dj3 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The nam jumps the low from Tennessee to South Carolina at one point lol. I guess it’s better than being west but doesn’t seem very plausible. Heavy sleet on this run but definitely colder than previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, dj3 said: The nam jumps the low from Tennessee to South Carolina at one point lol. I guess it’s better than being west but doesn’t seem very plausible. Heavy sleet on this run but definitely colder than previous run. Agree but it is a step in the right direction. Any more west and we are doomed. Any move east is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Reading a lot of posts mets actually think the transfer is a possibility and something the gefs has been hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, dj3 said: The nam jumps the low from Tennessee to South Carolina at one point lol. I guess it’s better than being west but doesn’t seem very plausible. Heavy sleet on this run but definitely colder than previous run. Yeah looks like convective feedback as it jumps the low over the convection firing in NC. Probably give it less credence than usual unless globals jump east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Rd9108 said: Reading a lot of posts mets actually think the transfer is a possibility and something the gefs has been hinting at. That would be a good trend. Lows don't typically like to run up the spine of the aps so given the choice they usually take one side or the other. Only thing that throws a wrench in is it jumps back to WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said: That would be a good trend. Lows don't typically like to run up the spine of the aps so given the choice they usually take one side or the other. Only thing that throws a wrench in is it jumps back to WV. It's a weird run but good to see a stop of the super amped west runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Good run by the nam. Keep it moving east! GFS up next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Crazy temp profiles with the sounding on the 00Z Nam. This is hour 84. Would be sleet yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 hours ago, SteelCity08 said: Lol... We're lucky to have someone of your pedigree in our thread The typing errors sure do seem to follow a pattern though I must say. Anyway, giving this storm until 0z tmrw before giving up hope. Sure looks like it has its eyes on Ohio and Michigan though. Laugh all you want. Were all hobbyists but whatever. Just saying you don't need a piece of paper from a college which i call scams. But i am saying i am looking forward too this storm. If we get blizzard i will be happy, but i am enjoying this nice few warm days after well being in Siberia for 2 weeks. An asteroid screwed up the weather pattern its simple as that. Climate Change is real, Global Warming is an scam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Well can all agree on one thing and that is this storm looks over the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 0z GFS looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, Mailman said: 0z GFS looks better. certainly better than the 18z. Looks to have pushed back to the area it was at the 12z run. So far so good tonight. I am happy with the trends. I am still holding out for the 11th. Thats when the models will get a good hold of what is going on with the trailing energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Quote My favorite model the Canadian is East but not as strong. The trend is our friend but we all know what usually happens, don't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The trend is good, but please, for the love of God. Don't do this to me. Soo close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: The trend is good, but please, for the love of God. Don't do this to me. Soo close Lol come on you know the weather doesn't like our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: The trend is good, but please, for the love of God. Don't do this to me. Soo close 3 days out. You may as well lock it in. Then we have our "Storms to the left of me, Storms to the right and here we are.........stuck in the middle..................... FU" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 UKie is east as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: The trend is good, but please, for the love of God. Don't do this to me. Soo close That would be like getting tackled on the 1 yard line. I'd rather it miss us hundreds of miles away than something gut wrenching like that. lol If the Euro pushes further east as well then maybe we have something. I still thing it's a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Euro is east and weak. 6-8 type deal. Doesn't get really cranking until NY. Some of the snow could be sleet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Pretty interesting take from the NWS Pittsburgh discussion this morning: Quote The ridging pattern breakdown gradually occurs late Friday, and it accelerates into Friday night. A weak model consensus favors a faster evolution of cold air into the CWA Friday night per the 00z GFS/GEM/ECMWF. However, slower evolutions still are featured in many GEFS members, the NAM, and the 12z ECMWF. Thus, confidence in the details of the forecast and timing of precipitation changeovers isn`t high. However, confidence in a sprawling winter storm riding up spine of the Appalachians is growing rapidly. The aforementioned weak and new consensus of the 00z GFS/GEM/ECMWF would be somewhat of a worst case scenario for our region. With an overlay of deep deformation riding up the 925-850 mb front, and warm advection over that level, temperatures in excess of +5C are