2017/2018 New England Cities Snowfall Predictions

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wild azz guess. I think the interior will do well compared to coast, but coast will be ok. We are sort of due for a light 00-01. If I had to guess the error..it would be coast doing better. 

 

 

ORH 75

BOS 50

PVD 38

BDL 48

BDR 26

PSF 84

ALB 70

BTV 90

CON 85

PORTLAND 90

CAR 130

KGNX 50

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 60      KDIT 65

 Like this

 

Wow I inspired these two to come out of the closet.  Lol of course we all know snowfall prediction is a crapshoot but I think we are beginning to see a consensus of a gradient winter favoring NNE is on most minds. For once let's do a big Dec

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

ORH 58

BOS 39

PVD 29

BDL 35

BDR 22

PSF 95

ALB 75

BVT 115

CON 76

PORTLAND 99

CAR 118

KGNX 33

TAN 30

Yeah I don't think so based on your other numbers... doubt that has ever happened before with those BTV numbers compared to SNE.

That would be an insane gradient all season long.  That's like months worth of storms where BDL rains and BTV snows.  Haha, not going to lie but seems like a defense mechanism forecast.  Sort of like if someone in NNE forecast BDL to BOS to receive more snowfall.  I don't think anyone would seriously make a forecast that lopsided.

[CT Valley Snowman]

ORH     86

PSF      90

BDL      69

BDR      41

GON     43

BOS      66

PVD      52

ALB      82

TAN     52

BTV     95

CON    86

PWM   92

AUG    95

CAR    98

Honestly feels like just a somewhat educated guess not exactly high confidence but I'll throw some numbers out.  

Ray  75,  Kevin  78 close but DIT's elevation put's him just a bit over the edge.  

Solid winter regionwide  best  interior with the usual elevation and latitude/longitude gradients

Strong Start and Finish 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I don't think so based on your other numbers... doubt that has ever happened before with those BTV numbers compared to SNE.

That would be an insane gradient all season long.  That's like months worth of storms where BDL rains and BTV snows.  Haha, not going to lie but seems like a defense mechanism forecast.  Sort of like if someone in NNE forecast BDL to BOS to receive more snowfall.  I don't think anyone would seriously make a forecast that lopsided.

I forgot to add into my forecast (I actually seriously forgot...I was going to add him):

Tauntonblizzard: 36....His area does get a pure SE MA special jackpot storm in January during peak cold climo. A storm that he will refer to as "absolute garbage" on the models 36 hours before the onset. 

 

And a couple more:

 

JamesNichols: 28....Gets a cape cod special in late January before the pattern flips. Forecasts 30-36" for the storm based on the 3km NAM and gets 11". 

 

Snowman21: 22....gets a -4 January but complains it wasn't as cold as January 1994. Then has a meltdown about the February torch. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We've been lucky recently...esp in SNE...so I'm going to make my guesses based on we get a little unlucky in SNE this year despite a half-decent pattern...NNE will get a huge storm they've been craving later in the winter where SNE gets skunked...powderfreak will not be able to contain his glee as BOS-ORH-PSM-TOL-HFD are all cold rain and he's posting pics of 20" of high QPF snow. I do think December will be solid for all and we finally get a "clean" white Christmas for most of the region. February turns to garbage until later in the month. This is completely for entertainment only as I honestly don't think there is much skill in predicting our snowfall in this type of weak ENSO regime

 

Anyway, here it is:

ORH 61

BOS 40

PVD 34

BDL 44

BDR 22

PSF 69

ALB 57

BVT 87

CON 66

PORTLAND 72

CAR 139

KGNX 51

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 54.0      KDIT 53.5....epic battle that comes down to the end, but Ray barely holds on after building a big lead in December and survives a late season comeback and some unorthodox measuring by Kevin.

 

A few more for fun:

Lavarock: Bitches his way to 93"....almost causes Oceanstwx to delete his account during one high impact storm.

