JPOracle Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Lol Just trust me on it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, JPOracle said: Just trust me on it. lol I remember like 2 years ago a small band was produced but blizzard warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Rd9108 said: I remember like 2 years ago a small band was produced but blizzard warning? well that was just an minor band in comparison and we didn't have a freaking bomb system off shore. Its just like an giant hurricane lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, JPOracle said: well that was just an minor band in comparison and we didn't have a freaking bomb system off shore. Its just like an giant hurricane lol What's gonna cause this hurricane. That storm is not gonna even affect us one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I am very confused on what event we are talking about the NWS issuing a blizzard watch for us. Can someone clarify?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I am very confused on what event we are talking about the NWS issuing a blizzard watch for us. Can someone clarify? . You are not the Only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: I am very confused on what event we are talking about the NWS issuing a blizzard watch for us. Can someone clarify? I think he is just being funny, in that we get no precip while its cold, and the most we see might be a streamer from the steam stack at the power plant. There was actually snow from that about 3-4 years ago, NWS had it on their Facebook page with the radar showing the streamer originating from the power plant.. It was a narrow band, dropped like a coating to quarter inch. Pretty sure we need some specific atmospheric conditions though that don't happen to often. All we get from the coastal is a reinforcing shot of arctic air, probably the coldest we are likely to see this winter, and some light snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Not a bad look for us in the future. The 11th-14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Blizzard warning isn't too likely now, but an winter weather advisory or winter storm warning seems still possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Snow is forming over SW PA right now, i can look up and see it falling and its not making to ground yet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, JPOracle said: Snow is forming over SW PA right now, i can look up and see it falling and its not making to ground yet here No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Not a bad look for us in the future. The 11th-14th Yeah, could be a better chance with that look but need the track a little further SE than depicted verbatim. Next thing we will see is a storm take a decent track but have no cold air to work with so we end up with rain even on the NW side of the low lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah, could be a better chance with that look but need the track a little further SE than depicted verbatim. Next thing we will see is a storm take a decent track but have no cold air to work with so we end up with rain even on the NW side of the low lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, cwc said: Interesting to see the Euro.. Here is the new analogs from the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Trough a little positive for monday. If we can get it to go neutral, I think we stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Trough a little positive for monday. If we can get it to go neutral, I think we stay all snow Wouldn't it shifting neutral/negative draw warmer air up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Well it looks pretty evident that we are gonna go into a relaxation of the cold. For how long? Who knows, but those warm MJO phases keep showing up in the model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Wouldn't it shifting neutral/negative draw warmer air up? Thats a good point. I am speculating and honestly don't have much experience here. I think that is all dependent on the timing of the two pieces. If the cool air is allowed to go further south before the energy with the moisture moves north, then I think the neutral tilt helps us here. I could be wrong. I was trying to find some analogs to help me decide what a neutral tilt would do in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Thats a good point. I am speculating and honestly don't have much experience here. I think that is all dependent on the timing of the two pieces. If the cool air is allowed to go further south before the energy with the moisture moves north, then I think the neutral tilt helps us here. I could be wrong. I was trying to find some analogs to help me decide what a neutral tilt would do in this situation We need the precip to arrive sooner with a weaker disorganized system. With no HP around there's nothing to keep the warm air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 hours ago, cwc said: No surprise there, you have a high drifting off the coast and a low pressure cutting west, perfect recipe for torching upper levels. I know that is 00z Euro, but here is 12z GFS just for reference: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I'll take the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Lake Erie at 49%. How far will it get before the torch? I predict we see more inches of rain in January than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 It seems like many of you are focused on the warm up next week. Let's try and concentrate on Monday. The storm continues south and we are still on the edge of a mixed bag. I'm thinking we could be looking at everything from a potential of 1-2 and slop or 3-5. I know it is only the 18z but looking more promising for something at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, north pgh said: It seems like many of you are focused on the warm up next week. Let's try and concentrate on Monday. The storm continues south and we are still on the edge of a mixed bag. I'm thinking we could be looking at everything from a potential of 1-2 and slop or 3-5. I know it is only the 18z but looking more promising for something at least. Yeah looking at the 18z gefs looks promising for maybe a 3-5 type storm. Regardless I think we get some type of winter weather from it and not just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 37 minutes ago, north pgh said: It seems like many of you are focused on the warm up next week. Let's try and concentrate on Monday. The storm continues south and we are still on the edge of a mixed bag. I'm thinking we could be looking at everything from a potential of 1-2 and slop or 3-5. I know it is only the 18z but looking more promising for something at least. Euro 12z looks like all snow right now. Right in that range of 2-5, but it would be wet and heavy snow. Temps right around freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 hours ago, cwc said: Lake Erie at 49%. How far will it get before the torch? I predict we see more inches of rain in January than snow. Forecast says all the way up to 87% before backing off a little bit to the low 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: Forecast says all the way up to 87% before backing off a little bit to the low 80s y'know what they call liquid precipitation that falls from the sky in 40 degree weather? Rain. Same thing they call liquid precipitation that falls from the sky in 80 degree weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 13 hours ago, north pgh said: It seems like many of you are focused on the warm up next week. Let's try and concentrate on Monday. The storm continues south and we are still on the edge of a mixed bag. I'm thinking we could be looking at everything from a potential of 1-2 and slop or 3-5. I know it is only the 18z but looking more promising for something at least. This Yes, the pattern is breaking down, but we have at least another 7-10 days in my opinion that any threat should be monitored. Pattern will still be evolving and cold will be available under the right storm track \ high pressure location etc. It is early\mid Jan after all so perfect conditions and -30 departures aren't necessary for snow. After that, yeah, we may hit a period that is pretty much no chance for decent event, but I'm hoping by that point we can already see signs of reload. Modify a few things slightly about the pattern we are emerging from and things might break in our favor. Monday event is still evolving, hopefully we can pull an all snow event out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 Mondays storm still looks to be a mostly snow event but the nam and GFS do not have much precip 1-2 inches. Canadian still showing a 3-5 storm. Regardless it looks more and more like a clipper type storm before the warmer air comes in. Let's hope it over performs. Another good thing is Mondays snow will be a day time event. We will actually be able to watch it snow. Unlike the overnight night snows where it snows while we sleep and is over when we wake up. I know it is not a foot but I have learned you take what you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Monday's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.