Carvers Gap Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 0z Euro operational was somewhat interesting around d7 w a wave forming on a cold front along the GC and developing slp as it goes northward. Very weak inland runner. Not sure how much support it had from the EPS as it is difficult to tell when the actual slp formed on the operational - meaning there were only one or two slps on the EPS that formed Southeast of us. However, it very well could be that operational is represented by one that is over central and eastern Virginia as the wave does not become a low until then. Still too far out there, but that depiction has shown up a few times on the Euro and GFS. @1234snow had a similar look posted recently. Not saying that will happen, as it would need to be stronger for impacts here, but interesting. Usually a low in the GL is not good here, but who knows w the crazy winter we have had. edit: you can see it on Tropical Tidbits at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Definitely going to be interesting to see how everything evolves once this monster of the coast of NE settles out. I remember I got all excited a several days ago when that storm seemed to be trending all the way down to central VA on a couple Euro runs (I was hoping that was an indication for the block's strength and later threats might too). As of 6z today, on the 3k NAM and RGEM even Boston is looking wet, so that was a dud hope! Old English quote of the day sums up my thoughts: "Wyrd bið ful aræd" from the Wanderer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just when it looks like all major storms will be north and slide off as Miller B solutions...the GFS and CMC suppress everything. I would have thought consistency would be more apparent by now w the block making each system slower. But the active northern stream seems to be making this pretty complicated along w systems coming into California . Not a benign pattern at this point but still tons of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Definitely going to be interesting to see how everything evolves once this monster of the coast of NE settles out. I remember I got all excited a several days ago when that storm seemed to be trending all the way down to central VA on a couple Euro runs (I was hoping that was an indication for the block's strength and later threats might too). As of 6z today, on the 3k NAM and RGEM even Boston is looking wet, so that was a dud hope! Old English quote of the day sums up my thoughts: "Wyrd bið ful aræd" from the Wanderer It will be interesting to see if that rain verifies just inland in the NE...9/10 that is snow. But it is such an unusual storm and approach angle....I can't tell if it is rotating maritime air into the storm or if the cold source is just weak. Dynamically, that looks like it should be snow. Thankfully, that headache was never in the cards for us for very long. Definitely interested in the three that follow. Not a boring pattern if one likes weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Definitely going to be interesting to see how everything evolves once this monster of the coast of NE settles out. I remember I got all excited a several days ago when that storm seemed to be trending all the way down to central VA on a couple Euro runs (I was hoping that was an indication for the block's strength and later threats might too). As of 6z today, on the 3k NAM and RGEM even Boston is looking wet, so that was a dud hope! Old English quote of the day sums up my thoughts: "Wyrd bið ful aræd" from the Wanderer Sure enough. The Euro hammers the western burbs of Boston at 12z...which makes more sense. I think the models are really struggling w how much maritime air wraps in. Very significant storm on the Euro for the NE now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The 12GEFS does have a decent snow mean for March over the eastern Valley from I40 north and Plateau eastward. From days 5-15 the mean is 2-4" increasing as one goes to NE TN. Nothing certain, but a coastal storm signal in that look...probably more than one as there are a couple of clusters that pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The second system (mid week next week) that looks to follow the current one and the evolution of the NAO block seem to be the key to the couple of pieces of energy the models on occasion are spinning up south of us late next week and next weekend. It seems to me the key is how the block evolves. The Euro keeps it fairly strong in the northern Davis Straits and this locks the second system more south and west toward Labrador while the CMC and GFS weaken the block and ooze it southwest into Quebec and Hudson's Bay, allowing the second system to become a 50/50 in the north Atlantic and send higher heights and high pressure into the great lakes and forcing systems south. Oddly enough, looking at the 12z Ensemble means the GEFS is furthest north with the NAO block in the time period in question and the EPS and GEPS are closer to the CMC and GFS operational at 12z, but none are as far south as the operational GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: It will be interesting to see if that rain verifies just inland in the NE...9/10 that is snow. But it is such an unusual storm and approach angle....I can't tell if it is rotating maritime air into the storm or if the cold source is just weak. Dynamically, that looks like it should be snow. Thankfully, that headache was never in the cards for us for very long. Definitely interested in the three that follow. Not a boring pattern if one likes weather. I think the NAM was listening. It has since trended closer to the coast with its rain snow line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think the NAM was listening. It has since trended closer to the coast with its rain snow line! Winter '17/'18 is over fella's - even for you guys out East - sooner you can let it go allot happier you will