Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

[nrgjeff]

I like it for people north of I-40. I love it above 2,000 FT.

Model madness looks exacerbated by disagreement on the pivot point. Regardless looks like NC/VA/WV gets it good. More digging would set up TRI on this side of the Apps. Then we have the Kentucky TROWAL, a track not yet set in stone. Upper Plateau could get clipped if the TROWAL tracks south of current consensus, and it's possible. Narrow road for Nashville still exists too. 

Barring a south jump CHA-TYS faces warm nose issues. BNA could pull off a miracle iff the TROWAL tracks well south. Ditto for Upper Plateau, but it enjoys more elevation which would help. Good luck John! I like TRI the most in Tenn. East Kentucky and Virginia, along with NC Highcountry look great.

Congratulations @uncheelfan settling the split with Duke. Our Banter thread is basically college basketball right now. Feel free to jump in there too!

[jaxjagman]

Not a big fan for BNA,the upper low would have to over perform and be further south.Already looking at the thermals this afternoon and they are way off,we shouldn't be near mid 60's

 

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z MAR10   * - APPROXIMATED
                 SFC     SFC     2 M     SFC     SFC     SFC     3/6    TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    PCP     HR     CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 12Z 10-MAR                  47.5    42.1    18005                           
SAT 15Z 10-MAR  52.2    47.4    52.1    48.5    21005           0.00      99    
SAT 18Z 10-MAR  57.3    47.4    57.0    52.1    21003           0.01      99    
SAT 21Z 10-MAR  57.7    56.4    57.3    52.4    16002     RA    0.01     100    
SUN 00Z 11-MAR  57.7    53.1    53.1    50.3    08004     RA    0.02     100    
SUN 03Z 11-MAR  52.8    50.2    50.3    48.5    10004           0.00      96    
SUN 06Z 11-MAR  52.8    49.1    49.2    47.4    07004           0.00      98    
SUN 09Z 11-MAR  49.2    48.1    48.1    46.5    07005     RA    0.02      99    
SUN 12Z 11-MAR  49.3    47.6    47.7    45.9    08005     RA    0.04     100    
SUN 15Z 11-MAR  50.2    47.5    50.2    48.8    05006           0.00      98    
SUN 18Z 11-MAR  59.2    47.5    59.2    56.3    07006           0.00      97    
SUN 21Z 11-MAR  60.8    58.8    59.7    52.9    08005           0.01      99    
MON 00Z 12-MAR  60.8    47.6    47.6    44.6    32016     RA    0.37      97    
MON 03Z 12-MAR  47.1    40.2    40.2    35.7    35011     RA    0.03      85    
MON 06Z 12-MAR  47.1    37.0    37.0    33.3    35014     SN    0.07      92    
MON 09Z 12-MAR  37.0    34.9    34.9    30.4    35013     SN    0.02      98    
MON 12Z 12-MAR  37.0    32.4    32.4    25.9    34011     SN    0.02      78   

 

 

[uncheelfan]

I just have a gut feeling that we will be dealing with temp issues here at TRI. It always seems that way around here in the valley. It could be raining buckets here but 20 minutes down the road from me and would be pouring buckets of snow. The Eastman bubble maybe??? Lol!!!!

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[Carvers Gap]

Just now, uncheelfan said:

I just have a gut feeling that we will be dealing with temp issues here at TRI. It always seems that way around here in the valley. It could be raining buckets here but 20 minutes down the road from me and would be pouring buckets of snow. The Eastman bubble maybe??? Lol!!!!

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Need this to be at night.  I "think" MRX mentioned in their morning disco that this rolls in Sunday night and early Monday AM.  Daytime is a "no go" in my book.  Having just looked at the 12z Euro it is northwest of its 0z run which is an important trend there.  It does not trend quickly, but its trends do matter.  Seemed a bit quicker unless I have my toggle memory backwards.  Overall, good trends if we want to score a surprise...but I think we need to see 0z to see if this was a blip or a trend.  Yeah, the bubble is real.  However, I think it has much more to do with how we are situated in the Valley.  I lived in JC for a few years, and upslope is definitely better there.  We get a rain shadow w northwest flow events here.  Now, what we need on this side of the Valley is flow that backs over the mountains to our East and then we get upslope.  That is why we often do better w Miller A events and not so much w northwest flow.  The northwest flow events do really well from Rock Springs all of the way to the spine of the Apps.  But it certainly has a weird appearance to drive up over the hill at the rest stop and see snow in my rearview mirror and brown in front.  Bays Mountain does some crazy stuff w systems that approach from my SW...washes them out thankfully during severe season, but enhances them if they are more like derechos that approach from the northwest.

