CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 I'm enjoying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm enjoying it. What are you doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 39F but climbing quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What are you doing? Just came back from the gym, arm hanging out the window, your body is a wonderland . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just came back from the gym, arm hanging out the window, your body is a wonderland . Co-ed tossing frisbees on campus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 54 minutes ago, CT Rain said: This write up from Bob Henson makes a lot more sense and seems like a much more accurate version - https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/new-study-larger-more-intense-us-storm-complexes-way?__prclt=RPx0M8fN This is a more scientific way of looking at it, vs what the previous author said. I don't think it's necessarily updrafts becoming huge and swallowing entire counties..rather than heavier rates and probably larger areas of stratiform rainfall. Of course storm motion probably matters the most in all of this. The public consumes all of this, and I think the community needs to be careful of how they communicate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Co-ed tossing frisbees on campus? Thoughts in front of Fox hall....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 GFS, welcome to the party tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Welcome to the Euro 4 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Welcome to the Euro 4 days ago If this were a month later, it would be quite the wx conundrum. Probably still rain to start, but flip to ice and snow at the end during the morning. No bueno performance by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If this were a month later, it would be quite the wx conundrum. Probably still rain to start, but flip to ice and snow at the end during the morning. No bueno performance by the GFS. Yeah, Air mass out ahead is to warm and precip is gone when the CF comes thru, Backside stuff typically doesn't work out up here anyways, We watch, We wait, Going to be a long winter season if this is what we have for a performing GFS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Does Groton, MA count as SNE or CNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Enjoy 50 today and 55 Saturday That's probably more normal than a day like yesterday when the high temp was lower than the average minimum. This morning's low was 16F, about -10 departure. Average here today is 43F for a high...its not supposed to have highs of 24F. As good as it feels to step right into winter, its just not how it goes. Its still only November 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 4 hours ago, dendrite said: AGW is real, but those hype studies always make me laugh. 80% more rain? lawl...maybe once palm trees start becoming native to NH again. I like this part: the total amount of rain in the U.S. South is projected to jump 80 percent between now and the end of the century who is going to be around to verify that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 43 minutes ago, CoolMike said: Does Groton, MA count as SNE or CNE? It's subjective. I feel like most of MA north of a PSF-ORH-LWM line is more like the sensible wx of southern NH than most of CT/RI and the rest of MA...but again, it's all really subjective. I personally just use CNE as a term to imply the interior of New England roughly north of the pike but south of the far northern areas like the White Mts over to northern Greens...basically stating that I am including some reasonable populations centers and not only talking about the northern mountains or Maine north of PWM. The exact location can shift form event to event...but usually I specify roads as boundaries rather than using generic subjective terms like "CNE" once an event is close enough to be more precise (I.E. north of rt 2 or N of the NH border or N of the pike). If further out, that is when I might say "oh that day 4-5 threat looks pretty interesting for CNE"....details can be hashed out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 57F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's subjective. I feel like most of MA north of a PSF-ORH-LWM line is more like the sensible wx of southern NH than most of CT/RI and the rest of MA...but again, it's all really subjective. I personally just use CNE as a term to imply the interior of New England roughly north of the pike but south of the far northern areas like the White Mts over to northern Greens...basically stating that I am including some reasonable populations centers and not only talking about the northern mountains or Maine north of PWM. The exact location can shift form event to event...but usually I specify roads as boundaries rather than using generic subjective terms like "CNE" once an event is close enough to be more precise (I.E. north of rt 2 or N of the NH border or N of the pike). If further out, that is when I might say "oh that day 4-5 threat looks pretty interesting for CNE"....details can be hashed out later. Perfect description... I also look at CNE as interior New England from like Pike up to Lakes Region latitude. And it does change a bit depending on the event. It's just an easier way to describe events as NNE and SNE can both mean many different spots. I think of like the MA/NH/VT