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Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018

north pgh

By north pgh,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

GFS in fantasy land keeps wanting to break down the PNA and warm up. The gefs don't agree. Gonna be interesting to see if any of these waves can give some accumulating snow. 

Right now, looks like just a relaxation to me, even the 12z OP you can see the PNA ridge building back in at the end of the run. Still may lead the door open for a bigger storm with the caveat it could be wet rather than white. To far out to really worry about at this point.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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10 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

First measurable snow in my backyard, 1/10" on deck, mulch and grass. Lol.  Driveway and street are just wet.  Several rounds of flurries and the temp dropped below freezing in the past hour.  At least it looks white, yay.

Radar certainly looks more robust than what I would have thought given the forecast. You can see a couple of nice bands embedded in the scattered light showers and flurries.

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MikeB_01

MikeB_01

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What would be better for us with this clipper system? A low off the coast that is further away. Allows for the phasing to occur later and therefore the low holds on to some of its energy before being transfered out to see? If that is the case, I am hopeful for the Japanese model. Its the furthest one OTS.

Screen Shot 2017-12-08 at 10.15.35 AM.png

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

What would be better for us with this clipper system? A low off the coast that is further away. Allows for the phasing to occur later and therefore the low holds on to some of its energy before being transfered out to see? If that is the case, I am hopeful for the Japanese model. Its the furthest one OTS.

Screen Shot 2017-12-08 at 10.15.35 AM.png

That would probably help somewhat, but you can still see energy transferring to the low off the coast. When the clipper looked better, that southern low was a good bit faster, so it moved out before the 2 really could interact. We would want our clipper to slow down to avoid interaction, but this close in the game that is off the table. Maybe we can squeeze out a coating to half inch but nothing to exciting. Next week looks to have no shortage of NS shortwaves dropping down through the trough, so hopefully we can get one to ride along the mason-dixon line, then setup a favorable wind trajectory off the lakes as it passes.

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jwilson

jwilson

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Posted

Managed a dusting last night.  Not terrible for early December, especially given my overall concerns with this winter, but disappointing considering the snow in Mexico and my friends in Baton Rouge picking up a solid two inches.  I'm sure we'll have to somewhat rely on NS systems with a mild-to-moderate La Nina in place.  Maybe we get lucky with a phase at some point.

Next week looks good for winding up the Lake Effect machine.  Not superbly useful for those of us down here, but that's fine.  At least we have one ingredient ready.

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blackngoldrules

blackngoldrules

Posted
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No and it's making me hate this hobby more and more. Places like Kentucky, Alabama, ect keep getting hit and we are stuck with hoping a clipper overperforms. 

I think southeast Virgina has done better with storms in recent years than we have. And of course, the usual places to our east will get hit again. All we get are chances of snow showers.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

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north pgh

north pgh

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I love watching Army-Navy every year. It's great watching. In the snow. I have to say I am a little jealous of our friends in philly getting snow once again while we get none. 

Any one else remember rob22 from philly that used to post on here when it was the old wright weather board? He complained that philly never got snow and he was going to cal of pa I think and was always in the screw zone? 

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MikeB_01

MikeB_01

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1 hour ago, north pgh said:

I love watching Army-Navy every year. It's great watching. In the snow. I have to say I am a little jealous of our friends in philly getting snow once again while we get none. 

Any one else remember rob22 from philly that used to post on here when it was the old wright weather board? He complained that philly never got snow and he was going to cal of pa I think and was always in the screw zone? 

At least the largest snow reported so far out of Mt. Holly is only 7 in. Im glad they arent getting what is usually their typical 24 in storm just yet.

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jwilson

jwilson

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3 hours ago, north pgh said:

I love watching Army-Navy every year. It's great watching. In the snow. I have to say I am a little jealous of our friends in philly getting snow once again while we get none. 

Any one else remember rob22 from philly that used to post on here when it was the old wright weather board? He complained that philly never got snow and he was going to cal of pa I think and was always in the screw zone? 