evident just above the boundary layer, while cold advection is dragging boundary layer temperatures below it as low as -5C. This dichotomy is drastic even for icing scenarios, and while it represents a possibility, the envelope in ensemble forecasts is wide enough that it cannot be lingered on too much. Regardless, the eventual ejection of the system from the southern Mississippi Valley toward the lower Great Lakes or Ohio Valley will be key to how the weather will evolve over our area Friday night. Should it eject farther west and the pattern end up less progressive, there is potential we may dry slot and cold air would arrive with little fanfare. Should the pattern more more progressive, the deformation precipitation would be suppressed farther south and crush our area. There is also the entirety of the possibilities in between that include potential for a substantial icing event. For the moment, the forecast continues to be built around a consensus with the heaviest snow possibilities int he far western and northwestern CWA, and swath of moderate icing potential across the heart of the CWA, and little/no snow/ice potential toward the southeastern portion of the CWA. For the moment, the eventualities with the system Friday night into Saturday will continue to be featured in the HWO, however it is becoming increasingly evident that at least a portion of our area will be in winter weather headlines for the period before too much more time elapses. If you have travel plans anywhere in the region during this interlude, please stay tuned to future forecasts. Fries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Who is this fries guy? Cause I love his writing style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 8 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Crazy temp profiles with the sounding on the 00Z Nam. This is hour 84. Would be sleet yes? I'd say, it would probably be freezing rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, cwc said: Who is this fries guy? Cause I love his writing style. He's great at articulating the situation all year round but love reading the discussions in winter especially when a storm is approaching. He has the perfect balance between using the scientific \ meteorology explanation but not being to complex and it going over everyone's head. To bad we can't get him to post in here lol I attended a SkyWarn training a couple years ago and at the end I was talking to the instructor and brought up how most of the time I just read the discussion's to get a forecast, but especially enjoy reading them when written by Fries. He nodded and said yeah, we hear that a lot, especially from weather folks in the local media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Pretty interesting take from the NWS Pittsburgh discussion this morning: Yeah, very interesting. There is a part of me that wants to see an extreme setup, but a severe ice storm I'm not so sure about, I guess at least it will be on a Friday night so less impact than if it were a weekday. Hopefully we can get a few more ticks east in the coming days and get the cold to speed up a bit and stay mainly sleet or snow. What's your take on it? Seems like the models tend to have a more amped up solution in the medium range, only back off that then correct back slightly in the last 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: He's great at articulating the situation all year round but love reading the discussions in winter especially when a storm is approaching. He has the perfect balance between using the scientific \ meteorology explanation but not being to complex and it going over everyone's head. To bad we can't get him to post in here lol I attended a SkyWarn training a couple years ago and at the end I was talking to the instructor and brought up how most of the time I just read the discussion's to get a forecast, but especially enjoy reading them when written by Fries. He nodded and said yeah, we hear that a lot, especially from weather folks in the local media. I remember a few years back when their discussions were brief and lacking even basic information. I quit reading them and would always look at the surrounding ones. Must have been a crew change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Took long enough for this site to come back. Trends look good. I'm at work so can't dissect them but we are still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 So we can get an east shift on all models but the storm fizzles. I guess it’s better than all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 12z NAM looked like about .5 of ice .2 of sleet and .1ish of snow, GFS was mainly an inch of 33-35 degree rain followed by .05 of snow. Euro, hard to tell, but it seems more agressive getting the cold in, most of us are at or below 32 at the surface by 9pm Friday, with about .8 of precip after that as near as I can tell. Looked like 2-4 of snow on the back end with the rest being zr and sleet. Don't trust any snow maps, no way they will get what is falling from the sky in this situation right in-between the all rain and all snow portion of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, dj3 said: So we can get an east shift on all models but the storm fizzles. I guess it’s better than all rain. I think it was that or a rain. We needed the trough to be less sharp and riding out west to flatten some, and get some kick for the NS vort, we are seeing all that, and getting colder and more frozen, but other edge of the sword is the storm isn't as strong. Question is do we get enough to see snow, or will it be a big ice storm, or a cold rain with flurries on the back end lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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