be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 19 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Winter '17/'18 is over fella's - even for you guys out East - sooner you can let it go allot happier you will be! I'm holding out for March 20th. By then I think whatever's gonna happen with all this blocking will have or won't have, at least for me in my valley location. I know it can go later for higher elevations, but this year, for me in the valley, that's my date for saying it's a done deal (unless some random anomalous storm pops up). Speaking of higher elevations, I can hike and be above 6000 feet in around 3 - 3 and a half hours, so if there is an elevation storm I will go check it out. You could be entirely right and if I was forced to wager I'd say you were. It seems like this winter has been unique for me in that there has just been one thing that keeps me coming back. In December we had that overrunning event that produced from TX through the south, then we had those ensemble snow means, then we had the east coast blizzard in early January, then we had the storm that fired a little too late for us and hit NC, then we had the flip, but hoped for an unrealized February return to cold. Even then, when it seemed the Nina had finally won out, the Stratosphere buzz started and even though there wasn't much hope, there was a little, after all, most of these large scale pattern forcers seem to take time to evolve and decay and impact specific places. Then we saw signs of the -NAO and so here we are. I think PowellVolz said earlier this month this whole winter was a big fantasy or something like that and I chuckled when I read that because I think that accurately sums up all this "oh so close, but oh so far" in the above events. But I'm in for a penny and in for a pound now, if it's gonna beat me down, I'm gnashing my teeth to the end. Besides, this is my first season participating in the discussion and I'm enjoying it! A final Old English quote for the winter season: Wyrd oft nereð unfægne eorl þonne his ellen deah. Fate often saves an undoomed man, if his courage holds. (Beowulf, ll. 572-3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, weathertree4u said: Winter '17/'18 is over fella's - even for you guys out East - sooner you can let it go allot happier you will be! Who says I am unhappy? My emotions are not tied to something I cannot control(excluding Tennessee football). This business of criticizing posters who are speculating about winter threats (in the winter speculation thread of all places) needs to stop, respectfully. It began several weeks ago. I realize it is frustrating for some when it does not snow during winter, but that is not my fault or anyone else's. These forums have a tendency to transfer blame about winter(or lack of) to posters who have zero control over it. Last year it snowed on Mt Leconte in May. I have had less than two inches of snow all winter. I average 14. But I enjoy watching for storm threats. I enjoy watching record heat ridges, extreme cold shots, SSWs, etc. That is why I am on this forum. I originally came for the snow maps. That got pretty old. Right now is a great time to practice pattern recognition...snow in Rome, PV splits, high latitude blocking. Sure, no major threats are consistently modeled(though the EPS control had a bruiser d10+ but not worth more than a passing mention at that range), but there is plenty of interesting weather. And though I think the chances are certainly higher that we don't see significant snow in the Valley, that cannot be ruled out by any means at this point. A -NAO in place is a decent signal...it is not like we are talking about something that does not have support. Now, that is all I have to say on the matter. I am not getting in a back and forth like a few weeks ago. In many cases, these threads will be used as a historical reference. If we stop posting now...how in the world will we know anything about how March fits into the end game of winter? We may look back and say...man, that ended w a bang. Or we may say....this winter was very similar to 1989. We simply do not know the answer right now. Nobody can see the future. Probably an easier statement is, "Guys, I am out. I just don't see it." But, again respectfully, folks need to lay off the folks still posting because we enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 For the winter is over folks...might want to go look at the 18z GFS. Not saying that will happen....but those types of runs are why we are still here. It actually has accumulating snow in the valley inside of d7. Do I think it likely...nah. Been a different solution at that time frame for several runs. But it is not without winter threats is the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The Plateau and E TN mountains have upwards of 6"on that happy hour 18z GFS run. The Valleys are 2-3". I just don't talk about every single accumulating run, I mainly discuss the pattern each run...the GEFS has been reasonably beefy for early to mid March. Again, just run is one variation of many. It does not make anyone wrong or right. But, again, the pattern w the -NAO has not even started. It runs from about March 3rd until some time either side of mid-March. But I am not about to miss out on what "could" be an interesting patter just because no model has a storm. I take the -NAO pattern and the idea that it correlates to EC storms...that alone is interesting discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think the NAM was listening. It has since trended closer to the coast with its rain snow line! Yeah, close call. It is coming in at such a weird angle...tough to model a wonky storm. I could see rain along the coast up there. But seems like heavy, wet snow just inland makes sense in NY, RI, CT, and Mass. Tough to know how much air wraps in given speed variances on each model. But again for those new to the thread(not speaking of you HRV), this is not our storm. There are 3-4 