Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Jeff was talking about March in an earlier post.  So, I dug around to find some trends for March as I have just been using the Weeklies and the EPS/GEFS globals.  I use this model on rare occasions, but I think it does a good job of encompassing what the GFS/GEF has been showing for a couple of days regarding the d10-15 pattern evolution...and where the American models might be headed.  It has averaged seven days worth of runs for March.  The more recent runs are even colder.  However, you can see the two bocks and the "trough" (edit...no idea why that said drought originally) that develops from the Rockies eastward.  Now that pattern could potentially push storms under the block.  That is a very good look for late winter storms.  No guarantees.  HOWEVER, I really want to see the Euro suite on board before getting too excited. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Interesting 18z NAM 3k and 12k run for E Kentucky and SW VA folks.  Seemed to look (admittedly only one other run to go off of) colder and some post-frontal Rain-Snow mix. Very distinct front depicted on precip maps Friday AM - PM dropping through East TN (as seen on Tropical Tidbits).  12z ARW-2 shows a similar front, but even colder at the same time in Missouri, but that is at the end of its run, 48 hours.  18z RGEM shows the front, but not much after it passes in the way of snow. Not trying to get anyone's hopes up, (it is only one run of the NAM that sent me down this rabbit hole after all) but at least it's something that resembles winter wx for some in the forum area in the near term to maybe keep an eye on if for nothing else than to shake things up a bit.  

I should add this is not the possible larger storm that the folks in the MA are talking about, but an initial front that that wave will ride along later in the weekend. 

[Carvers Gap]

I like this Bob Chill quote which I am paraphrasing....the -NAO may not be a huge cold producer but it may be a big storm producer.  I think that is an interesting trade-off.  Like I said earlier...do we take our chances w a cold/dry -EPO or w a -NAO that allows storms to slow and cold to catch?  No big changes on the GEFS.  Huge block developing.  The EPS is not as enthusiastic today w heights dropping over the EC.  I suspect it gets on board, but still will not call this a trend...though several individuals showed quite cold temps in the East from d13-15.  It is possible, and even likely, that what verifies is getting washed out which is normal on an ensemble.  Have a good evening.  

[Carvers Gap]

Nice blocking still being depicted on the global ensembles, but overnight most were in agreement that the retrograding trough will have difficulty pushing the ridge out the way over the EC. Is it right?  No idea.  In the same way that I would not call the trough a trend...not calling this one either.   There should be a trough on the EC IMO, but again, that is not a given.  Still plenty of time to for multiple other solutions to be depicted.  I do not trust the ensembles in the LR right now, more so than usual.  So, given the setup, I am still going with a trough(or at least repeating cold fronts) and see if numerical modeling moves to that idea.  The problem w d10-15 is that it is really an average.  Right now the model is telling us that the average is a ridge(though not terribly strong) on the EC.  It is possible that it is a very stormy pattern but warmer than average...which can still snow.  

[Carvers Gap]

Basically by d10-15 there is an omega type block over NA w the base being buckled just enough to allow a ridge over the eastern third of the country.  I suspect that buckle is eventually flattened, but just no way to know.  That buckle drops the cold out West.   Time will tell if it is correct.  The Greenland block was not well modeled a few days ago.  It is there now consistently on modeling.  If that block forms, the models "may" begin to sniff out details which would include a cold shots into the EC....definitely not there yet.

[Carvers Gap]

Much better look on the 12z GEFS...big improvement as a whole.  This is speaking of the squashing of the SER late in the run.  Target date for much of this is Feb 26 or slightly later.....

