Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

[ShawnEastTN]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

That one two years ago crushed Volunteer Electric. Plateau does get it too. Meanwhile Chattanooga was mostly just rain - good.

Christmas 1998 is a great memory. It started in Texas. I'm quoted in the Christmas Day Dallas Morning News(paper) saying, it's going to be a Black Ice Christmas. Reporter had asked me about White Christmas, and that came out of my early career mouth. Fun times in Wichita, KS I think we scored a dusting of snow Christmas Day while Texas (to Tennessee) got iced.

Finally the Euro weeklies kind of say what the ensembles say: Hurry up and wait. Cold is coming. Verbatim it has the 16-20 day cold. Could be a little faster.

I was one of those VEC customers though in the valley on the Roane/Meigs county line, was without power for more than 24 hours heavy tree damage from that one.

[Carvers Gap]

Very good model trends.  I don't have as much time as normal.  So here is the skinny....6zGEFS/GFS looked really good and so did the 6z GEFS snow mean.  The 12z Euro/EPS looked decent.  The GEPS(Canadian) is the slowest ensemble but still gets there.  The weird look (minus the GEM) has tended to a more eastern trough this morning.  Now, does that hold?  Who knows?  The models are more progressive and/or interact less w the cutoff in the southwest.  The EPS had a big correction w the axis of the trough.  IMO, southwestern TN is finally going to get to join the winter forum party after years of ho hum winter wx.

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Very good model trends.  I don't have as much time as normal.  So here is the skinny....6zGEFS/GFS looked really good and so did the 6z GEFS snow mean.  The 12z Euro/EPS looked decent.  The GEPS(Canadian) is the slowest ensemble but still gets there.  The weird look (minus the GEM) has tended to a more eastern trough this morning.  Now, does that hold?  Who knows?  The models are more progressive and/or interact less w the cutoff in the southwest.  The EPS had a big correction w the axis of the trough.  IMO, southwestern TN is finally going to get to join the winter forum party after years of ho hum winter wx.

Music to my ears!  I hope that comes to fruition.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS struggles with the SW cutoff and the run goes off the tracks....w the cutoff itself not making sense.  It causes all kinds of problems downstream.  Look at 0z and 12z.  The differences are easy to see.  One run handles the cutoff in a way that makes sense.  The other tries to sink to the the Baja.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is a huge break in continuity.  Either it is a shift or it has to be tossed.  The craziness with the cutoff, just causes a whacky run where the lower 48 is eventually evacuated of cold air....where before there was an Arctic outbreak.  

[Carvers Gap]

The Canadian is right there with the 12z GFS.  I will have to see it to believe it.  Backing a trough under a huge EPO ridge and sending cold west across the Rockies....just not buying it.

[PowellVolz]

The Canadian is right there with the 12z GFS.  I will have to see it to believe it.  Backing a trough under a huge EPO ridge and sending cold west across the Rockies....just not buying it.

I’m not buying it either but I don’t like seeing mods go back to something they saw a few days ago. This may not work itself out until the energy in the SW gets fixed.


.

[AMZ8990]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Canadian is right there with the 12z GFS.  I will have to see it to believe it.  Backing a trough under a huge EPO ridge and sending cold west across the Rockies....just not buying it.

Looks like the GFS is back to its mid morning flip flop run!  It's done this the past few days it seems like!

[Carvers Gap]

The GEM...though is not a terrible solution.  It has cold charging down the northern Plains at the end.  The GEM looks 100x different than its 12z run yesterday, but is well within the range(wide range) of solutions that we have seen.  The GFS is almost a completely new look after d10.

[John1122]

The models are pretty much useless beyond 5 days right now. Each time it handles a small feature differently they results are vastly different as to the run. Until that resolves I am riding with -EPO climatology. 

The GFS also delivered a nasty ice storm to me on Christmas eve with .5-.75 inches of ice. No thanks on that one.

