north pgh Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Time to start a Winter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Not gonna lie, the snowflake adds a little something to it. Here’s to a great winter. (Or at least better than the last two) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 I refuse to track this year..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 I refuse to track this year.....Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, north pgh said: Looks like some snow for thanksgiving? You weren't looking at the 0z CMC, were you? More than just a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 All this relatively cold air early on makes me think we're due for a big warmup in December and/or January. Please no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Very strong cold front about to move through. Some very low pressures right now. I'm currently at 29.12". Maybe some snow showers around tomorrow. Nothing to get excited about but the best we can do so far this young season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 I'm starting to bite on the models showing some decent blocking getting established in about 10 days or so, they have been pretty consistent and it doesn't appear to get pushed out in time. Hopefully this looks the same this time next week. Also looks like more hits to perturb the PV which would probably lead to blocking having some staying power and an overall -AO Dec with relaxation interludes only going neutral at worst. Getting way ahead of myself, but maybe an above average shot at a white Christmas, certainly a different look than the past couple Decembers. DPjv-sjVAAAUPK2.jpg:large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 I am lying in the weeds waiting. Atleast tomorrow will be nice to out up decorations outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 27, 2017 Author Share Posted November 27, 2017 Looks are at least some real cold will be coming in the 2nd week of December. Let's hope it gets active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 I'm good with an established -AO taking hold, but like most, remain skeptical of long-term looks. They rarely worked out last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 12 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I'm starting to bite on the models showing some decent blocking getting established in about 10 days or so, they have been pretty consistent and it doesn't appear to get pushed out in time. Hopefully this looks the same this time next week. Also looks like more hits to perturb the PV which would probably lead to blocking having some staying power and an overall -AO Dec with relaxation interludes only going neutral at worst. Getting way ahead of myself, but maybe an above average shot at a white Christmas, certainly a different look than the past couple Decembers. DPjv-sjVAAAUPK2.jpg:large Yeah, lot of chatter about a change next week. Looks like it starts to trend colder with a frontal passage about mid next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 We are getting the cold. Now we just gotta get the precip. Looking at the weeklies the cold is there but the precip really isn't. One step at a time, but maybe we will get a white Christmas this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 12z shows some pretty cold temperatures coming. Too lazy to post pics but get the cold first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 33 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 12z shows some pretty cold temperatures coming. Too lazy to post pics but get the cold first. Day 9-14... Looks chilly. Average high temps this time of year are in the low 40s to upper 30s. Could be real cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 We are getting the cold. Now we just gotta get the precip. Looking at the weeklies the cold is there but the precip really isn't. One step at a time, but maybe we will get a white Christmas this year. If the precip isn't there then I'll take what we have right now. Lol Cold and dry just means the heating bills go up and nothing to enjoy out of it. Hopefully, something develops so the cold air isn't wasted. We have a whole season still ahead of us but hate to see wasted opportunities, which we get a lot of every year. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 12 hours ago, blackngoldrules said: If the precip isn't there then I'll take what we have right now. Lol Cold and dry just means the heating bills go up and nothing to enjoy out of it. Hopefully, something develops so the cold air isn't wasted. We have a whole season still ahead of us but hate to see wasted opportunities, which we get a lot of every year. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk As long as we get something, even if its just a couple clippers and some LES with dustings to an inch every other day I'd be alright with that through the holidays. After that though, if we are staring at -4 temperature departures with 2 inches of snow it does start to get old and the itching for a big storm or bust starts to grow. Just flipping through the 00z \ 06z GFS certainly looks like opportunities for some storms are in the mix. Good news is the pattern change keeps holding in place rather then getting pushed back in time. It may take this upcoming pattern to run its course and start relaxing before a big storm comes of it, and if so hopefully there is a quick reload afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 I saw this long range comparison tweeted out by the NWS. Cold is coming down the pike. 6 to 10 day vs. 8 to 14 day Temperature outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Way too early for anything specific. And I know that everyone has been documenting this period already, but I am very excited. Cold air is definitely on the way! I did a little reanalysis of the some senarios surrounding the NAO. The top graphic looks dry and that is reasonable to explain why the models aren't spitting out too much precip in the first few days of december. The strong -NAO yields neutral to slightly below average precip for the area. However, once the -NAO relaxes a little bit (the second week of Dec), we get into a more neutral NAO. More favorable for precipitation. Something to keep an eye on. Its going to be an interesting couple of weeks. Good news is that we are starting this winter off with a decent chance to see something. At least the cold air is here. Now we just have to see if the precipitation can come along with it. Happy Tracking!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Well boys we got some tracking to do. The newest GFS shows a nice storm on the 8th for the usual suspects. Lucky for us this is a week away. We've seen historical storms shift in 2 days to screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Well boys we got some tracking to do. The newest GFS shows a nice storm on the 8th for the usual suspects. Lucky for us this is a week away. We've seen historical storms shift in 2 days to screw us. And usually the ones that already screw us don't budge an inch. LolSent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 The 15-16 storm has been there for 3 runs. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Will be interesting to watch our first player. GFS has it much slower and therefore coming through with nighttime cold temps (0z puts a couple of in on us). Though, the 6z seems to move it much faster and keeps almost anyone outside the mountains snow free. The Euro is pretty quick with the front and has pretty much 0 snow for us because all the precip comes through during the day. Maybe we can get this thing to slow down and come through over night and we can get a few in on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Euro 12z for the cold front that comes through tuesday night and wednesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Looks like the 12z Euro is starting to key on a big storm. Too bad it's too far east that even if it came west it would jackpot the usual suspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 I'm not worried about any of the specifics at this range, it won't be until after the front goes through and the pattern sets in that models will have a clue on storms let alone the track. Just seeing storms on the map at this point is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 GFS has a train of threats in fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Whoa... Brrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 14 hours ago, Mailman said: GFS has a train of threats in fantasy range. GFS has been amazingly spot on with the timing of the cold front passage Tuesday night for quite a while....seems like well over a week ago...just sayin. The week after the initial cold plunge has several clippers events coming down rounding the base of the trough with reinforcing cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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