[Carvers Gap]

32 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Not a big fan for BNA,the upper low would have to over perform and be further south.Already looking at the thermals this afternoon and they are way off,we shouldn't be near mid 60's

 

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z MAR10   * - APPROXIMATED
                 SFC     SFC     2 M     SFC     SFC     SFC     3/6    TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    PCP     HR     CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 12Z 10-MAR                  47.5    42.1    18005                           
SAT 15Z 10-MAR  52.2    47.4    52.1    48.5    21005           0.00      99    
SAT 18Z 10-MAR  57.3    47.4    57.0    52.1    21003           0.01      99    
SAT 21Z 10-MAR  57.7    56.4    57.3    52.4    16002     RA    0.01     100    
SUN 00Z 11-MAR  57.7    53.1    53.1    50.3    08004     RA    0.02     100    
SUN 03Z 11-MAR  52.8    50.2    50.3    48.5    10004           0.00      96    
SUN 06Z 11-MAR  52.8    49.1    49.2    47.4    07004           0.00      98    
SUN 09Z 11-MAR  49.2    48.1    48.1    46.5    07005     RA    0.02      99    
SUN 12Z 11-MAR  49.3    47.6    47.7    45.9    08005     RA    0.04     100    
SUN 15Z 11-MAR  50.2    47.5    50.2    48.8    05006           0.00      98    
SUN 18Z 11-MAR  59.2    47.5    59.2    56.3    07006           0.00      97    
SUN 21Z 11-MAR  60.8    58.8    59.7    52.9    08005           0.01      99    
MON 00Z 12-MAR  60.8    47.6    47.6    44.6    32016     RA    0.37      97    
MON 03Z 12-MAR  47.1    40.2    40.2    35.7    35011     RA    0.03      85    
MON 06Z 12-MAR  47.1    37.0    37.0    33.3    35014     SN    0.07      92    
MON 09Z 12-MAR  37.0    34.9    34.9    30.4    35013     SN    0.02      98    
MON 12Z 12-MAR  37.0    32.4    32.4    25.9    34011     SN    0.02      78   

 

 

That is still a crazy printout.  In 12 hours you go from 61F to snow and 37F.  That is like being out West.  Yeah, 61 won't cut it, man.  LOL.  I agree.

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is still a crazy printout.  In 12 hours you go from 61F to snow and 37F.  That is like being out West.  Yeah, 61 won't cut it, man.  LOL.  I agree.

Right,this isn't winter time.It's tougher as you well know to beat the heights down in March unless you have some significant system that does this

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Right,this isn't winter time.It's tougher as you well know to beat the heights down in March unless you have some significant system that does this

Yep....has to be at night and/or the storm needs to be really wound up to overcome sun angle and amount of daylight that increases warming.   That is why the 12z suite is a bit more encouraging.  

[jaxjagman]

20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep....has to be at night and/or the storm needs to be really wound up to overcome sun angle and amount of daylight that increases warming.   That is why the 12z suite is a bit more encouraging.  

The thermals are much better to the east and possibly colder.Just looking at the last OBS for TYS(Knoxville) it's 52F at noon.Good luck to you guys.

FS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z MAR10   * - APPROXIMATED
                 SFC     SFC     2 M     SFC     SFC     SFC    6 HR    TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    PCP     QPF    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 12Z 10-MAR                  47.5    42.1    18005                           
SAT 18Z 10-MAR  57.3    47.4    57.0    52.1    21003           0.01      99    
SUN 00Z 11-MAR  57.7    53.1    53.1    50.3    08004     RA    0.02     100    
SUN 06Z 11-MAR  52.8    49.1    49.2    47.4    07004           0.00      98    
SUN 12Z 11-MAR  49.3    47.6    47.7    45.9    08005     RA    0.04     100    
SUN 18Z 11-MAR  59.2    47.5    59.2    56.3    07006           0.00      97    
MON 00Z 12-MAR  60.8    47.6    47.6    44.6    32016     RA    0.37      97    
MON 06Z 12-MAR  47.1    37.0    37.0    33.3    35014     SN    0.07      92    
MON 12Z 12-MAR  37.0    32.4    32.4    25.9    34011     SN    0.02      78    
MON 18Z 12-MAR  44.8    32.0    44.8    34.6    34011           0.00       2   