after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The 18z GFS was a run that illustrates the potential of the blocking pattern. Storm after storm. Is it right? Who knows. That might have been the best run in several weeks. It does, however, illustrate what many of us have mentioned as a possibility for several weeks. Nice run. EPS was definitely nice at 500. Still needs some more support - a lot more is needed. But again, the blocking pattern has not even started. It begins Saturday. Models are just now getting a handle on this. May be something. May be nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I normally don't post these, and will likely take them down soon. However, I will give some ensemble evidence as to why I am not yet ready to hang it up. No way I am dismissing winter quite yet when I have a 4-6" snow mean over the next 16 days. The past few runs have shown similar placement w may a 1/3 less amount. I have been sitting on this, because I hate to hype. There is a -NAO and at least some model support for some snow. Below is the d16 set of GEFS ensembles. By no means is this spiking the football....it will likely be less at 0z. Calling your shot in weather is a great way to eat crow all day long. But the EPS control and 18z happy hour GFS/GEFS now show some life. How much? No way to know as the blocking pattern will not be here until Saturday. What I do like is that for today, the models have shown some faint glimmers of hope....no rays of sunshine, but glimmers. The time frame for us really looks like March 7-18th(maybe 2-3 days less depending). NO IDEA if that will work out. It is always house money to play the "no snow" card in the valleys outside of Jan and early Feb. But you can see that the GEFS does somewhat support the operational at 18z. On the next run. The past few days have not been decent runs for snow lovers. So...this could be a blip or a trend. Time will tell, but it is certainly interesting and worth the discussion. I will add that I am not as concerned about amounts...those have been wrong all season. What I do look for is the trend for where models want it to snow....looks like a coastal/inland runner/upslope signal to me. BTW, it is a glacier in the NE. I can almost promise that there will be will swings during upcoming runs w big amounts and nothing. So, THIS IS NOT THE GOSPEL just one of many variations. But I think it is certainly evidence of why I am not hanging it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I never give up until April..April 2-5 1987 was my all time favorite..Had almost 28 inches of snow..Snow kept falling for 3 days..Thought it was never going to stop..Probably never see another storm like that in my lifetime but i know and still believe there's all ways a chance..So many good memories..Buying my first 4x4 and taking my current wife out and driving around acting crazy..She thought i was a god but deep down i knew it was the used 82 Chevy silverado..That thing would push snow up to the front bumper and still keep going..Everyone needs to live and see a snow like this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Who says I am unhappy? My emotions are not tied to something I cannot control(excluding Tennessee football). This business of criticizing posters who are speculating about winter threats (in the winter speculation thread of all places) needs to stop, respectfully. It began several weeks ago. I realize it is frustrating for some when it does not snow during winter, but that is not my fault or anyone else's. These forums have a tendency to transfer blame about winter(or lack of) to posters who have zero control over it. Last year it snowed on Mt Leconte in May. I have had less than two inches of snow all winter. I average 14. But I enjoy watching for storm threats. I enjoy watching record heat ridges, extreme cold shots, SSWs, etc. That is why I am on this forum. I originally came for the snow maps. That got pretty old. Right now is a great time to practice pattern recognition...snow in Rome, PV splits, high latitude blocking. Sure, no major threats are consistently modeled(though the EPS control had a bruiser d10+ but not worth more than a passing mention at that range), but there is plenty of interesting weather. And though I think the chances are certainly higher that we don't see significant snow in the Valley, that cannot be ruled out by any means at this point. A -NAO in place is a decent signal...it is not like we are talking about something that does not have support. Now, that is all I have to say on the matter. I am not getting in a back and forth like a few weeks ago. In many cases, these threads will be used as a historical reference. If we stop posting now...how in the world will we know anything about how March fits into the end game of winter? We may look back and say...man, that ended w a bang. Or we may say....this winter was very similar to 1989. We simply do not know the answer right now. Nobody can see the future. Probably an easier statement is, "Guys, I am out. I just don't see it." But, again respectfully, folks need to lay off the folks still posting because we enjoy it. Just basing the "happier" comment off of the perceived rationalization that appears to have been taking place concerning the current/upcoming pattern and why it "should" work out to produce. Not saying that anyone ever actually said that, which was why I said perceived. Amazing how a couple of sentences can be contrived to being "on someonbody," respectfully of course. Perhaps an easier statement if one did not agree with my statement would have been to say nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 hours ago, weathertree4u said: Just basing the "happier" comment off of the perceived rationalization that appears to have been taking place concerning the current/upcoming pattern and why it "should" work out to produce. Not saying that anyone ever actually said that, which was why I said perceived. Amazing how a couple of sentences