[nrgjeff]

Soft underbelly of the Omega block ridge shows weeks 3-4 of the Euro weeklies. 500 mb weakness is shown over the Southeast. Is it right and could we make something happen? I suppose we'll learn the answers in a couple weeks. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 500 pattern as Jeff mentions is workable during weeks 3-4(maybe longer but at that point we are into the second half of March and we are fighting climo big time then).  It is interesting because the Weeklies are very similar to the 18z GEFS...the GEFS seems about 3-5 days quicker than the EPS and the Weeklies seemed to confirm that.  But it now looks like modeling is coming into line with the -NAO doing the dirty work and POSSIBLY(not certain by any means) forcing cold underneath it.  If so, the point of confluence might be along the EC as bowling ball lows slide under the block and could phase.  The great thing about a big block is that is slows the pattern and things can phase much easier, and they have less room to cut to our west.  IMO...just speculating...I think the potential for storms along the EC is growing during the aforementioned time frame.   I think w/ the Weeklies and GEFS now showing cold backing to varying degrees into the EC, that is probably realistic to talk about.  Now the degree to which it backs is up for big debate.  The NAO will be negative (sometimes deeply negative) from Feb 23rd through mid-March.  The AO mirrors it.  The PNA remains negative during that time and EPO positive.  I guess one could look that two different ways....trough west OR a nationwide trough.  I am leaning towards a nationwide trough from the Rockies to the EC for weeks 3-4.  So, looks like we might have a window.  It would appear that the SSW has been a plus in that it reshuffled a really bad looking deck into something that is workable.  Anyway, still plenty of room for significant changes...Some years March is just empty of potential.  This year has significantly more potential.   

I have seventy degree temps and howling winds at 8:30PM in mid-February w a potential block on the way.   Going to flag this post and maybe reveal later why I make that weather observation....

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS and 12z CMC operational are moving to really good looks.  The 12z CMC is the fastest of the bunch.  

[jaxjagman]

Mid range to long don't look that great.850MB temps are 10C+.SER is relentless.

 

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z FEB16
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 16-FEB                  65.9    57.7    23008   0.00    0.00      97    
FRI 18Z 16-FEB  66.1    47.8    48.1    43.1    35008   0.12    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 17-FEB  48.1    44.3    44.3    38.0    00006   0.03    0.00      85    
SAT 06Z 17-FEB  44.3    41.0    40.9    35.2    04004   0.00    0.00      83    
SAT 12Z 17-FEB  41.7    40.1    41.5    35.3    11004   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 17-FEB  43.9    40.9    43.8    43.5    07001   0.88    0.00     100    
SUN 00Z 18-FEB  45.4    43.8    44.8    44.4    26004   0.28    0.00      99    
SUN 06Z 18-FEB  45.5    43.3    43.2    42.3    35006   0.00    0.00      91    
SUN 12Z 18-FEB  43.2    37.6    37.6    36.8    07004   0.00    0.00      59    
SUN 18Z 18-FEB  53.8    37.4    54.3    37.9    14006   0.00    0.00      93    
MON 00Z 19-FEB  60.7    54.3    56.4    46.9    18007   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 19-FEB  56.9    54.5    55.5    54.7    18008   0.03    0.00      98    
MON 12Z 19-FEB  59.2    55.5    59.2    58.4    18010   0.02    0.00      99    
MON 18Z 19-FEB  66.3    59.2    66.5    59.6    19013   0.01    0.00      98    
TUE 00Z 20-FEB  67.7    65.0    65.1    58.6    18009   0.02    0.00     100    
TUE 06Z 20-FEB  65.4    63.5    64.7    59.3    18011   0.00    0.00      97    
TUE 12Z 20-FEB  65.5    62.4    62.2    59.0    18010   0.00    0.00      70    
TUE 18Z 20-FEB  73.1    61.7    73.3    57.9    18013   0.00    0.00      93    
WED 00Z 21-FEB  74.9    69.0    68.7    58.7    18008   0.00    0.00      79    
WED 06Z 21-FEB  68.9    66.7    66.8    61.1    18011   0.00    0.00      97    
WED 12Z 21-FEB  67.1    66.0    66.2    63.0    19009   0.00    0.00      96    
WED 18Z 21-FEB  73.5    66.1    73.5    63.9    21012   0.02    0.00      52    
THU 00Z 22-FEB  75.5    61.5    61.2    61.0    01005   0.34    0.00     100    
THU 06Z 22-FEB  61.2    56.3    56.5    56.3    07003   0.69    0.00     100    
THU 12Z 22-FEB  61.2    56.2    60.6    60.1    20004   0.50    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 22-FEB  62.0    57.6    58.2    57.6    34005   0.13    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 23-FEB  58.3    52.7    52.8    52.4    01005   0.07    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 23-FEB  54.5    52.5    54.6    54.3    10003   0.06    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 23-FEB  59.9    54.6    59.7    59.1    18008   0.00    0.00      86    
FRI 18Z 23-FEB  74.3    59.4    74.4    59.8    19013   0.00    0.00      93    
SAT 00Z 24-FEB  76.1    70.5    70.3    57.5    18008   0.00    0.00      65    
SAT 06Z 24-FEB  70.3    65.5    65.5    56.9    19009   0.00    0.00      46    
SAT 12Z 24-FEB  65.6    62.4    62.5    59.0    20010   0.03    0.00      96    
SAT 18Z 24-FEB  65.4    62.0    64.4    62.9    21009   0.13    0.00      99    
SUN 00Z 25-FEB  67.6    64.2    64.3    62.0    22006   0.03    0.00      98    
SUN 06Z 25-FEB  64.3    60.3    60.3    60.0    33002   0.05    0.00     100    
SUN 12Z 25-FEB  60.4    57.3    57.2    56.7    04006   0.11    0.00     100    
SUN 18Z 25-FEB  57.9    56.1    58.0    56.0    07006   0.07    0.00     100    
MON 00Z 26-FEB  61.4    57.9    59.5    58.9    16005   0.12    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 26-FEB  59.7    58.2    58.8    58.4    18007   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 26-FEB  61.9    58.7    61.8    61.4    18007   0.11    0.00     100    