 

Opps,was looking at BNA again.Still pissed off at Auburn losing to Alabama,that's what i'll blame it on..lol.You guys are about +3 above today

 

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            12Z MAR10   * - APPROXIMATED
                 SFC     SFC     2 M     SFC     SFC     SFC    6 HR    TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    PCP     QPF    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 12Z 10-MAR                  40.3    33.7    20004                           
SAT 18Z 10-MAR  49.0    40.0    49.0    45.9    21005     RA    0.15     100    
SUN 00Z 11-MAR  52.2    47.5    47.7    44.1    14001           0.00      99    
SUN 06Z 11-MAR  47.8    44.4    44.4    42.2    07002           0.01     100    
SUN 12Z 11-MAR  45.5    43.7    44.9    43.0    05004     RA    0.04      99    
SUN 18Z 11-MAR  54.8    44.9    54.6    50.0    01003     RA    0.03     100    
MON 00Z 12-MAR  58.2    51.9    52.0    48.7    09004     RA    0.07     100    
MON 06Z 12-MAR  51.9    49.1    49.8    48.5    22006     RA    0.23     100    
MON 12Z 12-MAR  50.0    34.3    34.4    31.8    32008     SN    0.10     100    
MON 18Z 12-MAR  38.4    33.2    38.4    33.1    34007     SN    0.05      98    
TUE 00Z 13-MAR  44.5    36.5    36.7    27.4    32005           0.00      15    
TUE 06Z 13-MAR  37.8    34.4    34.6    27.1    32007     SN    0.01      86    
TUE 12Z 13-MAR  34.1    26.8    26.9    23.2    32001           0.00      10    
TUE 18Z 13-MAR  42.9    27.1    42.8    26.5    31005           0.00      31    
WED 00Z 14-MAR  43.6    35.4    35.5    23.7    32006           0.00      73    
WED 06Z 14-MAR  35.4    28.9    29.2    23.8    28003     SN    0.01      72    
WED 12Z 14-MAR  29.1    25.6    25.9    22.6    29003           0.00      38    
WED 18Z 14-MAR  36.1    25.9    36.0    19.1    32008     SN    0.01      60   

 

 

[uncheelfan]

Need this to be at night.  I "think" MRX mentioned in their morning disco that this rolls in Sunday night and early Monday AM.  Daytime is a "no go" in my book.  Having just looked at the 12z Euro it is northwest of its 0z run which is an important trend there.  It does not trend quickly, but its trends do matter.  Seemed a bit quicker unless I have my toggle memory backwards.  Overall, good trends if we want to score a surprise...but I think we need to see 0z to see if this was a blip or a trend.  Yeah, the bubble is real.  However, I think it has much more to do with how we are situated in the Valley.  I lived in JC for a few years, and upslope is definitely better there.  We get a rain shadow w northwest flow events here.  Now, what we need on this side of the Valley is flow that backs over the mountains to our East and then we get upslope.  That is why we often do better w Miller A events and not so much w northwest flow.  The northwest flow events do really well from Rock Springs all of the way to the spine of the Apps.  But it certainly has a weird appearance to drive up over the hill at the rest stop and see snow in my rearview mirror and brown in front.  Bays Mountain does some crazy stuff w systems that approach from my SW...washes them out thankfully during severe season, but enhances them if they are more like derechos that approach from the northwest.

I totally agree with you 100 percent. I live literally 2 minutes from the rest stop and you are correct. Funny how everything plays out around my neck of the woods. I have watched many of times stuff rolling off of bays mt and by the time it reaches my house it either vanishes or is no where near as amped up as it was as its rolling off the mountain. It just seems like every time we have a legitament chance at something weather wise either it be severe or winter weather i always get the shaft. Hopefully by tomorrow night and into Monday morning we all wake up to a nice little or "big" lol surprise. Oh and by the way GO HEELS!!!!!

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[John1122]

The NAM is about to strafe the southern 1/2 of Kentucky again with the way this run looks. As an aside, did tropical lose the RGEM?

