CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Some ice in Andover, but roads are fine. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea Tip, we had the right idea with this for a while. But when all guidance is pinned against you at short lead times it's difficult to stand your ground. These types of events are clearly something guidance really struggles---and that's an understatement. Guidance in general can "see" the cold tuck, but forget about the details.... Even the RGEM and NAM have had to continue to correct colder 6 hrs out, virtually every run since 0z Sunday...I am making a mental note here that the ARW-WRF verified best in seeing the duration and intensity of the cold.... I agree, I'm quite concerned that most of that next batch will be ice around here. 27F in Exeter NH. There isn't really much of an impetus for cold to retreat until around 18z (other than the typical latent heating processes of FZRA). Just updated to drill temps down through midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 12 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea Tip, we had the right idea with this for a while. But when all guidance is pinned against you at short lead times it's difficult to stand your ground. These types of events are clearly something guidance really struggles---and that's an understatement. Guidance in general can "see" the cold tuck, but forget about the details.... Even the RGEM and NAM have had to continue to correct colder 6 hrs out, virtually every run since 0z Sunday...I am making a mental note here that the ARW-WRF verified best in seeing the duration and intensity of the cold.... I agree, I'm quite concerned that most of that next batch will be ice around here. I mean it's one thing if it's 30 F and calm... but no. We have actual mechanical momentum still undercutting the warm boundary that WPC aligns boldly along the S. Shore of New England as though it were actually going to succeed in swathing N. Winds are 5 to 10 kts and flags are wobbling SW. It's really no different than an April Morning on a forecast for an early season warm day as it is anticipated that a warm front will push through ... while mist and 40F mank is still in the process of penetrating. There are two layers to the atmosphere... There is the one that is organizing the frontal tapestry they are analyzing, than there is the layer underneath all that... It's kinda sorta the way to conceptualize things when this happens. And, the former may evolve independently... So we'll see where this goes, but that man...that's a lot of water immediately upstream poised to dump into a 30/29 F ageostrophic undercut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There isn't really much of an impetus for cold to retreat until around 18z (other than the typical latent heating processes of FZRA). Just updated to drill temps down through midday. I just was considering that when I responded ... the phase transition thing, but that is why in icing it is important to have a lower ... ah ish, DP source to bleed in. We got that too. This is going to be cold bust. By the time that scours out we're spiking behind fropa ... damage done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There isn't really much of an impetus for cold to retreat until around 18z (other than the typical latent heating processes of FZRA). Just updated to drill temps down through midday. Yea. And the current radar depiction says a lot. Deep convection, but raggedy look, with the appearance of an ambiguous warm sector. I can't get the SPC page to load, but to my eye --is that a secondary surface low is located around Maryland/Northern Virginia...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 It shouldn’t be a surprise. When models have NNE winds draining from a cold source all the while trying to show diurnal warming, take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It shouldn’t be a surprise. When models have NNE winds draining from a cold source all the while trying to show diurnal warming, take the under. It was wayyyy under. That's the surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I just was considering that when I responded ... the phase transition thing, but that is why in icing it is important to have a lower ... ah ish, DP source to bleed in. We got that too. This is going to be cold bust. By the time that scours out we're spiking behind fropa ... damage done. We have some upper teens dewpoints hanging around just a little NE of the office right now. We're in it for the duration here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It shouldn’t be a surprise. When models have NNE winds draining from a cold source all the while trying to show diurnal warming, take the under. That's one thing I think we handled pretty well this past week. I've been passing this storm back and forth to the same guy for like 4-5 days. We've basically been chucking guidance and hand drawing our temps in. Did we have low 20s at this time? No, but we did have it below freezing. So sensibly the public forecast hasn't changed a whole lot. FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I just was considering that when I responded ... the phase transition thing, but that is why in icing it is important to have a lower ... ah ish, DP source to bleed in. We got that too. This is going to be cold bust. By the time that scours out we're spiking behind fropa ... damage done. Yea, no kiddin'. PSM, is still 25/24 with a calm wind, and heavy precip about an hr away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I caved... I was dead wrong to do so. But I think what is going on is a bit more than merely acknowledging a NNE flow from a cool source. We covered that ...like Negan on skull in Walking Dead. The issue is that originally this was predictable and the models were successful in conning (me in particular) into giving up on matters. I just looked at the NAM model solution from 06z ...the one at TTbits that has ptype? NOW