ShawnEastTN Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 18Z to 96 looks like either going to be a cutter, or Miller B. Edit... LOL SLP in Eastern Ohio at 102, then Transfer off the Delmarva. Miller B it be! Edit #2: The more I look at this I think we have to get storm #1 through before we will have SLP track nailed down. Seems when multiple storms like this come through over the years the preceding one effects modeling for the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Hate to beat a good model when it is down....but the EPS has been awful for the past two days. It has gone from showing a trough in the East to now depicting almost much above normal during the same time frame two days. It may be right....but it has been flip flopping all over the place with the depth of this eastern trough. If it is correct. spring will be here in less that two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The MJO is stopping stone cold in phase 7....the models will not put the trough in the East with that happening. HUGE corrections happening across the board on all models and ensembles due to this IMO. Not a good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The MJO is stopping stone cold in phase 7....the models will not put the trough in the East with that happening. HUGE corrections happening across the board on all models and ensembles due to this IMO. Not a good day. Got to love the weather! It will for sure change and, likely, this time next year, it will be nothing like it is today, just like today is nothing like - thank goodness - last year! Baby steps, perhaps in a year or two we will actually have a Winter in the TN Valley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Why even look at the models?!? They are flip flopping all over the place. I’m about to the point of just waking up and walking outside to determine what the weather is going to be for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Bizarre look on the GFS Op in the long range. Two giant 500mb height anomalies over both the east and the West. I don't recall ever seeing it quite like that before. The GFES is the exact opposite, 500mb Ridge in the west, flow from Alaska into the east. The OP has 70 degree temps at day 15, the ENS has temp in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnwxwatcher Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Still the best weather forecasting tool available. Always accurate! Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 All right...GEFS and GEPS have workable patterns. The EPS effectively ends the cold pattern in the East after d10. It is the most extreme in its retreat w the Eastern trough. It is a possibility. But...that level of warmth is not present on other models and I will just have to count on its usual bias of botching trough depth all winter. But...that post by isotherm is very relevant. A stall in phase 7 of the MJO is bad news and must be accounted for. We better hope that is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 46 minutes ago, tnwxwatcher said: Still the best weather forecasting tool available. Always accurate! Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk I bet it has pretty good verification scores! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 hours ago, weathertree4u said: Got to love the weather! It will for sure change and, likely, this time next year, it will be nothing like it is today, just like today is nothing like - thank goodness - last year! Baby steps, perhaps in a year or two we will actually have a Winter in the TN Valley! You know....I do really like where next winter is headed based on ENSO. That ENSO thread that Jax and Jeff run is pretty awesome. It is pretty unique and informative! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: You know....I do really like where next winter is headed based on ENSO. That ENSO thread that Jax and Jeff run is pretty awesome. It is pretty unique and informative! So have we gave up on the year already . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 40 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: So have we gave up on the year already . Nope...give me a sec and I am going to post something mildly interesting. I just like where next winter may be headed. My comments for the two seasons are decoupled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: So have we gave up on the year already . Never give up on the current year. Sure trends may be looking unfavorable but remember that for most of us all it takes is for the cards to fall just right with one system to hit (or even exceed for some folks) our average annual snowfall. Even if all we have left is cold chasing rain until the spring warm up, I won't count the year done until mid-March. Maybe it's just having lived through the blizzard of 93 after a relatively mild winter leading up to it in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 RRWT maps i posted a couple pages back shows the cold is coming back into the 2nd week of Feb.It did well with the last cold and also showed AN anamolies during this time frame and upcoming the next few days.We're just about to get into the cold phases of the MJO and with lag time would fit it.Plus the GFS,GEFS and JMA all are showing a SSW mid month,but who knows if it does or where it goes.All it seems to me is we'll have to sit back and hope for some cold transient air to catch something at the right time.I don't think winter is done but time is sure ticking away,one month away from Met spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I think the models are struggling w the western Pacific and the MJO and it is having HUGE impacts past d10. Here is a great quote from JB regarding where the Pacific is headed(good): "You don't flip the western Pacific without having a reaction, and chances are the modeling will sort itself out. Remember a few days ago, it looked like the 6-10 Day was milder on the Euro (which is now Days 3-7)." Always great to see a kvskelton post! I remember Mr. Bob cancelled winter one year...maybe I need to do that to bring us luck. I still owe him a Christmas card for that. Yeah, kvskelton, '93 was really similar to this relative to several very minor events and then...bam! Even had severe before the blizzard. So, never give up hope. (I do realize '93 was different in several other aspects). I am back to tempering expectations which is probably where we should be all of the time at this latitude. Now, mrwolfe, the interesting thing other than the JB quote is from time to time I am seeing the NAO fire along w the AO. That -QBO may yet throw us a bone. Who knows? I am about weathered out today, folks. Keep the fire burning. Great win by the Vols tonight. One step closer to the tournament. And the Olympics begin next weekend. So, plenty of good mojo to go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 44 minutes ago, kvskelton said: Never give up on the current year. Sure trends may be looking unfavorable but remember that for most of us all it takes is for the cards to fall just right with one system to hit (or even exceed for some folks) our average annual snowfall. Even if all we have left is cold chasing rain until the spring warm up, I won't count the year done until mid-March. Maybe it's just having lived through the blizzard of 93 after a relatively mild winter leading up to it in my area. kvskelton, you need to post more. Always high quality stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 57 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: kvskelton, you need to post more. Always high quality stuff! The guy is a forum treasure. We need to get a few beers