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Early Winter Banter, Observations & General Discussion 2017


powderfreak

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32 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Far higher than any I've ever seen.  And in my experience, "hogwash" is too kind.  Highest nest I saw in our 10 years up north was followed by the most open of our winters there.  Next year I was seeing nests knee-high or lower, and then my 61" snow stake got overtopped.

On other subjects - low of 12 yesterday before the clouds rolled in, but the clouds did less "damage" this morning, as it was a degree or two lower than yesterday's minimum despite nearly full overcast at 6:45.

Haha yeah all those natural old wives tales are pure voodoo.  Almost like we only notice them when they show us what we want to see.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha yeah all those natural old wives tales are pure voodoo.  Almost like we only notice them when they show us what we want to see.

Confirmation bias...it happens all the time in weather and it other areas of interest (sports, other sciences, etc). We ignore the same evidence when it shows the opposite of what we want.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Haha yeah all those natural old wives tales are pure voodoo.  Almost like we only notice them when they show us what we want to see.

Some have some science behind them though if you think about it. The old swamp yankees always told me that cold wouldn't take hold until rivers were bank full. Over the years that has worked out very well but of course not 100%. Well what's the science behind that? Dry bare grounds tend to keep temps up, wet saturated soils temps are lower. So if the banks are full the soil is saturated and cooler temps prevail. It also tends to mean a persistent lower pressure has been in the area filling those banks so naturally cooler temps. May not be exact science but it seems to work. When you lived off the land and had no computers you found associations to forecast with. 

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some have some science behind them though if you think about it. The old swamp yankees always told me that cold wouldn't take hold until rivers were bank full. Over the years that has worked out very well but of course not 100%. Well what's the science behind that? Dry bare grounds tend to keep temps up, wet saturated soils temps are lower. So if the banks are full the soil is saturated and cooler temps prevail. It also tends to mean a persistent lower pressure has been in the area filling those banks so naturally cooler temps. May not be exact science but it seems to work. When you lived off the land and had no computers you found associations to forecast with. 

I always think of you in relation to this one.  We had been so dry this fall until those two storms and now the rivers are full, the cold has come.

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2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I always think of you in relation to this one.  We had been so dry this fall until those two storms and now the rivers are full, the cold has come.

That could be something to it too. You need a stem winder to get the cold in, and that usually brings a nice tropical moisture plume just ahead of it.

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bit of an interesting mesoscale thing around here. Had to shoot down to Marshfield and it was definitely warmer there. I see it's near 50. 41 here and slowly falling at home.

Definitely a little bit of an in-situ coastal front set up from Downeast to SE MA.

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40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It could also be that you get into a stormier pattern in the Fall when the jet starts to amplify and drop south. The cold usually follows.

November is the wettest month of the year for both BOS and PWM, probably for a lot of other sites in the eastern half of New England where coastals dump the most.  The old saying may just be good observation.

A few flakes drifting down outside the Augusta office.

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