What a great game that was, and the snow just added to the atmosphere.  I used to go to those games as a kid with my dad and granddad, who served in the Army during WWII.  Was always an intense atmosphere.  Then one year, as the Vet started to deteriorate, a railing collapsed and some Army kids got hurt.  That pretty much spurred its retirement.

Anyway, hoping we can enjoy some snow like that before too long.

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Mailman

Mailman

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5 hours ago, north pgh said:

 

Any one else remember rob22 from philly that used to post on here when it was the old wright weather board? He complained that philly never got snow and he was going to cal of pa I think and was always in the screw zone? 

Haha.  He wasn't kidding. Watched it rain several times at the college, only to have the roads up on top of the hill covered in snow.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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15 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Next threat is the clipper and looks to be a 1-3 type deal. 

1-3 looks good, but you can even see even the GFS hinting at some LES bands developing in the NW flow after the clipper / front passes so localized jackpots look likely. Looks like we will have the opportunity to see snow flying pretty much Tuesday-Saturday, most of the time just snow showers and LES but occasionally a piece of energy rotates through.

After that all eyes turn to the relaxation. Right now it looks pretty brief, and maybe a return to normal or slightly above for 3-4 days with the chance of a scrooge storm before we get colder again right around Christmas.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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9 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Surprised no one mentioned that we had a half inch of snow out there. That's news to me. 

Only have a very light dusting here. Some light flakes falling as we speak though. When it gets into the lower teens with calm winds, sometimes I can see ice crystals falling out of the furnace exhaust from my chimney and putting a light dusting down on my deck. The dusting we have now almost resembles that.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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12z GFS hinting at some sort of overrunning event around the Christmas time frame, definitely a period to watch as the cold should be pressing back in but there is some SE ridging too. Gradient setup for sure, if your on the right side it could be fun. I think if we see a more wound up system in this time frame it would likely cut, so this is a scenario that could work for us.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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On 12/8/2017 at 8:47 PM, KPITSnow said:

Parts of Alabama got TEN inches....have we had a ten inch storm in the metro since 2010? 


 
On 12/8/2017 at 10:11 PM, blackngoldrules said:

I think southeast Virgina has done better with storms in recent years than we have. And of course, the usual places to our east will get hit again. All we get are chances of snow showers.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
 

Keep in mind where you live, SWPA climo is nickle and dime events more often than not. Technically in 2010 we had back to back storms of 8 inches and 20 inches in FEB so when you see these numbers its not like oh, its been 5 years we get a 13-15 inch storm. Its an average. One big winter season may feature multiples of any of these that only occur once every 5 years, it just averages out that way. Areas to our east are more go big or go home, they either hit the grand slams or have a lousy winter snow totals but we are likely to hit at least 75% of average almost every season. 

FREQUENCY OF HEAVY SNOWFALLS

Snowfalls of 16 inches or more...............once in 15 years

Snowfalls of 13-15 inches or more............once in 5 years

Snowfalls of 8-12 inches or more.............once every two years

Snowfalls of 5 inches or more................twice a year

 

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Rd9108

Rd9108

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41 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: 


 

Keep in mind where you live, SWPA climo is nickle and dime events more often than not. Technically in 2010 we had back to back storms of 8 inches and 20 inches in FEB so when you see these numbers its not like oh, its been 5 years we get a 13-15 inch storm. Its an average. One big winter season may feature multiples of any of these that only occur once every 5 years, it just averages out that way. Areas to our east are more go big or go home, they either hit the grand slams or have a lousy winter snow totals but we are likely to hit at least 75% of average almost every season. 


FREQUENCY OF HEAVY SNOWFALLS

Snowfalls of 16 inches or more...............once in 15 years

Snowfalls of 13-15 inches or more............once in 5 years

Snowfalls of 8-12 inches or more.............once every two years

Snowfalls of 5 inches or more................twice a year

 

So I see this and my question is this says on average we get a 8-12 storm every 2 years. When was our last 8-12 storm. I remember maybe one in April a few years ago but nothing really sticks out. 

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