Tamarack: 109...posts about how good the snowpack is in January but then gets disappointed during the February La Nina thaw that he won't challenge his modern day non-Fort Kent record of 49 inches....then almost makes a come back with the late February NNE blockbuster, but too much settling in the week after before the next event keeps the record elusive for another year. Posts musings about March 1984.

Powderfreak: 128...town, not ski resort...but there will plenty of upslope events where he's posting pics of the ski resort to himself 5 or 6 times before anyone else responds.

Dendrite: 86...gets a bit grumpy during the later season NNE blockbuster as he's on the line and gets a lot of taint while wxeyeNH gets buried. He pretends that he's happy because it will be easier on his chickens, but he's secretly enraged and then logs off for a few hours when Eek posts that he got more snow than him.

KScooter: 41...has a mild meltdown during December advisory event where he gets marine taint...but then makes it up a week later with a 12/20/08-style CJ

New guy from North Carolina: 73....he will be like aviationDave when he moved from VA to NH for a few winters...thinking even a crappy winter was amazing in 2006-2007...except this will be slightly above average so it will be like the winter apocalypse to him. It will be like an entire 4 months straight of February 2015 in Boston to him.

Moneypitmike: 75....finally beats ORH for the first time in almost a decade. But still has at least 2 epic meltdowns over QPF...one of them in a storm he ends up jackpotting in when the mesoband sets up right over him.

AccordionManCory: 42....includes an absolutely epic rant over a storm that wasn't really forecasted to jackpot him anyway. But he does get a legit 4" per hour snowfall this year and posts a video ripping out a few tunes in the middle of it.

Kwxfella: 46...makes 137 references to either 1970-1971 or 1993-1994 during the good gradient pattern in December...with 65 of them occurring at the Boston December GTG as we are tracking a snow event, then turns on the winter violently in February during the long thaw and says this winter should never be mentioned in the same sentences as those ones. He does get a marginal advisory event late in the year where his extra 100 feet of elevation pays dividends vs the rest of Boston.

WxmanMitch: 145.....finally lives in the weenie plot up near Woodford, VT. The first year doesn't disappoint. He gets enough spillover from upslope to juice his totals, but still does well on any system with an easterly flow component.

 

 

Unorthodox measuring

[WxBlue]

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

New guy from North Carolina: 73....he will be like aviationDave when he moved from VA to NH for a few winters...thinking even a crappy winter was amazing in 2006-2007...except this will be slightly above average so it will be like the winter apocalypse to him. It will be like an entire 4 months straight of February 2015 in Boston to him.

 

 

LOL you're not wrong there. My highest annual snowfall total is currently ~25" from when I lived near KSTL.

Even the worst winter scenario here will make me happy this year

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

My pics, feel free to toss yours up here

ORH 80

BOS 57

PVD 42

BDL 70

BDR 26

PSF 100

ALB 77

BVT 120

CON 95

PORTLAND 115

CAR 127

KGNX 59

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 73      KDIT 73.5

You're going '07-'08 like....not sure la nina gets strong enough for that.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I forgot to add into my forecast (I actually seriously forgot...I was going to add him):

Tauntonblizzard: 36....His area does get a pure SE MA special jackpot storm in January during peak cold climo. A storm that he will refer to as "absolute garbage" on the models 36 hours before the onset. 

 

And a couple more:

 

JamesNichols: 28....Gets a cape cod special in late January before the pattern flips. Forecasts 30-36" for the storm based on the 3km NAM and gets 11". 

 

Snowman21: 22....gets a -4 January but complains it wasn't as cold as January 1994. Then has a meltdown about the February torch. 

 

 

 oh man .... that was a good laugh. I can actually picture myself typing those exact words already.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I don't think so based on your other numbers... doubt that has ever happened before with those BTV numbers compared to SNE.

That would be an insane gradient all season long.  That's like months worth of storms where BDL rains and BTV snows.  Haha, not going to lie but seems like a defense mechanism forecast.  Sort of like if someone in NNE forecast BDL to BOS to receive more snowfall.  I don't think anyone would seriously make a forecast that lopsided.

Probably a little extreme... with a slight touch of defense mechanisms. My point overall is serious though.