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting fact....the GFS forecast the SSW from 16 days out.  Might be time to give the model its due.  The Euro is still king inside of five days, but this was impressive at that range.  This winter the GEFS from d10-15 has equaled the EPS in many circumstances.  The 12z EPS looked like it was coming into line w the Weeklies and the GEFS.  The actual pattern that could yield winter weather is still just over two weeks out.  Most models are just barely getting this time frame into range.  I am not so worried about temps as I am where the block sets up.  The ensembles are very washed out due to warm solutions.  If that block sets up over the Davis Straits w ridging in the eastern Pacific, it "should" create a full latitude trough over the lower 48.  It may not be an Arctic outbreak, but it would certainly create the potential for coast snowstorms.  Still window-shopping at this range, but good signs for sure.  The actual evolution to a -NAO is inside of d10 which begins as east based.  It is forecast to retrograde after that.  Decent trends at the 12z suite though certainly nothing for certain.  I grew up knowing that warm temps in February were usually precursors to a cold March.  Not always true though.  Anyway, very interesting pattern might be ahead.  I should add that the 12z GEPS is on board as well.  Once in place, so steal a term from PSU in the MA forum...things may begin to cascade.  We shall see.  He also added that nothing would surprise him.  Same here.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

So..... does anyone have any knowledge of how AAM drives 500 mb patterns? The reason I ask this is that there was some information posted in the MA forum about how "poleward -AAM" was promoting a trend for a more +PNA which would of course have implications with the hoped for and modeled, west based -NAO.  

There was a link in AmericanWx for the following datasets and info: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/aam.rean.shtml  but the person maintaining this has retired, so it's no longer available. 

Trying to find a way to contribute to this discussion since others (above) have done a good job laying out some of the overall pattern possibilities. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

So..... does anyone have any knowledge of how AAM drives 500 mb patterns? The reason I ask this is that there was some information posted in the MA forum about how "poleward -AAM" was promoting a trend for a more +PNA which would of course have implications with the hoped for and modeled, west based -NAO.  

There was a link in AmericanWx for the following datasets and info: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/aam.rean.shtml  but the person maintaining this has retired, so it's no longer available. 

Trying to find a way to contribute to this discussion since others (above) have done a good job laying out some of the overall pattern possibilities. 

