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Early Winter Banter, Observations & General Discussion 2017


powderfreak

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

What places are the radiational cooling kings of the northeast?  Meaning the places that are likely to have the coldest temperatures on nights of ideal radiational cooling?  I have FOK, MVY and MJX in my list (Westhampton, Martha's Vineyard and Toms River.)  All are located on the coast.

We're still east of the center of the arctic high as pressures are still increasing here (30.54 and rising.)  But tonight won't be ideal for radiational cooling as clouds will start moving in here around 8 PM but eastern sections of Long Island can still radiate down into the teens, our area will probably stay in the upper 20s though (24 here right now.)

 

I also would say OWD and TAN in MA really tank in ideal conditions. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like some high clouds tonight. Might affect radiatiors.

Clouds will start moving in here around 8 PM, but the forecasts still call for teens at FOK, before the forecast for clouds though they had a chance to get down into the single digits.

 

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5 hours ago, nzucker said:

Canada has one of the highest snow covers for this time of year. November 2017 is one of the highest for global snow cover, and North American snow cover, just as November 2016 was the worst. There is snow from British Columbia to Quebec. As well as across much of the Northern Plains and Intermountain West

I mean you can always say, "Well it's modified because it's not x degrees" and then pick an absurdly low value. Of course it is not -20F in early November, that's not a possible temperature for this time of year. If we set a record low of 45F in mid-July, would you say, "It's modified because it's not 0F and a blinding blizzard?" Of course not!

Modified to me implies moderating arctic air that arrives on westerly winds and comes from Western Canada and then dips down into the Lakes/OH Valley, before finally arriving in weaker form. HYSPLIT analysis shows this airmass is straight from the North Pole. Pure northerly CAA.

To me, record low indicates this is NOT modified.

Dude, you there is no logic anywhere in this post above - flawed everywhere.... Shows a distinct lack of understanding as to the rudimentary facts and behaviors of the natural world.  About all this shows is valid sentence structure and enough of a command for English to communicate - unfortunately, ...you are clearly doing so from a perspective steeped in ignorance and faux understanding where there is any at all.

-20 F air there -->  +20 F here = modification.  Period.  Stop responding

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

MOS fail. No surprise at all really. 

Never MOS on night one of a good CAA regime. 

Yet we managed to whiff on CON by 11 degrees. We were too cold at every single ASOS/AWOS site. 

It's funny when it radiates we don't switch to MOS soon enough, and when it doesn't radiate we stay on MOS too long. Forecast soundings FTW. If they stay mixed, take the raw 2 m temps.

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5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah that doesn’t bother me. Honestly. Radiation cold is not real , because as soon as sun comes up it’s 65 where they were scraping. This is real cold . Still windy . We run 

Just like elevation snow is not real snow?  I mean, if it doesn't snow at all elevations, it's not real, right?

 

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