 

tight gradient.... big NNE winter.... dicey down here.

Like Scott... my bust if I had to guess would be a little bit more here 

[Lava Rock]

Can we assume some type of grinch storm this year?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You're going '07-'08 like....not sure la nina gets strong enough for that.

i guess if I only used Nina that year would be close in some areas,. Thanks Jeffafa

[Ginx snewx]

I will compile these into one post when everyone has chimed in, MIA is DIT

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You're going '07-'08 like....not sure la nina gets strong enough for that.

Have to respond again I don't think my numbers look like this from Wills map, Will where is your 10/11 map, couldn't find it

[dendrite]

I'll play later too. I am leaning heavy on my -EBI this year. (emotional bias index)

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'll play later too. I am leaning heavy on my -EBI this year. (emotional bias index)

I guess my numbers, in black are close to 07/08 for you guys but think gradient is further south down here due to some NAO help and a big coastal, favoring coastals over overrunning like 07/08 had, just a warmer back ground and a bunch of other analog years. 

[dryslot]

Your welcome Steve, I'll bite as soon as i'm done compiling.

[ORH_wxman]

Ginxy, I think I've lost my 2010-2011 map...tragically. I was actually looking through my folders the other day and could not find it. Not sure what happened. Hopefully someone here maybe saved it at one point and can repost it. I'll keep looking for it.

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ginxy, I think I've lost my 2010-2011 map...tragically. I was actually looking through my folders the other day and could not find it. Not sure what happened. Hopefully someone here maybe saved it at one point and can repost it. I'll keep looking for it.

thanks Will, hey you mods why does this site sign us off on all devices all the time? Pickles also texted me about it

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

thanks Will, hey you mods why does this site sign us off on all devices all the time? Pickles also texted me about it

Never happens to me.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I even looked in the whole thread about 2010-2011 map that Will had running in April of 2011    It looks like it is gone 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I even looked in the whole thread about 2010-2011 map that Will had running in April of 2011    It looks like it is gone 

Oh yeah, I had already checked that. But the links are dead now. Wish I had uploaded it to this site. I'm pretty sure someone out there saved it down...hopefully they can repost it whenever they see this...though we have a lot of posters that don't really come on here until winter starts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I will compile these into one post when everyone has chimed in, MIA is DIT

I didn't mean to be critical....sorry if it came off like that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe you mean more like '08-'09, Steve?

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha!  When I first read Will's post (which is pure awesomeness) I was thinking I would've added a line that says, "J.Spin gets 179 inches of snow to fall from the sky with measurable snow falling on 87% of the days this winter from every passing cloud, which causes Dendrite to comment on the snowpack and is followed by paragraphs from Tamarack about snow depth days."

I also think Alex in Bretton Woods on the NW slope gets similar snowfall to J.Spin in terms of actual inches that fall from the sky but also has Gene/Wxeye wondering about snow depths.

First Will and then you.    I'm thinking I should remember the Miranda warning, "Anything you say can and will be used against you."   It's good for an all-day chuckle.

 

LOL you're not wrong there. My highest annual snowfall total is currently ~25" from when I lived near KSTL.

Even the worst winter scenario here will make me happy this year

Be careful what you wish for.  When we moved to BGR (Jan. 23, 1973, just missing the city's snowiest Dec on record, of course) we had a nice powder storm of 7-8" the next week.  It wasn't until the 8.6" on April 9-10/1974 that we got another all-snow event larger than 4.5", and until mid-Dec of 1975 before a met winter (Maine version - DJFM) event over 10".  Not the Maine snowfest we expected.

After moving to Fort Kent on 1/1/1976 it was over 12 months before we saw a storm larger than 8.2", pretty puny by northern Aroostook standards.  (Disclosure: The town had two storms totaling 36" between Christmas and New Years in 1976.  Dec 26-27 brought 24" while we were in NNJ visiting family.  3 days later came another 12" as we drove north.  We hit snowy roads in Sturbridge, falling snow about 10 miles into Maine, SN+ from PWM to PQI - driving thru the night, what fun - with flakes stopping when we were about 20 miles from home.  We did get to see an amazing ground blizzard as the backside gales picked up perhaps 5 minutes after we reached the apartment.)