 

I think higher AAM tends to signal more of an eastern trough....but I am out on a limb. Not an area of expertise for me.  Grabbed this from JB’s video this AM.  Low AAM correlates with La Niña and a SE ridge.  Even a neutral AAM will be a bonus...not so currently.   Right now the PNA looks very negative and may stay that way w a slight rise to neutral in a week or two.  Here is a good article from Ventrice a couple of years ago.

https://business.weather.com/blog/atmospheric-angular-momentum-to-drop-this-week-the-driving-mechanism-and-future-implications-this-summer

[jaxjagman]

17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think higher AAM tends to signal more of an eastern trough....but I am out on a limb. Not an area of expertise for me.  Grabbed this from JB’s video this AM.  Low AAM correlates with La Niña and a SE ridge.  Even a neutral AAM will be a bonus...not so currently.   Right now the PNA looks very negative and may stay that way w a slight rise to neutral in a week or two.  Here is a good article from Ventrice a couple of years ago.

https://business.weather.com/blog/atmospheric-angular-momentum-to-drop-this-week-the-driving-mechanism-and-future-implications-this-summer

Try this Carver

 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gwo_maproom_new.htm

[jaxjagman]

And here is the link to that map JB posted,it updates daily,but expect to see changes in the long range,just saying it changes daily especially in the long range.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

 

 

[jaxjagman]

I'm gonna take a stab at this and might be wrong.But looking at the GFS,Euro and EPS they all show this around day 10 a ridge into Korea,with a trough going into Mongolia and lower heights off the Japan coast.This should set up a potential Tn Valley ridge into the 1st week of March(5th or 6th?) that moves east and the Atlantic low being shown should be further east than what is being shown.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Thanks for the information Jax and Carvers.  Will definitely look around those sites to try to understand it more. Just glancing at what y'all have shown it looks to be a much bouncier beast than trying to follow the MJO, an index that at least sometimes seems to follow a more regular course. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Also, 6z GFS at absolute fantasy range finally shows one of those weird cutoffs the MA folks have been talking about possibly showing up if the -NAO block verifies. Doesn't do much for us and it is at the end of the run. In NO WAY suggesting something at 360 hours+ verifies but it's just nice to see something on an OP run that's different from what I've seen all month. I only mention this because maybe its the very beginning of what will lead for some possible threats more local than the strat and NAO states(not that I haven't enjoyed those). More of a tangible, overall pattern change suggestion on an OP.  10 days to go until it even approaches manageable fantasy range, so definitely not getting my hopes up anytime soon.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Also, 6z GFS at absolute fantasy range finally shows one of those weird cutoffs the MA folks have been talking about possibly showing up if the -NAO block verifies. Doesn't do much for us and it is at the end of the run. In NO WAY suggesting something at 360 hours+ verifies but it's just nice to see something on an OP run that's different from what I've seen all month. I only mention this because maybe its the very beginning of what will lead for some possible threats more local than the strat and NAO states(not that I haven't enjoyed those). More of a tangible, overall pattern change suggestion on an OP.  10 days to go until it even approaches manageable fantasy range, so definitely not getting my hopes up anytime soon.  

I think it is high likely that a pattern change is on its way. With that big -NAO up there...the pattern will be forced to change.  What changes that brings are certainly up for debate.  The actually moving/squashing of the SER is now inside of d10.  It begins around 228.  The Weeklies and the 6z GEFS are very similar in their progression of the pattern.  Big bowling ball lows are often common during late winter and are especially potent when forced under blocking.  The blocking often forces confluence near the EC because everything is forced south.  As for the cutoff, many are comparing the 500 look to March of 1962.  I don't know...that is a huge comparison.  The 500 pattern does look familiar and is definitely ripe for a big EC storm if it verifies.  But those big storms are so rare.  That was a huge cutoff(not necessarily a bowling ball) by a Miller B setup...I think.  Very rare to see a storm just sit and spin like that one.  Maybe the pattern upcoming will allow an eddy for that to happen.  I am much more interested in bowling ball lows(Hickory discussed them in relation to the earlier cold pattern and NC snow) or a phase of the Miller A/hybrid variety.  This could form and work across the base of the omega block.  Maybe they are not technically a bowling ball....but under Omega blocks, energy can take a long road under neat the block and very limited in their ability to climb until the EC.  With the area of confluence potentially over the EC and the energy being forced to slow down due to the block...that allows the northern stream(s) to interact w the southern piece of energy.  They are looking for a Miller B setup...we are looking for a hybrid or Miller A.  But even a big Miller B may do the work later for us as it would lock the trough in the east for a couple of weeks IMO.  Now, don't get me wrong...that is a potential very storm look showing up in about 10-12 days.  I try to contain my enthusiasm so as not to stir the pot...but definitely a pattern with some potential upcoming.  After several lackluster March's...this one is much different.  But at this range, things can and will change.  

