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Early Winter Banter, Observations & General Discussion 2017


powderfreak

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I was wondering....does the latent heat release get folks above 32, or just up a couple of degrees?  If it doesn't get above 32, and the wind continues out of the north then some places are going to have one helluva ice storm in a short period of time.

Well the latent heat of freezing will only continue to add heat as long as there is freezing occurring. But once you reach 32, WAA starts to take over, so that's usually the end game.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We are ripping sleet here.

This is why the rules of thumb can sometimes blow. Normally you say +7 aloft (you aren't that far from GYX) is all FZRA, but there is a decent amount of low level cold below the inversion and the coldest temp in that layer is also -7 C. 

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I was wondering....does the latent heat release get folks above 32, or just up a couple of degrees?  If it doesn't get above 32, and the wind continues out of the north then some places are going to have one helluva ice storm in a short period of time.

Up over 30F now. Once we start melting a little we start getting some latent cooling. So that’ll try to offset any warming. I’m sure we’ll spike up at some point post cold fropa. 

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Up to 31.8F  Mod ZR.   Temp should go above freezing just in time.  Birch trees starting to take a pretty good hit.  Hope to get the ice off before cool down so they don't stay bent over the next few days....

ice.jpg

Those birch trees bring back bad memory's of 1998

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Up over 30F now. Once we start melting a little we start getting some latent cooling. So that’ll try to offset any warming. I’m sure we’ll spike up at some point post cold fropa. 

Don't go up Hodgdon my daughter tells me someone just crashed in her yard.

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Rapid temp rise has ceased.  Temp stuck at 32F.  Like Brian said maybe the melting counters the latent heat release of the rain.  In any event the fields are a sheet of ice.  The 1/2" of sleet and then a 1/4" of ice has made them look like skating rinks.  Deer might be breaking some legs tonight as I can't see this ice layer melting even if we get up to the mid 30's.

ice 2.jpg

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34F at home with moderate to heavy rain though the snowpack in the  yard looks bulletproof.  The water is actually like running down on top of it.

32F with rain/freezing rain at 1,500ft base of the resort. 

39F at the summit.

Our wedge here on the east side is 2,500ft-1,500ft in elevation.

Should be a period of snow later tonight, decent upslope signal for a time with the NW cold push.

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I think we need to call it for what it is. A bigtime forecast bust from the metro west up through central NH. My driveway and the street is a skating rink. Not sure the city ever sent out any equipment. Temp has prettymuch levelled off at 30.7, although some of the ice accretion is falling off the trees due to the moderate rain.

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12 minutes ago, MarkO said:

I think we need to call it for what it is. A bigtime forecast bust from the metro west up through central NH. My driveway and the street is a skating rink. Not sure the city ever sent out any equipment. Temp has prettymuch levelled off at 30.7, although some of the ice accretion is falling off the trees due to the moderate rain.

Lowell had a WWA. Shame on them.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely a good overperformer for those that wedge. 

Yeah was kind of surprised to encounter a skating rink this morning outside...figured we could flirt with it, but then it would retreat, but it never really did.

Wonder if a huge chunk of the interior N of pike never even warm sectors....front is already near Hudson Valley...prob get 10F spikes everywhere when it mixes out during FROPA.

 

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