Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Man... that NAM still refuses to budge on this thing at 12z ... It has BOS (FRH grid point) at 0 C at 12z in the 980 mb level, which was about spot on/initializaton ... but bottle rockets that location to 51 at 980 mb by 18z ... That's going to be interesting to monitor. This whole situation may just be acutely exposing the intrinsic inability of even higher resolution modeling types to resolve the topographical feed-backs into the lower boundary layer - like ... the model just tosses the initialization because it doesn't mean anything to it as 'undefined'. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 0.19 in the bucket at ORH last hour...temp up to 31F though, so you can see how latent heating is taking its toll. Wind still 040 though with dew of 29F...so there's going to continue to be a bit more accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 yeah.. just to be clear. the bust doesn't stop busting if the accretion halts. i think it is important to distinguish that and nip it in the bud ahead of time, because in the annuls of busts it should not matter whether it's 31.9 or 32.2... This was canned by the models with stench Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Man... that NAM still refuses to budge on this thing at 12z ... It has BOS (FRH grid point) at 0 C at 12z in the 980 mb level, which was about spot on/initializaton ... but bottle rockets that location to 51 at 980 mb by 18z ... That's going to be interesting to monitor. This whole situation may just be acutely exposing the intrinsic inability of even higher resolution modeling types to resolve the topographical feed-backs into the lower boundary layer - like ... the model just tosses the initialization because it doesn't mean anything to it as 'undefined'. heh Yea I don't quite understand it either. Using the 0z WRF-ARW2, since it seems to be verifying closest to 2m temps thus far. Gets me up to mid to upper 30's - that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: yeah.. just to be clear. the bust doesn't stop busting if the accretion halts. i think it is important to distinguish that and nip it in the bud ahead of time, because in the annuls of busts it should not matter whether it's 31.9 or 32.2... This was canned by the models with stench Yeah guidance was really bad in this...it typically almost always underestimates the CAD and the extent southwest anyway...but this was one of the worst ones in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Up to 28.6° but pouring zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 As some craft brewers go by the way side, Some that have found there niche are expanding, Luke has done an awesome job in the Bates Mill................... http://www.sunjournal.com/new-historic-taproom-for-baxter-brewing/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Yesterday's 18z NAM had ORH almost 50F at this hour....the 18z GFS was even worse...it had ORH at 52F by 15z. At least the 00z GFS improved to 49F...but then the 06z GFS regressed back to 50F on a 9 hour forecast. 06z NAM was at 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah guidance was really bad in this...it typically almost always underestimates the CAD and the extent southwest anyway...but this was one of the worst ones in a while. i'm actually kicking my self for not being a bit more steadfast ... up through three days ago i was hammering the colder solution but as jbenet astutely defined, it's hard in the face of a tsunamis of shorter range guidance to stick to one's guns. so... much to my chagrin i holstered mine. but, i'm claiming a moral victory here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Temp rising rapidly. Up 1.5F past 30 minutes. 29.9F Mod ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I just cranked the heat in the house. The trees are very quickly accumulating significant ice. Still only 30..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yesterday's 18z NAM had ORH almost 50F at this hour....the 18z GFS was even worse...it had ORH at 52F by 15z. At least the 00z GFS improved to 49F...but then the 06z GFS regressed back to 50F on a 9 hour forecast. 06z NAM was at 40F. Agreed, my temp sat @ 27F from midnight to about 6am, went from 28F to now 30F................please NO flash freeze later! Rather have snow then this, however, auto body shops are happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 DAW still at 26. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 As soon as those heavier echoes moved in, Temp jumped 2 degrees to 23°F, Looks like a prolonged period of +ZR inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just pouring ZR. Slowly edging upwards but still 28.6F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 That last batch of ZR was/is impressive. Everything glazed over with what appears to be about 0.1" accretion, maybe more. Temp slowly rising, but still at 29.5 from a low of 27.1 at about 8AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Man... that NAM still refuses to budge on this thing at 12z ... It has BOS (FRH grid point) at 0 C at 12z in the 980 mb level, which was about spot on/initializaton ... but bottle rockets that location to 51 at 980 mb by 18z ... That's going to be interesting to monitor. This whole situation may just be acutely exposing the intrinsic inability of even higher resolution modeling types to resolve the topographical feed-backs into the lower boundary layer - like ... the model just tosses the initialization because it doesn't mean anything to it as 'undefined'. heh 19 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea I don't quite understand it either. Using the 0z WRF-ARW2, since it seems to be verifying closest to 2m temps thus far. Gets me up to mid to upper 30's - that's it. I think part of the issue is the nature of the inversion too. It is very shallow but strong. Even a tiny amount of mixing is spiking temps well into the 30s and 40s. Just taking our sounding, if we mix to 970ish (about 500-700 feet) today that's 35-36 just eyeballing it. Imagine if a model is trained to naturally mix out during the daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 and to Oceanwx's point ... Willamic CT is 54 now while 20 miles west over at Harford it's 37 and draining. ORH is 1,000' and it 31 tho .. still, it's shallow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 well not for not ... it's SOMEthing entertaining during an otherwise abandonment of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Nasty here in Andover. We ice. Temps are responding though so Mother Nature doing her balancing work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Best deluge with temps below 32. 30.5 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Damage in Tolland sends his congrats to all those experiencing a damaging ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I think between the sleet and freezing drizzle, we're a little closer to rime ice than pure glaze ice here. The trees and very white, so definitely on the opaque side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 pretty icy here in Billerica still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 so long as the ageostrophic flow continues to undercut... if the accretion lightens up ..you may actually recede a half degree. If the accretion continues at this hefty rate, that's offsetting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just went outside to do an ob, Heavy heavy pelting right now, +IP, 23°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think between the sleet and freezing drizzle, we're a little closer to rime ice than pure glaze ice here. The trees and very white, so definitely on the opaque side. that's the best kind... if you are going to ice and risk grid (ha!) ... having pixie dust mixed in making it white like that is pretty fantastic looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: so long as the ageostrophic flow continues to undercut... if the accretion lightens up ..you may actually recede a half degree. If the accretion continues at this hefty rate, that's offsetting. I was wondering....does the latent heat release get folks above 32, or just up a couple of degrees? If it doesn't get above 32, and the wind continues out of the north then some places are going to have one helluva ice storm in a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think between the sleet and freezing drizzle, we're a little closer to rime ice than pure glaze ice here. The trees and very white, so definitely on the opaque side. We are ripping sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 31.3F Mod ZR. Temp continues to steadily rise rapidly. Up 3F past hour. Trees have a solid glaze. I'd guess about .2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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