Early Winter Banter, Observations & General Discussion 2017

[rimetree]

Has that mid-winter feel tonight. 21F and gusty

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah in a relative sense it's modified. 

I don't know what it is with that person he does that frequently. Misses the point then bucks for an adversarial impression of it. 

If we had a deeper more pervasive snowpack in the area and north of the border in Canada during the antecedent negative EPO then we'd have a less modified incursion of arctic air. When the argument is not even relative to be honest

[powderfreak]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's obviously subjective with a little fun....but that is a rarity around here   Just a local climate thing. I remember the best example of what you describe up in the Bartlett area of NH in '94. Pretty sure we hit -25 or colder that night. We went out that morning to feel the cold. No cars started and it hurt to breathe.  That was impressive. 

All our weather preferences are likely shaped by our local climo...and its fun to bust balls and go back and forth.  If you don't radiate anyway, why root for it?  Might as well hope for a windy night.  That way DIT doesn't have to wake up to 20F while TAN/OWD/CEF are in the single digits...places he thinks he should crush for temps but has to listen to the on-air METs talk about how much colder they are on the 6am newscast, lol.

This is the best radiating spot I've ever lived, no surprise living near ALB and then BTV/nearby spots.  It is interesting to see how cold it can get and despite the "fake cold" nomenclature, it seems pretty damn real when your car engine barely turns over.  Or when you are cursing being late to work as you scrape heavy frost at 28F while others are mid/upper 30s and just driving away.  There's something Norman Rockwell about a ski village nestled between ridgelines that are 3,000-4,000ft tall on a clear calm morning...in the winter it means woodsmoke trapped under the inversion, nostrils immediately frozen, freezing fog along the river, etc. 

I will admit the "fake cold" to me should be used not for normal radiational cooling, but for those times when its 10-20F warmer like 700ft overhead.  There's definitely a time when its like, ok this is pretty damn localized.  Like when its 48F in the village in July, while its 63F at the base of the ski resort...yeah that feels cheap.  Its real but not a good representation of the air mass.  That's when it gets "fake."  When the temps really become disconnected from the air mass...typically the back-end of a trough as a return flow high builds in.

[Sugarloaf1989]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

19.8

Way to crush the first freeze 

 

Bitter 10 mile run at 4:45 tomorrow AM

Nite nite 

Welcome to the freeze club.

[Ginx snewx]

22 I mean it's cold but it's not that bad to me. Relatively climo speaking it's definitely unusual but with the wind dieing it feels great. Nice prep for winter. Check out Earthlight, Dsnow and Miguels NYmetrowx winter outlook

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

20/8 outside 70F inside with first wood fire of the season. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Stay safe in the cold everyone, lips could chap! 

[Sugarloaf1989]

39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

22 I mean it's cold but it's not that bad to me. Relatively climo speaking it's definitely unusual but with the wind dieing it feels great. Nice prep for winter. Check out Earthlight, Dsnow and Miguels NYmetrowx winter outlook

 

I'm not sure I buy the 1995-1996 winter was not cold. It's snowed from November to May in New England and NYC broke it's snowfall record.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Well done by them. Big winter has arrived. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

17.4F with wind.   Not radiating cold...(wo)man cold!

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Cape Cod misses their first snow event this Fall as wind direction at the surface of the Earth is too northwesterly.

c

Looking at the sounding below from CHH, winds are out of the Northwesterly direction as well as the picture to the right.  However, the first 5000 feet above the surface of the earth is very moist while from the inversion at 850mb the dry air is located above the inversion.  With a moist few thousand feet from the surface to 850mb, with a cold unstable atmospheric profile and delta ts supporting high instability, there was the potential for an Ocean Effect Snow event with the latest arctic outbreak.  However, wind direction does not appeal ideal for the producing of a long dry air fetch over relatively warm waters of the Cape Cod Bay and Gulf of Maine.  Therefore, what could have been results in a sorry wouldn't want to be ya trend.

 

[nzucker]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know what it is with that person he does that frequently. Misses the point then bucks for an adversarial impression of it. 

If we had a deeper more pervasive snowpack in the area and north of the border in Canada during the antecedent negative EPO then we'd have a less modified incursion of arctic air. When the argument is not even relative to be honest

Canada has one of the highest snow covers for this time of year. November 2017 is one of the highest for global snow cover, and North American snow cover, just as November 2016 was the worst. There is snow from British Columbia to Quebec. As well as across much of the Northern Plains and Intermountain West

I mean you can always say, "Well it's modified because it's not x degrees" and then pick an absurdly low value. Of course it is not -20F in early November, that's not a possible temperature for this time of year. If we set a record low of 45F in mid-July, would you say, "It's modified because it's not 0F and a blinding blizzard?" Of course not!