[Carvers Gap]

And really it is not so much a trough in the Southwest where the differences begin.   At h84, a small piece of energy is hanging off the side of the NA trough near Juneau.  I placed a map(couple of days ago?)  with that energy mentioned.  It is a Butterfly Effect deal.  That little piece is what forms the southwest cutoff.  The 0z GFS Is progressive with it.  The 12z is not.  You can watch it along w the trough near HI.  The further east that trough, the more likely the Juneau energy does not bury items in the SW.  And we are talking slight differences that make a big difference.  You can tell how the run will end based on those two features @84.   The HI trough forces the waves forward enough on "good runs".  It is 100-200 miles west on "bad" runs.

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The models are pretty much useless beyond 5 days right now. Each time it handles a small feature differently they results are vastly different as to the run. Until that resolves I am riding with -EPO climatology. 

The GFS also delivered a nasty ice storm to me on Christmas eve with .5-.75 inches of ice. No thanks on that one.

I agree.  I think ice somewhere in the forum area is coming.  Right now, I think Nashville south to Memphis is the line I envision w cold pressing from there.  The 12z GFS, though it goes off the rails, looked almost exactly like the 12z Euro yesterday at 240.  Cold high in the central Plains...precipitation in the GOM.  I suspect a wave event along the boundary happens.  Though the placement of the event is all over the place, such an event is on almost every run.  The GEM has a 1054 hp on its run.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z GEFS says the operational is out to lunch.  GEFS maintains consistency w a decent 6z run.  It has cold deep into its run...no scouring of cold out of the lower 48.  

[John1122]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

12z GEFS says the operational is out to lunch.  GEFS maintains consistency w a decent 6z run.  It has cold deep into its run...no scouring of cold out of the lower 48.  

Heck, the GFS scoured cold out of the western hemisphere. Which is essentially impossible simply due to snow cover, lack of daylight and the inability to generate that kind of warmth with a giant blocking H keeping the pacific from sending air into the continent,

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Heck, the GFS scoured cold out of the western hemisphere. Which is essentially impossible simply due to snow cover, lack of daylight and the inability to generate that kind of warmth with a giant blocking H keeping the pacific from sending air into the continent,

I know.  Crazy!  The 12z GEFS on Tropical Tidbits looks very good.   I will take my chances with being near the boundary.  That is where the action will be.  

[Utvols235]

Hey guys new to the forum and not a weather guru at all. Just simply like to read what you guys are saying. (I appreciate all the input) I live in Atlanta but from Knoxville and I'm coming up for Christmas. Hoping we have something like what we got here in Atlanta just a few days ago. Quick question.... are some models better than others depending on the year? I know they have their tendencies but just thought I'd ask. From what I saw the NAM nailed the Atl storm. 

[PowellVolz]

Hey guys new to the forum and not a weather guru at all. Just simply like to read what you guys are saying. (I appreciate all the input) I live in Atlanta but from Knoxville and I'm coming up for Christmas. Hoping we have something like what we got here in Atlanta just a few days ago. Quick question.... are some models better than others depending on the year? I know they have their tendencies but just thought I'd ask. From what I saw the NAM nailed the Atl storm. 

Welcome to the nut house


.

[Carvers Gap]

West TN folks, this is your 12z Euro to comment on. I won't spoil the fun. 

[BlunderStorm]

24 minutes ago, Utvols235 said:

Hey guys new to the forum and not a weather guru at all. Just simply like to read what you guys are saying. (I appreciate all the input) I live in Atlanta but from Knoxville and I'm coming up for Christmas. Hoping we have something like what we got here in Atlanta just a few days ago. Quick question.... are some models better than others depending on the year? I know they have their tendencies but just thought I'd ask. From what I saw the NAM nailed the Atl storm. 

