Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Also, the 3kNAM and CMC at 12z show a decent little front end thump w the Sunday system before changing to rain in NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Quote South Drought Summary Eastern portions of the South region were wet, with two or more inches of rain falling from southeast Texas, across southern Louisiana, to southern Mississippi. D0-D1 were pulled back in those states and, in central Louisiana, D2 was trimmed where the rainfall was above normal for the week. Half an inch to an inch of precipitation fell across part of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and most of Tennessee, but it was still below normal for the week. As a result, D1-D2 expanded in Mississippi and Tennessee. The Bristol Tri-Cities Airport station in Tennessee has received only 3.73 inches of precipitation since November 11, 2017, which is the driest November 11-January 30 period on record. From U.S. Drought Monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 February only: MJO phase 7 with +global wind is warm. MJO phase 8 with -global wind is warm. Unfortunately the global wind flips as the MJO moves. If true, winter is over. OK maybe this is my last post. We should pin the 2018 Severe Weather thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: I have zero interest in the Super Bowl event down in Chattanooga. Rainy days are great for watching football on TV. The SSWE is forecast to impact Eurasia, which is no surprise. Peer reviewed research shows a correlation for Eurasia but little to none for NA. Weeklies (CFS/ECMWF) today are in good agreement that China will celebrate the Spring Festival too early this year. SF is even late due to the lunar calendar, but China looks cold anyway. I will assume the European weeklies are right for the USA. This is my last post of the thread barring another major flip. Look for me in Severe Weather 2018. OK,bring on severe season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 GEFS continues the big ridge in the west that turns the flow NW here, keeps the east below normal for the next 16 days. It's has been performing better than the Euro lately too. The Canadian Ens tries to pop the SE ridge on occasion, which hasn't worked all winter. But still generally keeps things below normal, especially after day 10. The AO is going negative as well. The NAO is positive, but it has been since November. It can help a lot regarding storm tracks, but it has snowed in areas that normally are desperate for the -NAO many times this year. Nor has the NAO effected the severity of the cold here. EPO is still expected to be negative over the new few weeks. We may not get snow, but I don't feel like we're done with cold. Last year winter was bad because it was a +EPO/-PNA combo. This year winter is cold because those two are opposite. I believe the NOAA forecast busted terribly for the DJF period. Cold NW and warm East. The North Pacific has ran the show again this winter to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 57 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: OK,bring on severe season.. Actually, she also notes in a tweet from this AM that there is large variability between events. Looks to me like a lobe of the PV splits into NA. I suspect that is not modeled correctly or downstream events. As I said above, there is another driver in the norther hemispheric circulation pattern. Just no way to know right now. But I suspect that is why we see almost polor opposite surface temps between the GEFS/GEPS vs Euro. No matter how it ends up, it is an interesting event IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Jax, that is a GREAT person to follow on Twitter. Going to add her to my people that I follow. I appreciate the share. That is goldmine of info. That 2009 event was not warm in the Upper South I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Outstanding link below for the work that Dr. Butler does. Has links to various aspects of each SSW event. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/index.php#browse Here it the 2009 surface temp graphic for that event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 36 minutes ago, JayCee said: From U.S. Drought Monitor. I have been saying for a couple of months now how dry it has been. This last system putting down .43 was the first system I can remember (in several months) that performed to the level it was supposed to... Most have been about 1/4 to 1/2 predicted QPF at verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: February only: MJO phase 7 with +global wind is warm. MJO phase 8 with -global wind is warm. Unfortunately the global wind flips as the MJO moves. If true, winter is over. OK maybe this is my last post. We should pin the 2018 Severe Weather thread. Almost hate to ask because I know you want to be done posting on this.... lol but how big is the data set (MJO phase 7 with +global wind). Same question for MJO phase 8 with -global wind? Is the correlation between what you have pointed out 100%, or near 100%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Sample size is limited. My main reasoning is the massive heat flux into the Mid Latitudes either way; and, SSW research (Eurasia not NA) going meh. 19 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: but how big is the data set (MJO phase 7 with +global wind). Same question for MJO phase 8 with -global wind? Is the correlation between what you have pointed out 100%, or near 100%? Signing off for the weekend. Enjoy the college basketball games and maybe the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 The Euro is back on board for a front end thump this weekend. Looks like 2-3 inches for the Northern Plateau and Northeast Tennessee and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Euro is back on board for a front end thump this weekend. Looks like 2-3 inches for the Northern Plateau and Northeast Tennessee and points north. I'd feel better (more confident) about it if I had gotten my 2" from last night.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: I'd feel better (more confident) about it if I had gotten my 2" from last night.... lol Oh, I have 0 confidence in it. Models can't get anything right this year at the surface. Hi-Res or not. Just flailing failure after flailing failure. But it shift back quite a bit south with it's frozen precip. Reallly lets parts of Eastern Kentucky have it, areas around Jackson get 3-5 inches. It had been rain into Ohio on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Just now, John1122 said: Oh, I have 0 confidence in it. Models can't get anything right this year at the surface. Hi-Res or not. Just flailing failure after flailing failure. Well, apparently I checked 0z. That's what was giving a chunk of east TN 2-3". 