olafminesaw Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Lol There is the bubble in full force... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I know the totals are down and the precip map looks bad, Im still a little optomistic about a solid 1-2 for everyone. The 500 mb Vort still looks good, the precip map just isn't showing that. Not sure why. Anyway, I think the grass is covered for Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 After the 6z models came in. 1 in 10 chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 39 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I know the totals are down and the precip map looks bad, Im still a little optomistic about a solid 1-2 for everyone. The 500 mb Vort still looks good, the precip map just isn't showing that. Not sure why. Anyway, I think the grass is covered for Christmas morning. Yeah, a little better even this run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 FWIW: The HRRR midwest sector has the precip lining up pretty well with the same idea as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'll take this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: For the most part I accept our climo. Missing out on a big storm by 30-50 miles though is brutal, especially when people within your own sub forum report triple the snow totals, or the place you work is a 26 mile drive but is closed for the day due to snow and you can clean your sidewalk off with a broom and your child doesn't even have a delay. There have been at least 3-4 storms like that over the past 5-6 years. The blizzard last year I think I managed around 5 inches, and had I not known what was happening a few miles away I would have been happy with that. I guess that's one downfall to all this connectivity and information at our fingertips. When I was a kid you were happy with what fell, and only saw what other areas got when Joe Denardo's 6pm weather segment came on and he had the map with area totals. That big storm drought between 1979-1992 would have been brutal on here. Who knows how many near misses we had back then. Side note for today, the cold air is slowly bleeding into the area, won't be much precip left for anything frozen. Unfortunately, this is something I've noticed over the past 10 years or so. We really have a hard time getting any decent changeover events anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: FWIW: The HRRR midwest sector has the precip lining up pretty well with the same idea as the GFS. As long as we can manage a half inch on the ground for Christmas that will be enough to make it looks seasonal. Wouldn't complain if we got a few inches though. I have a picture, I think from 1993 on Christmas morning, and I'm opening our first computer, a Packard Bell 386sx with 4mb of ram running windows 3.1 , in the background you can see out a window and there is snow on the ground and snow is falling. That year after opening presents I opted to go outside in the snow rather than get into any of the new stuff I got, so this sickness runs deep lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: As long as we can manage a half inch on the ground for Christmas that will be enough to make it looks seasonal. Wouldn't complain if we got a few inches though. I have a picture, I think from 1993 on Christmas morning, and I'm opening our first computer, a Packard Bell 386sx with 4mb of ram running windows 3.1 , in the background you can see out a window and there is snow on the ground and snow is falling. That year after opening presents I opted to go outside in the snow rather than get into any of the new stuff I got, so this sickness runs deep lol. I think I remember that Christmas. My wife and I were living in a townhouse in Plum and I remember coming home from Church late at night with a nice light snow falling covering everything. Looking at radar the rain/snow line is coming into PA. If we can hold the precip a little longer into late afternoon we may be able to eek out some slushy snow on rooftops and grassy areas before it quits. My temp is already down to 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 That band to the south is setting up nicely. Maybe we can get an early changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It's snowing here big wet flakes, 34F. The changeover was quick from rain to ice pellet to snow in 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Mostly sleet or graupel here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just started snowing here. Big flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Mabey we can whiten the grass temporarily, with a strong enough band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Slush on deck ....and it quit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: Mabey we can whiten the grass temporarily, with a strong enough band. Got in on that one decent band. Rooftops and grass got whitend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, meatwad said: Heh, I'll take that, shows a nice band of 3 right over my house. Nothing from the change over but was nice to see the snow falling. Need to get the ground cooled off for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Closing in on half an inch, starting to stick to pavement with this last heavier band (a very nice band at that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Closing in on half an inch, starting to stick to pavement with this last heavier band (a very nice band at that). Same here in Carrick. Looks like the GFS verified pretty well for today’s system. I was skeptical about the snow it was showing for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 WWA is up for tonight 7pm-9AM for Fayette ridges 2-4”.....I’m sure the whole sub forum should see a white Christmas with a good 1-3” Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The high res models look good for 1-3 so it's looking like we will get a white Christmas. Honestly give me one storm in the 8-12 nature and I'll be happy for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Merry Christmas all. Enjoy the snow flying tonight. Should be beautiful with all the lights around. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Brrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Brrr ...and there's a wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Honestly give me one storm in the 8-12 nature and I'll be happy for the year. I think that's all we ever ask for but we haven't gotten in many years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 A little rain/snow mix happening here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Mailman said: A little rain/snow mix happening here at the moment. Good too hear as some models were showing a more prolonged period of rain. Hopefully the temp can drop quick. White rain gets old pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Upstream from the area, snow is rapidly developing in the vast areas of differential PVA ahead of a fairly compact vort lobe swinging through Indiana at the moment. Precipitation rates are quite impressive is this area given radar reflectivity values that are pretty extreme for snowfall. That said, surface temperatures in this area of development are barely at freezing, and downstream into our CWA, the area this is moving into is largely well above freezing. While we are coming out of our diurnal maximum, and temperatures will surely sag a bit as the sun sets, ground temperatures are still above freezing, and warm advection will keep substantial temperature falls from occurring until the surface frontal boundary and surface low passes beyond 00z. Because of all of this, snow ratios will start low then trend rapidly higher in the 00-06z window, and snow will surely efficiently start to accumulate during that window as well. With all that in mind, snow accumulations based upon rapidly rising ratios were adjusted upward in the area of differential PVA to generally around 2 inches during the 6-hour interval. This should preclude the necessity of issuing additional advisories but get many areas pretty close to the 3 inch criteria. Fries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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