far East. 

 

I’d be surprised if it happens as depicted. Even areas north and west of the city which have been getting most on all of the models get shafted. Just seems like a weird distribution but who knows 

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1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

Thats a great questions and I am sure that some of it is. I am betting the NWS took the 3-6 route because of the unknown amounts of sleet that will be mixing in

Like, for instance, I look at the NAM...  it already has 5" here before it changes over to snow.  Then it has 6" more after that. 

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The latest from PBZ...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As the aforementioned trough slides eastward and ejects a vort
center across the Upr OH on Friday night and Saturday, rain will
tranistion to a wintry mix, and eventually snow. Winter storm
warnings and advisories have been issued for the combinations of
ice, and then snow accumulation. Questions remain on placement
and magnitude of ice and snow amounts given the dispute between
freezing rain supporting warm advection aloft, and the
degradation of the dendrite-formation layer resulting from the
warmth. At any rate, confidence is sufficient for the current
headline package with surface cold air encroachment timed for
late Friday afternoon over the northern tier of PBZ zones, with
all precip changing to snow in the predawn of Saturday.

By Saturday mrng, system departure will diminish the snow chances,
with cold advection in its wake dropping temperature rapidly 
below the averages.
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