Modified to me implies moderating arctic air that arrives on westerly winds and comes from Western Canada and then dips down into the Lakes/OH Valley, before finally arriving in weaker form. HYSPLIT analysis shows this airmass is straight from the North Pole. Pure northerly CAA.

To me, record low indicates this is NOT modified.

[Paragon]

11 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Canada has one of the highest snow covers for this time of year. November 2017 is one of the highest for global snow cover, and North American snow cover, just as November 2016 was the worst. There is snow from British Columbia to Quebec. As well as across much of the Northern Plains and Intermountain West

I mean you can always say, "Well it's modified because it's not x degrees" and then pick an absurdly low value. Of course it is not -20F in early November, that's not a possible temperature for this time of year. If we set a record low of 45F in mid-July, would you say, "It's modified because it's not 0F and a blinding blizzard?" Of course not!

Modified to me implies moderating arctic air that arrives on westerly winds and comes from Western Canada and then dips down into the Lakes/OH Valley, before finally arriving in weaker form. HYSPLIT analysis shows this airmass is straight from the North Pole. Pure northerly CAA.

To me, record low indicates this is NOT modified.

I mean we are talking about the earliest that this kind of cold has happened in recorded history.  That says a lot in itself.

 

[nzucker]

12 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I mean we are talking about the earliest that this kind of cold has happened in recorded history.  That says a lot in itself.

 

Yes, this is very extreme cold for early-mid November. Calling it modified is a stretch.

I mean obviously an airmass over Boston won't be as cold as the same airmass over Nunavut, but that's really just climo, not modification.

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, nzucker said:

Yes, this is very extreme cold for early-mid November. Calling it modified is a stretch.

I mean obviously an airmass over Boston won't be as cold as the same airmass over Nunavut, but that's really just climo, not modification.

Yeah, otherwise the records over the NE coastal plain would be in the -50 to -70 realm during the middle of winter.  Not slightly below zero lol.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

All our weather preferences are likely shaped by our local climo...and its fun to bust balls and go back and forth.  If you don't radiate anyway, why root for it?  Might as well hope for a windy night.  That way DIT doesn't have to wake up to 20F while TAN/OWD/CEF are in the single digits...places he thinks he should crush for temps but has to listen to the on-air METs talk about how much colder they are on the 6am newscast, lol.

This is the best radiating spot I've ever lived, no surprise living near ALB and then BTV/nearby spots.  It is interesting to see how cold it can get and despite the "fake cold" nomenclature, it seems pretty damn real when your car engine barely turns over.  Or when you are cursing being late to work as you scrape heavy frost at 28F while others are mid/upper 30s and just driving away.  There's something Norman Rockwell about a ski village nestled between ridgelines that are 3,000-4,000ft tall on a clear calm morning...in the winter it means woodsmoke trapped under the inversion, nostrils immediately frozen, freezing fog along the river, etc. 

I will admit the "fake cold" to me should be used not for normal radiational cooling, but for those times when its 10-20F warmer like 700ft overhead.  There's definitely a time when its like, ok this is pretty damn localized.  Like when its 48F in the village in July, while its 63F at the base of the ski resort...yeah that feels cheap.  Its real but not a good representation of the air mass.  That's when it gets "fake."  When the temps really become disconnected from the air mass...typically the back-end of a trough as a return flow high builds in.

That's what most mean I think. Like when Kevin is 48 and jogging and shorts while they're scraping the windshield at the bottom of his hill. You can just picture how angry he may get as he jogs by and sees this. Break stuff by Limp Bizkit suddenly comes on his IPod and mutters a curse to said person under his breathe as he goes by.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's what most mean I think. Like when Kevin is 48 and jogging and shorts while they're scraping the windshield at the bottom of his hill. You can just picture how angry he may get as he jogs by and sees this. Break stuff by Limp Bizkit suddenly comes on his IPod and mutters a curse to said person under his breathe as he goes by.

Nah that doesn’t bother me. Honestly. Radiation cold is not real , because as soon as sun comes up it’s 65 where they were scraping. This is real cold . Still windy . We run 

[dendrite]

MOS fail. No surprise at all really. 

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That's what most mean I think. Like when Kevin is 48 and jogging and shorts while they're scraping the windshield at the bottom of his hill. You can just picture how angry he may get as he jogs by and sees this. Break stuff by Limp Bizkit suddenly comes on his IPod and mutters a curse to said person under his breathe as he goes by.

