weathertree4u Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 17 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 06z has pushed the snow to Kentucky hope future runs bring it back this winter has been such a tease shows ya one thing then days later total opposite. Yea but we all know that we will be glued to the model when the 12Z runs. One thing is for sure, the general TN Valley area is set up pretty good for the next few weeks. Cannot complain about the general pattern. We all may not cash in on all systems but statistically speaking, we all have a much better chance than we usually do at this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just looking at the ensembles this AM...With the alignment of that trough, the pattern should open the door to several winter weather opportunities between now and the arrival of Spring in early March. Oddly, I like the GEFS a bit more. It "seems" to have settled down a bit now that we are in the actual winter season and not the transition. I do think the cold will penetrate further south than the Euro depicts and not as far as the GEFS. That puts the Tennessee Valley forum area in a decent spot as we are in the battle zone, feast or famine but chance for snow. I think as with the last system, the middle and western areas have a better opportunity. With no help in the Atlantic, the systems will not be slowing down much. The tendency will be for systems to dive south and slowly gain latitude allowing for the warm nose in the eastern Valley. But....a back-to-back system like this weekend can create a type of false blocking. The other positive, this looks like a very active pattern so there should be plenty to track. The mountains should do very well on this side and the North Carolina side. I think by late February, we will all be ready for Spring...either due to multiple misses in the East or just so many systems to track. I do think the eastern Valley cashes in during the last two weeks of the month. We do have less wiggle room now w the EPS clearly hinting that the cold will not perpetuate past the first week of March. That was not unexpected. And just taking a long look at next winter....I do like what I see from an ENSO standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Bring. On. The. Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I really have no reason to question the Plains first, South delay, on the cold since BN heights are forecast in parts of Western Canada week 2. This answers a question on the previous page. Week 2 is the first time I'm looking for a chance of snow in CHA. Friday has warm boundary layer written all over it. Then I'm afraid the Super Bowl system will flop like NFL ratings. Balance of week 2 the ensembles show the appropriate weather pattern with systems sliding through the interior Deep South, vs buried on the Gulf Coast. Phasing cold air appears to be the ever present challenge. What, do we live in the South or something? Still funny Mobile and Baton Rouge are killing CHA on snow totals. Week 3 clusters reveal a very warm minority report. Take it out and the remaining two are January cold repeat. That explains the dry QPF - totally buried flow with systems in Cuba. With that, the pressure is on Week 2. If Week 4 is the last cold week, perhaps WAA could bring winter precip. Then again, it could be rain. Given a bird in the hand, I hope Week 2 finally gets it done. Hey last night Kansas's worst free-throw shooter (but best FG%) hit two in a row during a rout of our in-state rival on their own court. Anything is possible including snow in CHA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Thanks for the answer, Jeff, and I appreciate the great analysis as usual. Also, I would like to echo tnweathernut's comments in the obs thread, and say that it is great to see new posters on board. The forum is definitely more active and has grown this winter. This thread is probably will probably finish as the biggest thread in the forum's history in terms of views, replies, and regional representation. I must not have looked carefully at the 0z EPS this AM...but yeah, I agree with Jeff that the d10-15 is looking prime(week 2 per his comments). Even after that the trough retreats a bit further north and is a broad shaped bowl vs yesterday's sharp trough that was too far to the East. I watched the JB video this AM. I think one good point that he brings-up is that the Euro operational and EPS have missed at times on the severity of the cold. I will add that it has done very well with precipitation forecasts IMO. The GEFS and EPS are not that far apart now as they really have converged towards each other...no model outright flipped. Now, the Euro did move to a more sprawling trough that the GEFS has shown for days vs the sharp trough on the EPS yesterday. The sharp trough depicted yesterday would have been bad news. IF(stress) this is the position of the trough, that is about as close to money in the bank as one can get at this latitude. I do think the EPS is slightly too warm in the medium and LR. I think the GEFS is overdoing the cold. If one takes the average of the two, great setup at 500 and at 2m. I am definitely more bullish than I was a week ago. The pattern is coming into better focus. And I agree that temps could be marginal for some events...and yeah, we live in the Upper South so what is new. I have my doubts that we dry out, though. I think this will be a stormy month in terms of precipitation and winter weather. After thinking about the Weeklies overnight, I tend to agree that Spring will arrive right on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just digging around looking at some other forum discussions....Here are a couple. Not all great news...but we are not looking for great news, just correct news. Click on the white text found inside of the gray header for comments I am referencing. That will open their comments. Good reads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 This is a reference that I just found which adequately describes some of the differences between the EPS and GEFS regarding the depth and positioning of the trough. If we take the middle ground, that is a great set-up. Interesting that the SE ridge has been verifying in a "iffy at best" way on the Euro. