ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Def a zonal look...but this has been advertised on the ensembles for a while...you might recall the talk last week was the relaxation after T-day weekend. This is the relaxation now manifesting itself on the operational runs because it is now inside of 10 days. But there is good consensus for reloading the pattern after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Def a zonal look...but this has been advertised on the ensembles for a while...you might recall the talk last week was the relaxation after T-day weekend. This is the relaxation now manifesting itself on the operational runs because it is now inside of 10 days. But there is good consensus for reloading the pattern after that. Hmm, from Judah Cohen on Twitter. @judah47 39m39 minutes ago More Here is a head scratcher - both the GFS and ECMWF are predicting a AO-, NAO- and PNA+ in early December which is the straight flush of teleconnections if you want #cold in the Eastern US, yet it is not predicted to be cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro bias alert. Not saying that’s it but it certainly can be effecting the amplitude. Agree. Was more responding to J Gordons reply about Kevin in panic mode and referencing nothing to support his concerns. Certainly things can change and I think several were previously talking about a bit of modification towards end of Nov beginning of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Not the prettiest of looks PANIC MODE!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Agree. Was more responding to J Gordons reply about Kevin in panic mode and referencing nothing to support his concerns. Certainly things can change and I think several were previously talking about a bit of modification towards end of Nov beginning of Dec. My point being, it may be correct, it may not be correct. If you look at Judah Cohen's perplexity over the -NAO, -AO, +PNA panning out in torch instead of a significant cool down and potential storminess. But, ultimately, que sera, sera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: My point being, it may be correct, it may not be correct. If you look at Judah Cohen's perplexity over the -NAO, -AO, +PNA panning out in torch instead of a significant cool down and potential storminess. But, ultimately, que sera, sera It's all good and I actually agree with you. It's still only November and there's been much talk about the reloading etc. Just wanted to point out latest Euro run showing that flat look is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 No panic at all . Most of us have been expecting this AN Nov 28- Dec 8 period. Some days will be be furnaced, others normal .. then hammer drops . 3 more weeks or so for leaf cleanup unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Euro isn't flat in the long range, it actually has a pretty poleward PNA/EPO ridge ...the relaxation zonal look is day 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 hour ago, CoolMike said: This makes sense, thanks! I've always treated SNE as MA,RI, and CT. Central areas would be adjacent VT and NH up through the lakes region and into srn ME. Nrn Greens, Whites and central and Nrn ME as NNE. If I want to specify certain weather conditions being different in SNE, I would just refer to it as ORH hills, Berks, NW CT...etc. I mean it's subjective...but I find it easy that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No panic at all . Most of us have been expecting this AN Nov 28- Dec 8 period. Some days will be be furnaced, others normal .. then hammer drops . 3 more weeks or so for leaf cleanup unfortunately how certain aer you that the bottom falls out in 3 weeks. thaty's a ways off to be locking anything in isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: how certain aer you that the bottom falls out in 3 weeks. thaty's a ways off to be locking anything in isn't it? He’s locking winter in this thread and melted in the other. When you add it up, it’s Even Steven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 3 hours ago, tamarack said: +1. I assume the bolded was intended as snark, but it reminds me of my issues concerning use of dendrochronology to support AGW hypotheses. Except where trees are at the extreme edges of their ranges, temp change exerts a teeny tiny effect on diameter growth compared to growing season precip. And since the hottest days in a warming climate are apt to often be in droughty stretches (less clouds, less water vapor to heat), temps and moisture would be working at odds with each other. Tree ring analysis is much more useful in identifying past droughts. Looks like a fairly calm short-medium stretch ahead, with some rollercoaster temps averaging out near normal. I'm -3.2 so far this month, +8.0 for 1-6, then -7.2 since then, with only this past Sunday AN since 11/6. Will need to approach 50 this afternoon to finish the day AN; my avg is 41/23, and it was 18 at 9 PM obs time last evening, under the stars. I use to like hunting back in the 70's on Great Northern's land as they would attach these yellow patches of fabric that said "Feel it stretch" on there trees to show diameter growth................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I've always treated SNE as MA,RI, and CT. Central areas would be adjacent VT and NH up through the lakes region and into srn ME. Nrn Greens, Whites and central and Nrn ME as NNE. If I want to specify certain weather conditions being different in SNE, I would just refer to it as ORH hills, Berks, NW CT...etc. I mean it's subjective...but I find it easy that way. Give or take........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 My wife and I went out to get groceries and it was mild and sunny when we went into the store. Came out 45 minutes later (Thanksgiving shopping is not fun) but sun was down and it was cold. Enough so that my wife was like what just happened? Looks like MVL had a similar experience and the ASOS dropped 15F in 1 hour. Talk about some cooling. 