CranberryWX Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6z GFS comes back East a little, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 14 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Rd, where do you get the thunder model? I'm not sure it's publicly available, its an in-house model run at the weather outlet that Mike Ventrice is with. I've seen a few twitter posts about it from him in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 34 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said: 6z GFS comes back East a little, lol. Right now GFS seems to be on the eastern edge of the envelope of guidance, Euro, UKIE, and GGEM are all to far west so needless to say I'm not a big fan of the trends in guidance over night. Today's 12z runs should start to tighten up the goal posts though as we will be closing in on 72 hours for the main features that will set this up. Would suck to see a storm miss us to the NW after all the near misses to the SE recently, but if one area is more damned than us it's probably central Ohio so I could at least live with it if they got a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 0z and now 6z GFS both went S and E with the Low....giving us a nice hit-see if the other ensembles correct east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looking at the euro ensembles from last night in the lakes/ov forum snowfall is way west of us on pretty much every member. Gfs has been surprisingly consistent for several runs so I am hoping it can score a victory here. Let’s hope today we can get some good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Conditions look favorable for an low cape/high shear event Thursday locally, 80 to 100 kt low level shear, and MU CAPE above 500 j/kg in pockets near Pittsburgh. The snow melt is going to boost instability. Environment looks favorable for strong tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, JPOracle said: Conditions look favorable for an low cape/high shear event Thursday locally, 80 to 100 kt low level shear, and MU CAPE above 500 j/kg in pockets near Pittsburgh. The snow melt is going to boost instability. Environment looks favorable for strong tornadoes Puff...puff...pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 PBZ putting its $ on the Euro, focusing on likelihood of freezing rain. Also calling for 60 on Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 22 minutes ago, JPOracle said: Conditions look favorable for an low cape/high shear event Thursday locally, 80 to 100 kt low level shear, and MU CAPE above 500 j/kg in pockets near Pittsburgh. The snow melt is going to boost instability. Environment looks favorable for strong tornadoes Go away troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Rd9108 said: Go away troll Call me an troll, i just know better lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Maybe it’s a good sign that the nam isn’t way west at this point? Looking for any positives to hang my hat on lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, dj3 said: Maybe it’s a good sign that the nam isn’t way west at this point? Looking for any positives to hang my hat on lol. Yeah I checked the 12z and it closes off at 500, probably would keep it from taking a strong turn to the North. Didn't see that on the GFS though so might just be NAM out in candy land range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah I checked the 12z and it closes off at 500, probably would keep it from taking a strong turn to the North. Didn't see that on the GFS though so might just be NAM out in candy land range. It seems like even the eps is showing a more west to east trajectory after making it to Kentucky/West va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Well gfs takes the low right up our Fanny. Not a big shift but I think I’ve seen this story before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Energy for this storm is still in the northern pacific south of alaska. Long way to go. Models will go back and forth over the coming days. It would be our luck for this system to go to west after all of the east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Energy for this storm is still in the northern pacific south of alaska. Long way to go. Models will go back and forth over the coming days. It would be our luck for this system to go to west after all of the east coast storms. That's most likely what will happen. I'm gonna step away for a bit. These models make me go crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 35 minutes ago, JPOracle said: Call me an troll, i just know better lolz You’re a Pittsburgh rants creation...go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I'm all for optimism, but ouch. 2 of the 51 members for the EPS at 00z have us getting more than 3 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 49 minutes ago, dj3 said: Well gfs takes the low right up our Fanny. Not a big shift but I think I’ve seen this story before. Not an encouraging look from the 12z OP suite thus far that's for sure. I remember a couple of storms that took a similar track, and watching the radar you see the snow line creep its way towards us, only to stop half way though butler county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Not an encouraging look from the 12z OP suite thus far that's for sure. I remember a couple of storms that took a similar track, and watching the radar you see the snow line creep its way towards us, only to stop half way though butler county. Yea after seemingly 2 years of threats that got suppressed we can’t get any help on this one. I wish I wouldn’t have gotten invested in this one, this is a frustrating hobby lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, dj3 said: Yea after seemingly 2 years of threats that got suppressed we can’t get any help on this one. I wish I wouldn’t have gotten invested in this one, this is a frustrating hobby lol. This is no longer a hobby. This doesn't relieve stress it causes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, dj3 said: Yea after seemingly 2 years of threats that got suppressed we can’t get any help on this one. I wish I wouldn’t have gotten invested in this one, this is a frustrating hobby lol. Don't lose hope just yet. We always say that one of these will work out for it. Right? Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, dj3 said: Yea after seemingly 2 years of threats that got suppressed we can’t get any help on this one. I wish I wouldn’t have gotten invested in this one, this is a frustrating hobby lol. I try to keep from getting invested in anything post 72 hours, but this one was pulling me in just a little bit more than normal due to the overall good look for us. There is still plenty of time for a SE trend but it is ironic hoping for that when its always NW NW NW that we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: This is no longer a hobby. This doesn't relieve stress it causes it. I liken it to watching sports, it makes you dislike, or downright hate folks from another region of the country, has the ability to turn your mood on a dime, waste what could be otherwise constructive time, but at the end of the day in the grand scheme of things it doesn't really mean a damn thing. lol Just gotta roll with the punches, keep expectation in check and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Honestly, the GEFS run is better for us. More individual members are in central pa than the 06z. Not much better, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Honestly, the GEFS run is better for us. More individual members are in central pa than the 06z. Not much better, but still Still time for trends. We need to start seeing some southeast trends though especially from the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just curious.. Does anyone know the date of the last storm that was over a foot at KPIT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Rd9108 said: Still time for trends. We need to start seeing some southeast trends though especially from the euro. Euro is coming in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Just curious.. Does anyone know the date of the last storm that was over a foot at KPIT? February 5-6, 2010. Can't believe that was already 8 years ago. Anything seemed possible after that, but oh the torture we have endured since lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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