[BlunderStorm]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The NAM is about to strafe the southern 1/2 of Kentucky again with the way this run looks. As an aside, did tropical lose the RGEM?

Actually it's just out of view under mesoscale scroll down a little under the list and you will see it.

[Carvers Gap]

From MRX....very conservative(especially for southwest Virginia), but warranted at this stage for NE TN.  However, trends have been good lately.   That said, trends do not make a forecast at this point.   I am not sure MRX would have hoisted a WSW for the mountains had the mtns of NC to been mentioned as upwards of 10" of snow.  Just a bit of a difference between the two forecast offices....

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)...An active period
ahead as we watch for a potential snow-maker across our higher
elevations. Still quite a bit of model spread but not as bad as
the past few days. However, though the models are in somewhat
better agreement, the slightest shift with the track of the low
will change the forecast for our area. As it stands, models
generally show the low coming across the mid-state Sunday night
into Monday morning and tracking directly over our area. As the
low swings across the mid- state it should pick up a little
moisture from the south as it taps into weak 850mb southerly flow
and wraps it into the back side of the low. How much moisture
depends on how organized the low is. So not only does track play
an importance, but so does the organization as a more developed
low would pull in more moisture and colder air opposed to a weaker
area of low pressure. It looks like rain will be ongoing across
the area Sunday night and will transition over to snow around
midnight across the highest peaks, above 6000 feet. The rain/snow
line will work its way down in elevation through the night and
into the morning hours. The best window for accumulation looks to
occur between 09z and 15z. Highest confidence in moderate snowfall
accumulations are across extreme northeast TN where a winter
storm watch is in place. 2 to 4 inches of snow is possible above
3000/4000 feet. A special weather statement in place for the
Greene through Blount mountain zones, as well as our southwest
Virginia counties where there is less confidence in snowfall
amounts. Across these areas, forecasting 2 to 3 inches of snow
above 3000/4000 feet and around 1 inch above 2000 feet. As the
forecast continues to be updated, watch areas could change and
advisories may be needed as well.

Precip ends from west to east through the day on Monday as the low
pulls east. The far eastern mountains will hold onto precip the
longest. With the long wave trough still in place, we get clipped by
additional waves of moisture across our northern areas from Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Precip is expected to be on the lighter
side. Favored upslope areas could see minor snow accumulations. The
trough finally begins to push east on Thursday as weak ridging
builds across the central Plains, allowing temps to climb back into
the mid 50s. Ridging slides further east on Friday warming us up
into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Our next system approaches Saturday
with rain chances increasing by the afternoon hours and continued
warm temps.

[uncheelfan]

Is there any chance that the ns interaction with the ull produces colder air than modeled? I think that if the northern stream can get more involved that we will have a better chance at least for some minor accumulation of snow here in NE TN.

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[Carvers Gap]

23 minutes ago, uncheelfan said:

Is there any chance that the ns interaction with the ull produces colder air than modeled? I think that if the northern stream can get more involved that we will have a better chance at least for some minor accumulation of snow here in NE TN.

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I think there is a lot still on the table right now as evidenced by variations in modeling.

[uncheelfan]

It just amazes me that all of the technology we have and we still cant pin point whats goimg to happen 2 days from now. Sure the models are trying to come to some sort of agreement but i just find it insane that this far out from the event we all are still wondering what's really goimg to happen lol.

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[jaxjagman]

National Weather Service Nashville TN
300 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Dry weather is holding this afternoon ahead of the next shortwave
that will swing southeast from the Plains through the remainder of
the weekend. Showers will creep northward from AL/MS overnight,
with the best chances near the TN/AL border. Slight chances will
be north of I-40 until later in the morning on Sunday and into the
afternoon as the upper low inches closer to the mid state. Models
do place some instability and decent deep layer shear over the
area this evening through Sunday afternoon, so went ahead and
added in mention of thunder for the south tonight and most of the
area tomorrow.