[Carvers Gap]

On a sided note, you can loop the NH polar view and see the two polar vortexes spinning.  Pretty cool.  They do reform later in the run, but the dirty work as been done.  Speaking of the troposphere. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

49 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

On a sided note, you can loop the NH polar view and see the two polar vortexes spinning.  Pretty cool.  They do reform later in the run, but the dirty work as been done.  Speaking the troposphere. 

Also interesting to see that this SER has been trending to more amped next week.  I wonder if that is a reflection of the real-time strat data causing adjustments in how the models handle the troposphere's mid levels?  Or maybe it's a just Nina and February. Maybe both? Maybe the NAO will trend the same as we get closer? Maybe this more potent SER will change how the TPV unravels over the next 10 days or so? 

 

Also going to try and remember how all this unfolds for future SSW and SPV splits.  The more immediate effects in this particular case may be record warmth next week. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Also interesting to see that this SER has been trending to more amped next week.  I wonder if that is a reflection of the real-time strat data causing adjustments in how the models handle the troposphere's mid levels?  Or maybe it's a just Nina and February. Maybe both? Maybe the NAO will trend the same as we get closer? Maybe this more potent SER will change how the TPV unravels over the next 10 days or so? 

 

Also going to try and remember how all this unfolds for future SSW and SPV splits.  The more immediate effects in this particular case may be record warmth next week. 

The SER connects to the Greenland block.  That is pretty rare air IMO.  Some analogs for that (and the progression thereafter) are VERY interesting indeed.  I think SSWs are so individual in nature.  Some help and some make the pattern worse.  Flip a coin almost, but -NAOs are common w SSWs but by no means a guarantee. There is a reason folks like SSWs on the EC.  Ha! The 12z GEFS is a money pattern if it were to verify.  Looking around Feb26 - Mar1 as go time...likely right around March 1st but some runs have been quicker.  Growing slightly more confident(if one can be confident in anything after d10) that we have a very nice window for an EC storm(s) between Mar1-14.

[jaxjagman]

Euro and GEFS are having a tough time with the MJO.Euro did keep it out of the COD today tho  and don't go into the COD until phase 3,but still looks like it could be on the fast side.MJO into the first week of March could be in India into the IO

[Carvers Gap]

The GEFS and GEPS erode the SER and decouple if from the Greenland block.  The EPS is getting there but is slower in its evolution.  But all get there now w BN temps and/or heights over the EC.  The models which have been less than consistent are now very consistently show a -NAO.  The 6z GEFS is now well BN w temps over the EC after d12.  The Euro op now depicts a strong -NAO retrograding into the Davis Straits between d8-10.  That means that the potential -NAO pattern is now almost within one week, w cold taking 5-7 days to follow.  The end of February and beginning of March still looks like a good target date.  An EC storm could speed things up...but at the moment, March 1st-3rd looks about right and moving up in time with each run - meaning the models are no longer pushing back the onset.  If the Euro is playing tricks in the SW, it could align w the GEFS timing.  But sometimes the GEFS can be a bit quick.  Anyway, no big changes.  Here is a tweet from Ryan Maue  who has a graphic that illustrates how negative the NAO is being modeled on the Euro.  The models, after the SSW event, seem to be getting a handle on things now.  We have been discussing the -NAO almost ad nauseam since the SSW began to appear on modeling a couple of weeks ago... Now, it takes several more days after the look below for the EC to see impacts.  As many have warned, a -NAO is not magic and sometimes they do not help.  But given what we were seeing on LR modeling several weeks ago w/ winter essentially being over....this has been an nice and interesting reshuffle.  Would really like to see a couple of big storms to track before winter ends....Until then, enjoy your record warm temps!  @weathertree4u, we can now officially raise concern about plants budding out!  