in him and get him telling stories about past storms again, particularly blizzard of 93. Very high quality entertainment. Skelton's milkshakes bring all the posters to the yard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 KV, great to see a post from you man! Not a party till you arrive. Hope all is well with you and your family. Like Carver said, post more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 SREF plumes shot up randomly tonight, not sure what's up with that but is there hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The gfs at 90 has the lp almost in Cleveland ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 32 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: The gfs at 90 has the lp almost in Cleveland ohio We've not been able to buy a NW trend all winter and this thing has moved 1000 miles North in 2 days of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 10 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: kvskelton, you need to post more. Always high quality stuff! Thanks Carvers! You're too kind. Hope your neighborhood isn't too torn up by the "improvements" going on! Hope the family's doing well! Life has been extremely busy this season for me but I've been lurking the entire time. 9 hours ago, Stovepipe said: The guy is a forum treasure. We need to get a few beers in him and get him telling stories about past storms again, particularly blizzard of 93. Very high quality entertainment. Skelton's milkshakes bring all the posters to the yard! LOL Stove! I'm more a forum curiosity. Sorta like that grumpy old man sitting on the front porch waiting to yell at the neighborhood kids to get off his lawn! And I'd love another episode of "listen to the redneck talk about all the weather he's endured!" Reminds me of Quint talking about the shark attacks in Jaws. Hope all is well with you, Sir! 8 hours ago, tnweathernut said: KV, great to see a post from you man! Not a party till you arrive. Hope all is well with you and your family. Like Carver said, post more! Thanks Nut! Life's good, just busy! Hope y'all are doing well too! Now I'll quit hijacking the thread and head back to lurkdom for a bit. But I'm here! Always watching...from the shadows...waiting to pounce! Or report obs form SW of Kingsport. Thanks for all the great disco this season, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 EPS comparison....Feb 1 vs Jan 30 0z(day10-15 five day means). This is the subject of of my "frustration". Now, keep in mind this is comparing today's 0z and the 0z from two days ago....so this is not an exact comparison. The d15 today is a torch. Really crazy given most guidance was cold for February just a few runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Still wouldn't be surprised if some of you guys around TYS managed to squeak out an 1" or so overnight. 09z SREF finally corrected the higher outliers, with those members joining the rest grouped between 1"-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I'm stoked to just for the possibility to see big wet flakes, even if they don't accumulate. I enjoy watching it fall of course would rather have it stick if possible but is what it is. Though if HRRR is any indication if you are south of Morristown in the valley looks like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I have read and watched content that is bringing the Euro/EPS into question at the LR. JB is on of them...and he loves the Euro. I have no doubt that the Euro is scoring well inside of day 7. That is where it is inarguably the best model on the planet. But it has been all over the place during the past two weeks at range. And that is not to be unexpected due to how far out in time that is. That said, the EPS has been a steady hand this winter up until now. Below is the BOMM and ECMWF MJO forecasts. The Euro for days has been hitting a wall in phase 7 and would not move. That appears now to have been an error. Look at the BOMM. It makes it into phase 8 then moves very slowly. For those new to the MJO, the BOMM is produced by the Australians. That MJO look implies an extended bout of cold in the East. The JMA and CFS are in the phase 8 camp. The Euro is now taking a peak at phase 8 which looks like a correction in progress. Seems like the other day it made a least an attempt to stall in phase 7 and even weak attempt to reverse course. Also attached are the CPC ensembles and those are NOT warm signals. Big PNA ridge and a tanking AO mean very cold temps in the East. Add in the constant -EPO and continued hints of blocking near Greenland...there are very few signals that back the EPS going so warm. Now I hesitate to say the Euro is wrong. That is a great way to get burned in the hobby world. I has the nickname of Dr. No for a reason. It is the only model that can pull a coup consistently. If given the Euro vs the Field...that is a 50/50 call where I generally lean Euro. It has been adamant that the late weekend system would be nothing, and looks like that will verify against all other modeling. But here is the kicker, the EPS has been pretty bad between d10-d15. It has recently consistently been wrong in trough placement and the severity of cold. Is it this time? Maybe. There is certainly a lot of evidence to show that. The correction into phase 8 of its MJO probably means its LR forecasts are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 55 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: I'm stoked to just for the possibility to see big wet flakes, even if they don't accumulate. I enjoy watching it fall of course would rather have it stick if possible but is what it is. Though if HRRR is any indication if you are south of Morristown in the valley looks like rain. Now I've got Looks Like Rain from the Grateful Dead stuck in my head, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Stovepipe said: Now I've got Looks Like Rain from the Grateful Dead stuck in my head, thanks. Still dont believe we are done with winter chances this year; on a positive note, we do need the rain, good to see it is coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 We will see if the Euro goes to the GFS or the GFS comes to the Euro. Right now they each have a different primary low. The GFS transfers from Texas to the Great Lakes and the Great Lakes low takes over. The Euro had the primary low as the southern piece still last night. It was still too far north but was vastly different than the GFS. This is a 180 of the trends of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 GFS ENS have beaten the Euro ENS the last 30 days and really cleaned its clock the last 7 days (verifying 11-15 day forecasts). However I am not a fan of fighting the last war. This time a major MJO pulse is noted on satellite pushing east of the Dateline. Normally it is a cold phase, but we must remember wavelength. This huge a pulse should blow up a ridge over most of the Lower 48. Add a positive global wind and it just looks warm. Sorry 11-15 day game's up! Remember in 2011 February was supposed to get cold again. What happened? Early spring! OK a path to cold 16-20 or possibly 16-30 day exists. Eventually that MJO pulse will run its course. Already got new convection back in the Indian Ocean which could reset in a couple weeks. Also the stratospheric polar vortex is in jeopardy. Remember even a split or total destruction is not a slam dunk. Cold could be Eurasia, or simply just not happen. Frankly I'm tired of watching dustings. Actually I'm not jaded. Playing on House money after getting clippered well in Illinois back in Dec. Starting spring would be OK for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.