Models continue to dance around snow potential for Sunday night
into Monday morning, with the NAM leading the way with cooler
temps earlier Sunday evening and more snow overnight, and the
ECMWF holding on to warm temps long enough until precip chances
are out of the area Monday morning. Other models are somewhere in
between the NAM and ECMWF, but the majority place at least some
snow for the far north and Plateau by sunrise Monday. By late
Sunday night, the ECMWF and GFS are lined up pretty well in
regards to the upper low, while the NAM is just a bit further
south and east which explains the extra cold air a bit sooner over
the mid state. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at a dry slot right
behind the cold front, which may limit precip to light
rain/flurries depending on temperatures at the surface. The dry
slot mentioned earlier may drive wet bulb temperatures lower, and
bring some chances for snow earlier thanks to the wet bulb effect.
Models look to keep the cold air aloft and keep the surface warm
just long enough to prevent more widespread snow chances, but cold
air any earlier will bring snow to more locations and more
accumulation potential. Model soundings show that slightly drier
air near the surface around 09Z, which again may help pull those
surface temperatures lower. So, went ahead and slightly adjusted
the previous forecast for the most part to have mainly rain
before 06Z Sunday, mixed rain and snow potential spreading
southeastward through around 09Z, and mainly snow for lower
valleys, the TN/KY border, and northern Plateau just before 12Z.
This may bring accumulations up to around a half inch or so with
current forecast thinking to those areas, and a trace or dusting
to other areas seeing snow early Monday morning. Model evolution
over the next day or so will hopefully aid in nailing down the
snow potential Sunday night further.

Dry air rushes in rapidly Monday thanks to strong NVA and
shortwave ridging behind the trough, so skies should clear out
Monday morning pretty quickly. We will be stuck in upper level
northwest flow for most of the week as an upper closed low spins
over the eastern Great Lakes and northeast US, so there doesnt
look to be too much temperature recovery until later in the week.
The GFS is hinting at some backside trough light snow potential
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but other models keep it
further east for now so kept in dry conditions. As the trough
moves further northeast Thursday, upper ridging/zonal flow can
finally take over aloft and bring in some warmer temps Thursday
and Friday ahead of the next trough.

The next trough to bring rain chances to the area oddly enough
will be a closed low just north of the Great Lakes combined with
some subtle upper disturbances in the flow. A strong cold front
will work its way southward, and a large shield of precip looks to
develop Friday night and Saturday. Models do have some decent
instability and shear, so went ahead and mentioned thunderstorms
for Saturday afternoon. The cold front doesnt look to hit the mid
state as the upper trough races eastward, so it looks like the
warmer temps will hold through next weekend and into the following
week.

[John1122]

Models further close in on the Kentucky solution. Probably winter storm watches coming up for about 30 miles north of the Kentucky border to about 100 miles north of the border.

[Kentucky]

always seem to be dancing the warm nose here

[jaxjagman]

The NAM is stronger with the ULL which i mentioned above for us in Mid Tn,i really can't believe we are trying to decipher a system a day out,you'd think we'd have this figured out..lol

[John1122]

JKL forecast discussion is basically "we could get a lot of snow or a little, we don't really know". Tough forecast this time of year. Strength of system is a huge factor in how much cooling occurs and how much it snows anywhere it does. Need a dynamic system to produce rates that cool the column. There will probably be areas that get 4-6 inches of snow surrounded by areas with virtually nothing. If the track is 50 miles south or north it's a huge difference because the band is narrow.

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

always seem to be dancing the warm nose here, suppose thats just the way it is now

If you have any elevation, above 1200 feet even, you're in as good a spot as anyone in the forum.

[John1122]

3k NAM is kind to Middle Tennessee.

Right now for Tennessee if you border Kentucky/Virginia/North Carolina, are north of 40 or are above 2000 feet in elevation, you have skin in the game.

For the forum, if you're above 3000, are in Kentucky or SWVA you're in the best spot.

[John1122]

If I had to make a call I'd say 1-2 inches for anyone from Clarksville to the Tri-Cities are possible, along the Ky/VA/Tn border counties. 2-5 in Southern/Central Kentucky, SWVA. 4-6 above 3000, 6-10 above 5000.  I wouldn't guarantee anything for all these areas, but I think somewhere in those areas will see those totals. Isolated higher amounts as always, are possible.

 

[Kentucky]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

If you have any elevation, above 1200 feet even, you're in as good a spot as anyone in the forum.