it shows mixing clear to fropa in southern NH. SO, Jbenedet hit the nail on the head... It's hard not to cave when pinned against short term modeling... And, I did notice the meso-models tucking the hell out of the region in the runs from 30 yours ago but just threw my hands at that point. oh well... I feel a moral victory, though lost the forecast game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Danger ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: That's one thing I think we handled pretty well this past week. I've been passing this storm back and forth to the same guy for like 4-5 days. We've basically been chucking guidance and hand drawing our temps in. Did we have low 20s at this time? No, but we did have it below freezing. So sensibly the public forecast hasn't changed a whole lot. FZRA. That's awesome. Fantastic job. You guys did really well with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 11 minutes ago, jbenedet said: It was wayyyy under. That's the surprise. You’re still shook from LI climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, White Rain said: Temps are locked in between 28-29F out here with a decent glaze from yesterday already. Temps look pretty stable and have actually fallen for a good part of the morning. Looks like this first batch of rain is going to bring a solid glaze. yeah... I didn't check any data this morning but took note over at my pad in Ayer that we glazed with that kind of ice that turns to powder when the blade of the scraper ultimately fails to remove the sheen of the stuff on that first couple grinds... My knuckles were stinging... I said screw this and sat in the car waiting for the engine to heat enough for the defrost setting when the obvious finally dawned on me. Pan of faucet, warm-hot water and I was driving 30 seconds later. The roads are not terrible like Scott mentioned... They rarely will be at 30 F and some municipal salt application; and there's not going to be much ice when combining traffic. But any untreated surfaces are comical under foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You’re still shook from LI climo Still learning the climo, but shook only by the epic modeling failure. I expected much colder than guidance, but verification was night and day versus even short term guidance. There was a topic created for "low topped squall line". And there was never a topic created for this...Ya feel me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It shouldn’t be a surprise. When models have NNE winds draining fr om a cold source all the while trying to show diurnal warming, take the under. I Recall you said very strong SW winds at some level equal weak CAD circa 2 days ago W this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Still learning the climo, but shook only by the epic modeling failure. I expected much colder than guidance, but verification was night and day versus even short term guidance. There's was a topic created for "low topped squall line". And there was never a topic created for this...Ya feel me? Its always "AWT" w some. We rewrite Icing and 28 in ASH I wonder how btv wrf Did w this cad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I Recall you said very strong SW winds at some level equal weak CAD circa 2 days ago That was more for why it can’t penetrate further south like into CT and further down in MA. Otherwise it would be in the U10s here and near 30 at EWB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Still learning the climo, but shook only by the epic modeling failure. I expected much colder than guidance, but verification was night and day versus even short term guidance. There was a topic created for "low topped squall line". And there was never a topic created for this...Ya feel me? Low topped squall line is our resident severe weenie. Why didn’t you or anyone else make a thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 12 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That's awesome. Fantastic job. You guys did really well with this. What I've done in the past is save what we call an edit area (say, every grid point where T < 32) and then call that edit area back up when I think we'll have CAD and drill temps down just in that area. That way I don't blend in too much of the guidance that wants to rocket IZG up to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Deck, sidewalk, driveway are a total mess. 30.8*, raining too hard to build up at this point I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 -7.3 C at 270 feet, +7.0 C at 2700 feet. Solid inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 21°F, We had 1.0" snow/sleet overnight, Switched to -ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 We’re losing the CAA so with light winds, slowly lowering inversion aloft, and latent heat processes of ZR, expect a slow climb in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Serious downpours every so often. Very wintry appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I will say, good luck SNH with moderate to heavy ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Low topped squall line is our resident severe weenie. Why didn’t you or anyone else make a thread? A factor, but that was created irrespective of short term guidance? The squall line wasn't conjured from his imagination; it was showing up across guidance yesterday. I never do. I guess bc I feel it obligates me to a higher level of posting, than "casual". That's my problem. But speaking with respect to the community and guidance consensus, I'm sure you see my point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I will say, good luck SNH with moderate to heavy ZR. 26.8F at the house. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 BDL 34F...TolSTEM 43F. Maybe even warmer above the school? Congrats to those hill towns for holding onto the thaw a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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