12z didn't have much, but did show the shadow of the valley nicely. Hope some of us get lucky and score a quick couple of inches before washing it away. At least we have successive fairly moisture laden events coming. We need rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Well, apparently I checked 0z. That's what was giving a chunk of east TN 2-3". 12z didn't have much, but did show the shadow of the valley nicely. Hope some of us get lucky and score a quick couple of inches before washing it away. At least we have successive fairly moisture laden events coming. We need rain. For whatever reason the Euro for a few days had been showing rain over us on the ptype but still increasing snow depth on the snow map. But today at least it seems to be showing snow falling to cause the snow depth increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I’m pulling hard for this one to show us something before we head back home Sunday morning. It was crazy how we drove down the mountain today and Gatlinburg and other lower elevations saw nothing. Maybe we can score a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Saw on MRX website for the history section at the bottom that on this date back in 1996, 4-12in of snow hit the valley with up to 24 in higher elevations. Interesting that we just had this minor snow north of 40 last night into this AM on the anniversary of one of our greatest storms! I guess we can reminisce about those days. Some day it will happen again. Probably not this winter, but someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Jax, that is a GREAT person to follow on Twitter. Going to add her to my people that I follow. I appreciate the share. That is goldmine of info. That 2009 event was not warm in the Upper South I don't think. Yeah,no doubt.I'm going to read some of her peer reviews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Interesting comment...let's see what (if any) impact this has on upcoming model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 euro and gfs showing drought buster over next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Man, mrwolf, I thought those were snow maps at first. LOL. Yes, and that is good news to see the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Man, mrwolf, I thought those were snow maps at first. LOL. Yes, and that is good news to see the rain. Lol I said drought busters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Lol I said drought busters Up here that would apply to rain and snow. Ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 NWS low for the night 36, currently 29.... Haven't seen any WAA today or this evening, no wind to speak of today or currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Well now up to 32, appears the cold imby is beginning to get eroded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 hours ago, ShawnEastTN said: Well now up to 32, appears the cold imby is beginning to get eroded. Only dropped to 41 here, have a fairly steady SE wind around 25 mph. Air is fairly dry still DP 14...hoping for some good steady rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Way out there so not the gospel or even close...but both the 0z EPS and 12z GEFS are showing substantial heigh rises over the Davis Straits. This morning's MJO reading on the ECMWF plot is clearly in phase 8. Will be interesting to see if/how the global winds change that correlation to the EC. The last third of February and first half of March could still be impacted by a -NAO. I matters less as spring goes on. Plenty of rain on the 6z GFS which is great news...and we will need to watch each system as they are placed in a way that if the first system deepens, it could drive the second south. And I hold firmly to this, if any of those have thunder...snow within two weeks of the event. Great win by the Vols last night, so my optimism has an extra boost. Who would have thought this team would have had 17 wins w quality wins over three different Power 5 conference opponents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Way out there so not the gospel or even close...but both the 0z EPS and 12z GEFS are showing substantial heigh rises over the Davis Straits. This morning's MJO reading on the ECMWF plot is clearly in phase 8. Will be interesting to see if/how the global winds change that correlation to the EC. The last third of February and first half of March could still be impacted by a -NAO. I matters less as spring goes on. Plenty of rain on the 6z GFS which is great news...and we will need to watch each system as they are placed in a way that if the first system deepens, it could drive the second south. And I hold firmly to this, if any of those have thunder...snow within two weeks of the event. Great win by the Vols last night, so my optimism has an extra boost. Who would have thought this team would have had 17 wins w quality wins over three different Power 5 conference opponents. It really was a good win,. It's nice to see Barnes and Co blow out teams that they should beat. 17-5 at this point of the year is awesome. I just like the way they all play too, nobody's gonna jump out at you as a superstar but they have 10-11 guys that can and do bring it every game. They've played a really tough schedule too so that has helped them a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Way out there so not the gospel or even close...but both the 0z EPS and 12z GEFS are showing substantial heigh rises over the Davis Straits. This morning's MJO reading on the ECMWF plot is clearly in phase 8. Will be interesting to see if/how the global winds change that correlation to the EC. The last third of February and first half of March could still be impacted by a -NAO. I matters less as spring goes on. Plenty of rain on the 6z GFS which is great news...and we will need to watch each system as they are placed in a way that if the first system deepens, it could drive the second south. And I hold firmly to this, if any of those have thunder...snow within two weeks of the event. Great win by the Vols last night, so my optimism has an extra boost. Who would have thought this team would have had 17 wins w quality wins over three different Power 5 conference opponents. Sounds good. I am real close to pulling the spring lever! Good too see the rain for sure. Dismayed that seems like we all lament the models each year how they are struggling with what ever pattern is present. Is this a ongoing thing? Seems like each year it is the same. Cannot even imagine what it must have been like to forecast the weather when I was a kid, back in the 70's, perhaps was easier back then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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