can be contrived to being "on someonbody," respectfully of course. Perhaps an easier statement if one did not agree with my statement would have been to say nothing at all. I completely understood your comments which is why I responded. You are certainly more than welcome to use the ignore feature for my posts. You made a direct response to one of my posts which is not contrived. We have ALL have stated during multiple occasions that March is a tough pattern for snow during the best of conditions. Certainly for many it is frustrating that we have had less snow. But do not make me a sounding board for frustration. I can count three times that various posters have become sounding boards this winter due to frustration (not all you). We have also set out evidence as early as early February that this could be a window for a storm and/or cold. We actually began discussion about high latitude blocking before a single model even depicted it. Our thinking has been carefully spelled out in several posts, and so have the usual caveats. So, the "rationalizing" comment is just a false statement. This business began several weeks ago, and like I said, it needs to stop. Yes, it has been a tough winter. It is perfectly fine to disagree, but I think some have decided that every piece of information has to be an exact forecast in this thread. We are speculating about the pattern. This is not a forecast thread. We have had fewer event threads this winter, mainly due to a lack of much to follow. However, we probably needed a flooding thread. We probably needed a thread for the severe cold period. But I think folks are less likely to post those because they don't want to be wrong or to be seen as a hype monster. Absolutely, folks are more than welcome to speculate about how the pattern could work out. The only way to get better is to risk being wrong. Like lugnuts stated....winter takes a while to run its course in some areas. I will be more than glad to continue the discussion in banter. I can say this, I will here be discussing whatever potential winter remains(whether it be ten days or one month). I am not going to stop because an arbitrary "cancel" has been placed on winter. And yes, I will be speculating on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The 6z GEFS does again contain a beefy snow mean for the easter Valley from I-40 north. The 0z EPS control is again interesting in its placement of 500 features. The EPS mean is too washed out at this range to discern individual features at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Carver, I want to tell you how much I appreciate your posts. I check every evening and morning to see if you have posted. I do not post often because of my limited knowledge. One thing I know about living my entire life in East TN is that snow can happen late in the spring. My son has a birthday the first part of May and we were in the Smokies to celebrate. To our surprise snow started to fall and before it was over they had more than a foot. Please keep the info. coming, I for one appreciate your diligence and love for weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 So here is what I see... 1. Twelve day window opens beginning March 3rd. It will last until mid-Month. Many of the models bring ridging back into the area then. It is possible that they are slightly too quick in ending the block, but their time frame looks about right. 2. There are a wide range of options on the table during that window. As I stated above, the easy call in the Valley is to go w "no snow." I could say that with most looks and be right 90% of the time at any time of the year. What I am trying to do is to find the other 10% of the time. It may or may not be this year. 3. The variations in modeling and w climo are really in two camps and not necessarily between two models. Sometimes models have both camps on varying runs. The first camp which is the "no snow" camp is where troughs dig out of the northern stream and are too far to the east and north. The second camp are storms that dig either out of the northern stream or more southward due to their entry latitude on the West coast. (This weekend's storm is camp number one. That is stike one, but we knew that we were taking the first pitch.) The Euro is split between the two camps. The EPS control looks very much like the last three runs of the GFS/GEFS w systems digging. That forces the systems to slide under or over our area. Some go to a Miller A looks. The Euro/EPS and operational are north with their energy. Right now, what we are looking for are either a slp that stalls over our area or a slider/Miller A setup. The GFS and even the Euro operational depict decent 500 patterns for snow at varying times. I think the main window is March 7-15th. That is our shot. 4. House money during March is always on rain. If I wanted to be right most of the time(again, even during the dead of winter), I could go with "no snow" for every single system and have a pretty decent verification score. Climo has a great verification score. Our climo is the sub-tropics. It does not want to snow in the sub-tropics. Looking for big snows in March is like fishing for big browns in New Zealand(or how I would imagine it anyway). There aren't many, but the ones that are there are big. You may go days without a hookup, but that does not mean that you quit looking. 5. Where things have gone correctly is that the SSW did happen. The PV was split. The troposphere was directly impacted. Blocking over Greenland is highly likely to happen. During the coming weeks we are likely to see 30-40 degree temperature swings compared to the record heat, a true flip. What has never been guaranteed is snow. What has been speculated is that a window for cold and stormy pattern would develop w a possible return to winter. I think that happens, but that could be snow or cold rain. I am not hitching my wagon to the GFS, even though it looks very good recently. It has been pretty good between d10-15. But until the Euro operational is on board, still have to wait. The GFS does show a decent potential pattern. The CMC sort-of does. The Euro is pretty meh at this point....there is a reason it is called "Dr No." Like I said, it does not dig systems as much so most of its systems go OTS. I tend to thinks its physics embedded within the model are just better inside of day seven. 