I know earlier we were talking about a possible pattern flip back to milder weather for early December.  Problem is long range forecasting is so hit and miss.  Earlier we were talking about the possibility of a record warm November.  Now we're talking about cold.  Also, I heard about the possibility of a mild pattern starting early December.  When I talk to other people about it, they say long range forecasting has zero credibility.  "Weren't they saying it's going to be a warm November and now look what's happened.  I don't believe them when they say it's going to get milder in December, no one knows how to forecast more than a few days ahead, it's a total crapshoot, and I don't believe them," is what they say.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That's what most mean I think. Like when Kevin is 48 and jogging and shorts while they're scraping the windshield at the bottom of his hill. You can just picture how angry he may get as he jogs by and sees this. Break stuff by Limp Bizkit suddenly comes on his IPod and mutters a curse to said person under his breathe as he goes by.

What places are the radiational cooling kings of the northeast?  Meaning the places that are likely to have the coldest temperatures on nights of ideal radiational cooling?  I have FOK, MVY and MJX in my list (Westhampton, Martha's Vineyard and Toms River.)  All are located on the coast.

We're still east of the center of the arctic high as pressures are still increasing here (30.54 and rising.)  But tonight won't be ideal for radiational cooling as clouds will start moving in here around 8 PM but eastern sections of Long Island can still radiate down into the teens, our area will probably stay in the upper 20s though (24 here right now.)

 

[CoastalWx]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MOS fail. No surprise at all really. 

Yep, but AWT. The real radiators mount up tonight. 21 here. That's what I figured. 

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I know earlier we were talking about a possible pattern flip back to milder weather for early December.  Problem is long range forecasting is so hit and miss.  Earlier we were talking about the possibility of a record warm November.  Now we're talking about cold.  Also, I heard about the possibility of a mild pattern starting early December.  When I talk to other people about it, they say long range forecasting has zero credibility.  "Weren't they saying it's going to be a warm November and now look what's happened.  I don't believe them when they say it's going to get milder in December, no one knows how to forecast more than a few days ahead, it's a total crapshoot, and I don't believe them," is what they say.

There is some skill depending on the lead time. I would not say zero credibility. I am not sure where the  mild Novie came from, because based on the earlier ensemble runs..it did not look warm. The seasonal models can be terrible The CFS and euro seasonal certainly have laid an egg before. Heck even the weeklies can struggle. Perhaps that is where some got that idea from. You just have to know what you are looking at and make a call.  For instance I am expecting blocking to go away and perhaps a dateline or -EPO in December. That means we may see a yo-yo in temps that month.  I don't see it as a cold or warmth month for now.

[Damage In Tolland]

15.8 will do it for the low . About 3 degrees warmer than IT

[Paragon]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is some skill depending on the lead time. I would not say zero credibility. I am not sure where the  mild Novie came from, because based on the earlier ensemble runs..it did not look warm. The seasonal models can be terrible The CFS and euro seasonal certainly have laid an egg before. Heck even the weeklies can struggle. Perhaps that is where some got that idea from. You just have to know what you are looking at and make a call.  For instance I am expecting blocking to go away and perhaps a dateline or -EPO in December. That means we may see a yo-yo in temps that month.  I don't see it as a cold or warmth month for now.

I wonder how our winter overall (DJF) will compare to the last couple.  From weak la ninas in my memory some have been mild, others have been cold, pretty much 50/50 for the last 8.  Snowfall of course is very variable.  Wildcard is all the snowcover up north, much more of that than the last few winters.  But of course that can change on a dime with an outbreak of mild air.

People were touting the CFS and saying +8 for November lol.

An EPO driven pattern reminds me of what we had in the earlier part of the decade.  Lots of back and forth and snowfall highly dependent on timing of the cold shots.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Record low at BOS for both yesterday and today. This is only the 6th time record lows at Logan airport have been recorded in the month of November. All other November record lows are at the old site before they moved to Logan airport. No surprise since November and December are probably the months where the SSTs influence the lows the most in the warm direction. 

 

[Yukon Cornelius]

16.5F - Nice refreshing jolt to the system walking outside this morning. 

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

15.8 will do it for the low . About 3 degrees warmer than IT

Wow....only 17F at ORH. I noticed you whipped out the Davis numbers over the past 24hrs.

[alex]

13.5F here with light snow. A little refresher overnight, but no radiational cooling since it’s been cloudy and snowy all night

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

15.8 will do it for the low . About 3 degrees warmer than IT

15 for you AWT. Well 16. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

15 for you AWT. Well 16. 

Nice call Scoots. We tip the cap