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Any thoughts on how long the -NAO might hang around when and if it gets set up? I remember you mentioning a few cycles ago the Euro weeklies seemed, at that time, to want to extend winter into early April and I saw Bob Chill mention what I think he called a "legitimate blocking pattern" that might last up to 30 days once it sets up? I may not be remembering all of this correctly, maybe we get something even after mid March? Maybe at least something I can chase above 5000 feet?  I feel like climo is probably no bueno after second week of March (maybe earlier here in Knoxvegas), but maybe mid to late March and early April are go big (as in dynamic system,) or go home periods anyway if you want anything at all. 

On second thought maybe I should just be happy this -NAO seems to be looking good and take it one thing at a time  

[Carvers Gap]

The Weeklies pulled a head fake about three weeks ago....then flipped warm almost the next run and held that look.  Seems like there was a warm run maybe a couple runs before that, though.  After the flip warm...I maintained that winter would return sometime between Feb20-March10.  Was that correct?  TBD.  I leaned warm for a couple of days, and then just felt like winter would return at some point...and felt like the -QBO might have a say.  When we began talking about a return of winter w the SSW being part of the equation, I can think of no model that showed a return to cold as the Weeklies completely abandoned any 500 pattern that would support it. I still have doubts that this pattern stays cold all of March(though that is certainly on the table now), because Nina climo really does not support a cold March...BUT it is possible that we are seeing some early transitions back to a neutral state given the SOI tanking.  So it may be that evolving climo actually would support a cold March.  Either way, when folks like Bob Chill and I (not conversing w each other...two different forums) were having those discussions, the SSW was but a twinkle in our eye.  Now, Bob Chill is a guru...I am not even close to knowing what he does.  Not even a fraction.  The entire northern hemispheric pattern has been completely upended.  At this point, all conversations prior to SSW being legitimately modeled as a realistic pattern are null and void.   -NAOs are notoriously fickle to predict in both duration and onset.  I do think once the NAO is established, it will have some staying power...but that is based on past NAOs where they are just tough to move once in place.   As for climo, I think all of March is game(not implying wall-to-wall cold...just that it can snow during the entire month) w/ obviously the last two weeks seeing quickly dwindling opportunities.  The biggest thing is timing where it becomes much more advantageous for it to snow at night....sun angle is a bear at this latitude with every passing day.   Right now, I am really interested to see how the -NAO sets up the pattern in the lower 48 and that is not a lock...but chances are growing that BN heights are going to show over the East.   Super interesting pattern on tap.  But like I said, major warmth is also on tap for the next ten days or so.   One of the great things about weather, chaos is always an unknown but ever present variable and that makes this a fun hobby.   If this pattern verifies, we may go from record warmth to a base cold pattern.  Crazy, right?  I know one thing about weak Nina winters, they can have severe temperature swings.  This winter has delivered that at the very least.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Thanks for the response. Definitely going to enjoy the sunshine and warmth today and this week and see how things look in seven days!

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Thanks for the response. Definitely going to enjoy the sunshine and warmth today and this week and see how things look in seven days!

Yeah.  The 12z GEFS is a pretty strong signal for cold and stormy weather after d10.  PNA ridge popping in conjunction w a Baffin Island block and trough in the East.  Really wanting to see the EPS get on board though...so keeping my excitement in check.  The ensembles are not terribly far apart.  It is a timing thing more than anything.  I think the key is getting a west based -NAO into place.  If we get that, I think we see other pieces fall into place.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS looks good.  Looks very, very similar now to the 12z GEFS.  It has a few super warm individuals that are skewing the run late.  Plenty of cold on those individuals.   Great looking pattern for early March.  Strong signals now for a stormy and cold early March on both ensembles.

[AMZ8990]

Day Lilly's are starting to bloom in my neck of the woods.  The wheels of spring are trying to start turning it appears.