50F to 35F with the sunset. Not sure I've seen a 15F one hour drop before with no FROPA. Looks like BML though is beating us...they are already down to 30F off a high of 53F. They've already lost 23 degrees from their afternoon high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 Whole bunch of impressive drops this evening. Plymouth, NH lost 13F in 1 hour and is already at 30F off a high of 51F. HIE did a 14F drop in 1 hour and is also down to 30F off a high of 53F. Like a vacuum out there just sucking warmth out of the mountain valleys. Nice way to mitigate a "torch". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Disaster up here with that rolled over propane tanker in front of tilt’n diner. Everything is still closed. 2.5hrs to get to lowes and back earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Disaster up here with that rolled over propane tanker in front of tilt’n diner. Everything is still closed. 2.5hrs to get to lowes and back earlier. Whoa. Jesus that could have been bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 38 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Whole bunch of impressive drops this evening. Plymouth, NH lost 13F in 1 hour and is already at 30F off a high of 51F. HIE did a 14F drop in 1 hour and is also down to 30F off a high of 53F. Like a vacuum out there just sucking warmth out of the mountain valleys. Nice way to mitigate a "torch". LOL, look at BTV. Imagine going through that pass at Jspin's place. From shawls and scarfs in Waterbury, to Jimmet Buffet playing as you role down the top of your Saab...arms flapping in the breeze just a few miles later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Whoa. Jesus that could have been bad. They just evacuated all of downtown up to wally. I guess they couldnt drain all of the propane before the attempt to turn it back over. It happened late this morning. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: They just evacuated all of downtown up to wally. I guess they couldnt drain all of the propane before the attempt to turn it back over. It happened late this morning. lol No basket or Wally. Not good for getting stuff before the holiday on a pinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: They just evacuated all of downtown up to wally. I guess they couldnt drain all of the propane before the attempt to turn it back over. It happened late this morning. lol Bob Cormier is a friend of mine and the Chief of Police for Tilton. It's been a mess. Exit 20 is closed just as everyone comes north for the holiday. Good thing is no one got hurt. Weatherwise its a very, very warm evening up on the hill. 47F nice south breeze, that balmy feel in the winter months. I see some weather stations around me are below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No basket or Wally. Not good for getting stuff before the holiday on a pinch. I think they are open. From that point onward right through the outlets were all evacuated. I think rt3 is closed all the way up to near Pirate’s Cove/Jay’s Marina...wherever Lancaster Hill Rd starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2017 Author Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, look at BTV. Imagine going through that pass at Jspin's place. From shawls and scarfs in Waterbury, to Jimmet Buffet playing as you role down the top of your Saab...arms flapping in the breeze just a few miles later. Yeah lol crazy. It's so funny how JSpin's area is the weather divider so many times. You go west of his location on I-89 and go around the edge of a 3000ft peak and when you come out the other side into the Bolton flats, you are only 200ft lower but it's like wide open, the wind is blowing, it's well mixed and warm...going the other way from his spot it's all mountain valley towns and hollows. He's definitely at the gateway to either the Champlain Valley or interior VT east of the Spine. We haven't dropped any further, still holding at 34F....the WAA aloft is winning out and it's 47F at 1,500ft lol. For the time being it's preserving the snow left on the north side of my place haha. March sun would've toasted that today but I have no idea how 2" of fluff survived 52F and full sunshine today on a dark surface like the dirt parking lot. Like our two dirt parking lots have kept the most snow when in March they are mud-pits after one sunny day. If only we could get 10-20" snows in Nov like March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2017 Author Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: They just evacuated all of downtown up to wally. I guess they couldnt drain all of the propane before the attempt to turn it back over. It happened late this morning. lol Jesus. Can't imagine what the stores are like too... getting groceries today I was cursing my wife for wanting to go at 5pm. It was like gridlocked inside the store with carts filled to the brim and no where to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I saw this tonight in Petersham MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Jesus. Can't imagine what the stores are like too... getting groceries today I was cursing my wife for wanting to go at 5pm. It was like gridlocked inside the store with carts filled to the brim and no where to go. Hopefully she cursed back at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Is it too early to begin applying or searching for summer internships? Been doing some searching but haven't really come across anything regarding applications for this upcoming summer. Trying to gauge all my options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I saw this tonight in Petersham MA. Def one of the nicer sunsets lately in this area. I was coming home but no good spot to safely pull over. Plus I just have my iPhone. Meh pics from a meh photographer Your shot is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1st 10 days of DEC will warm in eastern 2/3. 11-15 Cold begins to bleed east. Big central U.S. trough 15-20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2017 Author Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Hopefully she cursed back at you. Oh she definitely isn't taking any sh*t without a fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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