6. First system rolls this weekend, and then I suspect we have 3-4 systems that follow. I would say 55-60% of those runs go north....the other 45% go over us or to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Blocking will remain in place through Day 15. NAO number appears to relax because of Greenland, but northeast Canada is still blocking central. We have not seen this type of blocking since 2010; so, one can speculate the models are not cold enough. Yup Carvers is right, this is the speculation thread. I had to be reminded a while back. Will I-40 get a snow? Who knows! However I'm pretty confident cold temps will verify. Heck I'll concede I'm a little unhappy about the snow whiffs. Yeah stuff I can't control pisses me off: Montgomery AL ahead of Chatty in snow, Kansas losing in the Elite Eight, and Wichita State on CBSS instead of ESPN, lol! Still all is well. KU 14! Severe weather pre-season is under way. Regular season starts in just a few short weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 In the category of "something to watch"....The 12z GFS rightly or wrongly has that system around 132 that develops a wave over the Panhandle and sends it to Hatteras where it just stops. It is basically a weak, coastal hugging system that is a Miller A and stalls over Hatteras and goes sub 990 near the mouth of the Chesapeake. Synoptic snow and upslope snow breaks out in middle and east TN. And sit it does for about a day. The CMC has a very bearish system that is more westward, but w a wave of slp ejecting from the Gulf area. Someone noted that it looks like the models are having trouble sorting out where to put the most energy. If it is the northern feature, we are not in the game. If it is the wave, that "could" be much stronger. The Euro had it a few days ago and lost it. I need to check the overnight run of the EPS for surface locations but its control is going nuts in the d6-10 range(I might be off a day or two there). Anyway, need the Euro operational on board before taking the GFS seriously, but the look is tempting. If that was inland by 150 miles and stalled.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Something I happened across just now in regards to the blocking and storm tracks... I was looking at trends with the next system (as of 12z run at hour 144 or so of the GFS) and decided to use my up and down arrows to look for trends over the past several runs. Go back 10 -15 runs and look at how far south the parent low has trended. I'm not skilled enough to know if its because the blocking is coming into range now or if it has to do more with energy timing or just moving forward in time, but man, that upper low has trended south and is now consistently showing snow showers next Wednesday in the higher elevation and maybe even in the valleys (though I'd wager now it would be more realistic for areas below 2000 feet after dark or if we got some nice lapse rates and intense precip. when the 500 mb low moves over head). If that is the trend maybe the next few pieces of energy trend south as well. We will see. Either way already planned a hike next Wednesday to 5000-6000 feet to see what happens. (Edit, snow or not, I run a camping field trip the SW US for students at my college and they have to take practice hikes to get ready so already had one planned regardless, hopefully I luck out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The ICON FWIW also has a similar track. Need the Euro on board or trending at 12z in order to take it seriously. It had it at one point. Might very well end up too far to the East in reality, but seeing a wave of slp coming out of the GC to Hatteras inside of d6 keeps my attention. Need it west, but it could easily trend that way if real...but way ahead of myself at this point. Holston, I am leaning towards the models are just now "seeing" the push of the block. Before Christmas, the -EPO was a monster, but the models took some time to get the storm track correct. At first, we were the bullseye...but reality was New Orleans and Houston. It may be that the -NAO is actually doing its work. Need several more model runs to know if that statement by me is true. That said, this block does support the look on the GFS and CMC. Now whether that is reality? No idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Two low clusters at different times over the SE and coastal areas about 18 hours apart. Does not mean two systems, just that timing is different for the same system. There is a big storm in the GL area(not the best setup but the stalled front deal can help). All eyes on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Might be a double barrel structure to the same storm system. Wouldn't be any fun without energy transfer questions, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, nrgjeff said: Might be a double barrel structure to the same storm system. Wouldn't be any fun without energy transfer questions, lol! Just one big party. Now, all we need is a low in the Lakes. Oh, wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12z GEFS definitely supports the 132 event....then another sits right behind it. As Jeff stated, there is likely some energy transfer from the Mid-West to easter North Carolina and then it stalls. The mean for the first one is roughly 2-3" in NE TN. Knoxville is 1-2". But the 16 day mean is still growing. It looks like the third storm is an even better chance...the best of the bunch, which is the one after the 132 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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