MikeB_01 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11.6 in of snow is the average at KPIT for January... Anyone going over or under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 34 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 11.6 in of snow is the average at KPIT for January... Anyone going over or under? I'll take under. The lakes are freezing over which is our only source of moisture in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 I say big snow at the end of the month puts us near or over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: 11.6 in of snow is the average at KPIT for January... Anyone going over or under? I say under. The first week of January already looks dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 hours ago, blackngoldrules said: Looks like we have one of those weeks coming up that I really hate. Dry and frigid. Crank up the heating bill and no snow to at least reward us for dealing with the cold. Don't worry, only 5-6 more days of bitter cold, then the warm air arrives just in time to rain early next week. Hopefully the trend for more progressive less amped continues as we draw nearer in time. Realistically that is the next storm to track outside of the arctic front Wednesday and snow showers. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Northwest flow snow shower activity will continue at least into Friday night before the snow machine shuts off sometime Saturday. Friday may be particularly cold with single-digit max temperatures. A brief respite from precipitation will be seen Saturday night into Sunday, before a more organized storm system approaches for Sunday night and Monday. Enough warm air may be pulled north to finally get temperatures above freezing by Monday, and also to allow for liquid precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said: I'll take under. The lakes are freezing over which is our only source of moisture in this pattern. Maybe its just the back to work January 2nd post holiday season blues talking, but I was thinking the same thing. We really need to keep the cold around, but get into a more gradient type pattern, or get some blocking on the Atlantic side to slow the flow down a bit. The ocean storm for the 4th is a good example. Had the flow not been so fast and progressive, probably would have seen a clean phase of all the streams and a pretty big storm that would have at least thrown some snow to us, 7 hours ago, north pgh said: I say big snow at the end of the month puts us near or over. I like the optimism, gut says take the under, but it only takes 2-3 moderate storms or one big one to put us at or above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Well I'm going with the under because I'm a pessimist. It's funny because my family vacation spot may get pounded with wind and snow (Ocean City Maryland). Yet here in cold ass Pittsburgh we can barely manage more than 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 i'll go under as well. Simply because the pattern, though cold right now, is not favoring precip. The end of the month looks slightly more mild as well.. So if it is going to snow, I think we need it in the first half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: i'll go under as well. Simply because the pattern, though cold right now, is not favoring precip. The end of the month looks slightly more mild as well.. So if it is going to snow, I think we need it in the first half of the month. The nice thing is in the dead of winter the pattern doesn't need to be perfect to produce snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 More reason for the under estimate. MJO heading into a warmer phase. Could still get something from this, but will be challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Mondays storm on GFS has storm going further north and mostly rain. Canadian has storm trending South and therefore snow. Will they come together in our benefit? I say the odds are maybe 20% ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, north pgh said: Mondays storm on GFS has storm going further north and mostly rain. Canadian has storm trending South and therefore snow. Will they come together in our benefit? I say the odds are maybe 20% ? Cold and dry, warm and wet. We should know the drill by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I was bored and wanted to Google more about this storm but wow was this thing pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, north pgh said: Mondays storm on GFS has storm going further north and mostly rain. Canadian has storm trending South and therefore snow. Will they come together in our benefit? I say the odds are maybe 20% ? With such an powerful system forming now, anything is possible. Early weekend we will start figuring this out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 -8 in my backyard this morning, brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said: -8 in my backyard this morning, brutal cold. Yeah I noticed a range of +6 to -7 on my car thermometer this morning driving into work. Friday may not see highs out of the single digits, could prove to be the coldest day of the winter. Irritating if we do end up with a snow changing to rain setup Sunday night into Monday, but I've seen it happen countless times before were the cold retreats just ahead of a precip event. My post several days ago about the likely next time we would be above freezing being a few hours before the next precip event was only partially tongue in cheek. I will say this though, with snow cover and the long duration of brutal cold, ground temperatures will be slow to respond, so initially even if we see snow to rain it's going to make for some dangerous travel conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Cold and dry, warm and wet. We should know the drill by now. It’s so sad how true this is. Next week could be a pure example. We finally get precip, but torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: More reason for the under estimate. MJO heading into a warmer phase. Could still get something from this, but will be challenging. Yeah, the only thing that might help a bit is the significance of phase 4,5,6 is pretty low this time of year. I'm hoping the wave stays fairly weak too, at least through the bad phases so that should at least help from setting up an overwhelming warm signal. Of course that doesn't preclude something else from doing so. If the cold stays locked in to the North of us in Canada and we average close to normal then we still have a chance if a storm takes a favorable track. My big concern would be if Canada gets all the cold blasted out via the PAC Jet, then we are probably looking at a minimum of 2 weeks after the cold moves out to get things right again for snow around here and by that time we are heading into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 hours ago, JPOracle said: With such an powerful system forming now, anything is possible. Early weekend we will start figuring this out Such a waste for that beast of a storm to be out in the ocean. It's a shame the whole thing didn't get its act together sooner, nice negative tilt by Mississippi and I could in-vision it tracking up the coast just inland and blasting us with a Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 We may crack 20 today. Anyone know the last time we hit 20? i know the all time consecutive streak is like 10 days. We have to be pushing it. If we don’t hit it today, we likely won’t again until monday. Just a cool side note to track, in what is otherwise frustrating period - esp if the precip arrives Monday in the form of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: We may crack 20 today. Anyone know the last time we hit 20? i know the all time consecutive streak is like 10 days. We have to be pushing it. If we don’t hit it today, we likely won’t again until monday. Just a cool side note to track, in what is otherwise frustrating period - esp if the precip arrives Monday in the form of slop The temp just jumped from 1 to 8 in one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Oh Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12z GFS looks a lot colder now compared to the prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Burghblizz said: We may crack 20 today. Anyone know the last time we hit 20? i know the all time consecutive streak is like 10 days. We have to be pushing it. If we don’t hit it today, we likely won’t again until monday. Just a cool side note to track, in what is otherwise frustrating period - esp if the precip arrives Monday in the form of slop Christmas Day had a high of 32°. Its been an impressive streak of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 12z GFS looks a lot colder now compared to the prior runs. The vort for that monday storm is much further south. Much better look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 23 minutes ago, north pgh said: Oh Canada! Here is just for Monday system on GEM, the warm tongue is pretty evident and it shows in snow totals. GFS went South, but the cold air is retreating, so its a double edge sword. We need the storm so disjointed and south that qpf is limited, otherwise WAA easily scours out cold. I'm not sold on that just yet, just saying what the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The National Weather Service really might want to issue an blizzard watch for Western PA, some localized areas downwind of power plants, like the nuclear plant out in Beaver need to watch out and be prepped. I remember a decade ago being toured the weather service and showed me the fallout model they have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Here is just for Monday system on GEM, the warm tongue is pretty evident and it shows in snow totals. GFS went South, but the cold air is retreating, so its a double edge sword. We need the storm so disjointed and south that qpf is limited, otherwise WAA easily scours out cold. I'm not sold on that just yet, just saying what the models show. We need a high pressure to show up just to keep some cold air in. I'm not sold on this set up for anything more than maybe 2-4 slop storm. Honestly I just want it to get warm up a little so I can get rid of the sheet of ice on my driveway and clean up my car a little. Not to mention taking down my Christmas decorations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Less amped and no negative tilt equals less WAA and more snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 hours ago, JPOracle said: The National Weather Service really might want to issue an blizzard watch for Western PA, some localized areas downwind of power plants, like the nuclear plant out in Beaver need to watch out and be prepped. I remember a decade ago being toured the weather service and showed me the fallout model they have Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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