border areas as the epicenter of CNE, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 57 F here in central interior SNE or wherever the heck I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 56 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: I like this part: who is going to be around to verify that? Me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, "covering an entire city instead of half of it." What the hell does that even mean? These people who know nothing about operational meteorology are studying computer models, taking it 100% and then throwing out this stuff. Go back and read the tree rings. I believe in AGW, but some of this stuff doesn't even make sense meteorologically. +1. I assume the bolded was intended as snark, but it reminds me of my issues concerning use of dendrochronology to support AGW hypotheses. Except where trees are at the extreme edges of their ranges, temp change exerts a teeny tiny effect on diameter growth compared to growing season precip. And since the hottest days in a warming climate are apt to often be in droughty stretches (less clouds, less water vapor to heat), temps and moisture would be working at odds with each other. Tree ring analysis is much more useful in identifying past droughts. Looks like a fairly calm short-medium stretch ahead, with some rollercoaster temps averaging out near normal. I'm -3.2 so far this month, +8.0 for 1-6, then -7.2 since then, with only this past Sunday AN since 11/6. Will need to approach 50 this afternoon to finish the day AN; my avg is 41/23, and it was 18 at 9 PM obs time last evening, under the stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, tamarack said: I'm -3.2 so far this month, +8.0 for 1-6, then -7.2 since then, with only this past Sunday AN since 11/6. Will need to approach 50 this afternoon to finish the day AN; my avg is 41/23, and it was 18 at 9 PM obs time last evening, under the stars. So far shaping up to be a frigid November relative to normal. I forget how high climo still is so these days like 27/19, 33/13, 27/13 are way down at like -15. MVL currently -4.5, MPV is -3.9, 1V4 is -3.7. MVL definitely has taken advantage of rad cooling and low level inversions a bit better in these cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 This is going to be hilarious if/when today's "torch" comes in below normal for the day. Normal is 43/26. So far today we are 49/16 for a -3. We took full advantage of fresh, cold, fluffy snow cover and radiational cooling last night to get to 16F this morning and now it's T-shirt weather. But not sure we can over come the -10 departure on the minimum. Its funny how small things like yesterday's snow can impact the overnight temps so much that a torch day is struggling to get to even normal. But that's how you run a -4.5 November to date. Make torches less great again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Kevin is already freaking about a long "torch" next week. He seems to have some inside info that every weather site from the NWS to Accuweather can't seem to see. Is this the first sign of a fly in the ointment? a catastrophic turn back toward the Permian conditions of October? stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It's subjective. I feel like most of MA north of a PSF-ORH-LWM line is more like the sensible wx of southern NH than most of CT/RI and the rest of MA...but again, it's all really subjective. I personally just use CNE as a term to imply the interior of New England roughly north of the pike but south of the far northern areas like the White Mts over to northern Greens...basically stating that I am including some reasonable populations centers and not only talking about the northern mountains or Maine north of PWM. The exact location can shift form event to event...but usually I specify roads as boundaries rather than using generic subjective terms like "CNE" once an event is close enough to be more precise (I.E. north of rt 2 or N of the NH border or N of the pike). If further out, that is when I might say "oh that day 4-5 threat looks pretty interesting for CNE"....details can be hashed out later. This makes sense, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 34 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Kevin is already freaking about a long "torch" next week. He seems to have some inside info that every weather site from the NWS to Accuweather can't seem to see. Is this the first sign of a fly in the ointment? a catastrophic turn back toward the Permian conditions of October? stay tuned. Latest couple Euro runs do seem to have backed off of the cold a bit over the next 10 days. Not saying panic mode by any means but it does seem to show more of a zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Not the prettiest of looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Not the prettiest of looks What does the Euro Ensembles say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Still waiting on those to load Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Still waiting on those to load Oh cool, I find it strange the Euro at the end of the 10 day backs away from the cold. Knowing that their is blocking -NAO there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Not the prettiest of looks Euro bias alert. Not saying that’s it but it certainly can be effecting the amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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