Just barely, I'm at 1300. Actually never checked that before, Thanks for mentioning 

[John1122]

27 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

Just barely, I'm at 1300. Actually never checked that before, Thanks for mentioning 

If this unfolds the way things look now I think you've got a good shot at 2-4 inches. More will fall but I'd guess you realize 2-4 on the ground. Subject to wild swings of course.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Sorry to have missed out on all the fun today!   Not much to add so far.  However, something I've been wondering about and this might be a good time to test it: does the SREF indicate where the NAM will go? I've seen this cited before. But I've also seen people say the SREFs are a "hot mess" (not necessarily on this sub forum). 

The SREFs are often used for the plumes and snow amounts, but I've been fooling around with their H5 means.  Looking at the trends over the last several runs, the energy swinging down the back side of the trough has consistently trended westward and I think the further west this trends, the more east the whole shebang comes as it pivots and possibly moves up the coast. This would seem to be confirmed in part in the 18z, 3k NAM.

Was waiting to see where the 21z SREFs came in and indeed, they are yet further west with the energy driving down. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/matrix.php?fhr=f024&startdate=latest&field=SREF_H5__  (toggle the arrows at the top control bar to see the last ten runs). 

EDIT: I should also add that the SREFs have been trending to hold the initial vortex back, since some of those earlier runs have the northern energy west as well. Also, the 21z SREF at 21z Monday turns the whole 500mb trough slightly negative from Hudson's Bay to almost Augusta, GA.  

Now the test, will the 0z NAM come in further west with a more Miller A track?  If so how will this impact us? If its the NAM alone does it matter? 

 

[John1122]

One of the AFD mentioned earlier that the NAM has issues this time of year before 24 hours out, then it tends to fall in line. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Man, the end of the SREFs, I think give an indication of an nice East Coast storm.  Not necessarily much higher impact for us, but I think whatever the NAM shows (right or not) at 0z will make most East Coast folks happy.  Will gladly use this as a learning opportunity if not.  Maybe not a big change for our area, but plumes are slightly up as of 21z.  

My buzzsaw vort I've been harping on is bearing down, so I don't see much room for improvement, but as I said this AM: wait and see mode. 

EDIT: looks like my approach to using the SREFs may have been wrong for the east coast, (the "whole shebang" on the 0z NAM looks a little bit east of 18z for the east coast ) but since a bit of the initial vort hangs back, the whole vort is a bit further south as it crosses our area and this helps temps and snow totals in the favored regions our forum area (noted earlier today). All this is in respect to my SREF experiment above.  For me I think wait and see is still the best approach at this time.

[jaxjagman]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
742 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

TNZ005>011-025>034-059-062>066-078>080-110945-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Dickson-
Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-Putnam-Overton-
Fentress-Williamson-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-
Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield,
Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina,
Byrdstown, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville,
Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage,
Gordonsville, Gainesboro, Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown,
Allardt, Franklin, Brentwood, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne,
Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta, Crossville, McMinnville, Altamont,
Coalmont, and Spencer
742 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

...A Quick Shot of Measurable Snow Possible Over Parts of the Mid
State Late Sunday Night and Early Monday...

A low pressure system will move across our area Sunday night and
early Monday, pulling in colder air from the north and giving
northern and eastern parts of Middle Tennessee a chance for
measurable snowfall. The best chance for snowfall accumulation
will be in the counties near the Kentucky border, especially along
the Highland Rim, north of Nashville, extending eastward toward
Lafayette, Smithville and the Cumberland Plateau. Those areas
could see between one half and one inch of snow accumulation late
Sunday night and early Monday morning.

A Dusting of snow is possible in areas from around Dover and
Clarksville, down toward Nashville, Lebanon and McMinnville.

There is still some uncertainly regarding snowfall accumulations,
and you should listen for additional weather updates through the
day on Sunday to see if there has been any change in the
forecast.

Temperatures late Sunday night and early Monday are expected to
drop to between 29 and 32 degrees over extreme northern Middle
Tennessee and along the Cumberland Plateau. So, it is possible
that some roads could become slushy or snow covered.

Any snow that falls won`t stick around long, as temperatures are
forecast to top out in the 40s to around 50 by Monday afternoon.

[John1122]

Modeling is shaking out to the northern solution with this thing. Looking more and more like a central Kentucky special with maybe some accumulation down to the border areas.

00z NAM snow depth by Monday morning at 8 am.

RGEM doesn't have depth but snow ratios are 8:1 and you'd lost probably 1/3rd to 1/2 to melting.