Based mainly on others' expertise, I see a slightly AN winter here (my 19-yr avg is 89") with a somewhat greater gradient than average but nothing like 2007-08.

ORH     72
BOS      46
PVD      36
BDL      52
BDR      30
PSF       85
ALB       65
BTV      85
CON      67
PWM     70
CAR     125
GNX      49
RAY      57
DIT       57
Dryslot   94
LavaRock   92
MBY      98  Would be 1st time in 4 winters that I had more than both of the above Mainiacs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Stunning...a post from tamarack on snowfall in remote northern Maine villages on random days during the early 1970's.

Didn't see that one coming..

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, tamarack said:

First Will and then you.    I'm thinking I should remember the Miranda warning, "Anything you say can and will be used against you."   It's good for an all-day chuckle.

 

LOL you're not wrong there. My highest annual snowfall total is currently ~25" from when I lived near KSTL.

Even the worst winter scenario here will make me happy this year

Be careful what you wish for.  When we moved to BGR (Jan. 23, 1973, just missing the city's snowiest Dec on record, of course) we had a nice powder storm of 7-8" the next week.  It wasn't until the 8.6" on April 9-10/1974 that we got another all-snow event larger than 4.5", and until mid-Dec of 1975 before a met winter (Maine version - DJFM) event over 10".  Not the Maine snowfest we expected.

After moving to Fort Kent on 1/1/1976 it was over 12 months before we saw a storm larger than 8.2", pretty puny by northern Aroostook standards.  (Disclosure: The town had two storms totaling 36" between Christmas and New Years in 1976.  Dec 26-27 brought 24" while we were in NNJ visiting family.  3 days later came another 12" as we drove north.  We hit snowy roads in Sturbridge, falling snow about 10 miles into Maine, SN+ from PWM to PQI - driving thru the night, what fun - with flakes stopping when we were about 20 miles from home.  We did get to see an amazing ground blizzard as the backside gales picked up perhaps 5 minutes after we reached the apartment.)

Based mainly on others' expertise, I see a slightly AN winter here (my 19-yr avg is 89") with a somewhat greater gradient than average but nothing like 2007-08.

ORH     72
BOS      46
PVD      36
BDL      52
BDR      30
PSF       85
ALB       65
BTV      85
CON      67
PWM     70
CAR     125
GNX      49
RAY      57
DIT       57
Dryslot   94
LavaRock   92
MBY      98  Would be 1st time in 4 winters that I had more than both of the above Mainiacs.

 

Dec 29, 1976 was a big storm for eastern MA...esp in a band from near PVD up through NE MA...right on the immediate coast got a little less. Ray's hood had about 18-19". The 12/26/76 event was smaller but still 4-6" down here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Dec 29, 1976 was a big storm for eastern MA...esp in a band from near PVD up through NE MA...right on the immediate coast got a little less. Ray's hood had about 18-19". The 12/26/76 event was smaller but still 4-6" down here.

There was an event like that in December 1981, too.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't mean to be critical....sorry if it came off like that.

I did not even think of it as critical rather a good assumption, I used some mix and match with some years but also used some intuition about NAO, back ground warmth, solar etc. Looking at 08/9 that does match up but honestly didn't even look at 08/09

[tamarack]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Stunning...a post from tamarack on snowfall in remote northern Maine villages on random days during the early 1970's.

Didn't see that one coming..

Small though it is next to SNE metros, folks in BGR might take umbrage at it being called a remote village.    
(Ft. Kent - well, I can't argue.)

The 12/26/76 event was smaller but still 4-6" down here.

Had 4" in New Jersey Christmas night, and folks were saying we'd brought the snow down from Maine.

[SJonesWX]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Stunning...a post from tamarack on snowfall in remote northern Maine villages on random days during the early 1970's.

Didn't see that one coming..

followed up by Will "photographic memory" ORH with precise storm totals from the very same northern Maine villages, as well as your hood. awesomeness.