Honestly, it really is hard to tell quite what will happen on Christmas because it's still a good 9-10 days away. We've had quite a few runs with ice/mixed bag storms in our forum area. (please no!) The chance of a winter storm can't be ruled out even for Atlanta but it is very unlikely. The chances go up I believe the further west you are. If the ridge backs off and all atmospheric levels can stay under 32 with a system incoming, sure! As for the models, no model at least from my understanding is better at particular years than others. That being said the reliability of certain models vary over many factors. Carver could probably give a more in depth rundown...

[EastKnox]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

West TN folks, this is your 12z Euro to comment on. I won't spoil the fun. 

Looks brutal to me!

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the clown map...have to think there is serious ice to the SE of that line.  Need to look at 2m temps.  The cold is sliding under those 500 maps.   

[Will (little rock)]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is the clown map...have to think there is serious ice to the SE of that line.  Need to look at 2m temps.  The cold is sliding under those 500 maps.   

Do you think models are overdoing the amounts? 

Most likely to change too lol

 

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Will (little rock) said:

Do you think models are overdoing the amounts? 

Most likely to change too lol

 

I will look more closely.  Just looking at the pattern...but the map shows how the boundary might likely drape.  Where it sets up is anybody's guess.  The Euro showed almost the exact deal yesterday.   It is a wave type event.  Still, the Euro is playing games w the cutoff.  It almost ejected it into the storm but it got strung out.  Now that would be fun.  I think it is even possible that a bigger storm forms on this boundary.  I have said from the get go...this has the western forum area's name written all over it.  The question is whether the models are underdoing the penetration of the cold and the axis of precipitation.  I think winter wx is coming.  Right now, the details just have to be ironed out.

[Will (little rock)]

Thank You! Always enjoy reading your input.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Will (little rock) said:

Thank You! Always enjoy reading your input.

No problem.  Hoping somebody(hopefully several) see some snow from this cold!

[EastKnox]

The last few runs of the Euro OP have pushed that frontal boundary to the SE and those 2m temps down.  I'm curious to see if the next run continues that trend and expands the wintry precip field.

 

[PowellVolz]

The last few runs of the Euro OP have pushed that frontal boundary to the SE and those 2m temps down.  I'm curious to see if the next run continues that trend and expands the wintry precip field.

 

I think you’re gonna see this.


.

[John1122]

The Euro is heavy ice from Memphis to Jackson to Nashville to the Northern Plateau. Snow NW of those areas. It begins just after midnight Christmas Eve and it's a 24 hour freezing rain event. Temps fall slowly from around 32 into the 20s. The areas below freezing for the duration are S Ky, Northern Plateau, all of the western 1/3 of Tennessee. Temps quickly go below freezing from Cookeville West and stay there for hours with precip falling. 

Southern Arkansas, Northern Miss, Memphis, Jackson, Nashville. Northern Plateau, South Central and SE Ky get a crippling ice storm. Dallas to Little Rock to Lexington get a major snow event, including NW Tn. 

Edit to add that by midnight Christmas night SW Va is receiving significant freezing rain.

[PowellVolz]

The Euro is heavy ice from Memphis to Jackson to Nashville to the Northern Plateau. Snow NW of those areas. It begins just after midnight Christmas Eve and it's a 24 hour freezing rain event. Temps fall slowly from around 32 into the 20s. The areas below freezing for the duration are S Ky, Northern Plateau, all of the western 1/3 of Tennessee. Temps quickly go below freezing from Cookeville West and stay there for hours with precip falling. 

Southern Arkansas, Northern Miss, Memphis, Jackson, Nashville. Northern Plateau, South Central and SE Ky get a crippling ice storm. Dallas to Little Rock to Lexington get a major snow event, including NW Tn. 

Edit to add that by midnight Christmas night SW Va is receiving significant freezing rain.

Knoxville be like.....




.

[Carvers Gap]

And to add to John’s comments which were excellent...the bias of the models might be to not have the cold far enough SE. The cold was stalled due to interaction w the cutoff....I don’t think it can be ruled out that the cutoff might come out as well.  But the odds of a winter storm across the southern Plains and Upper South are increasing.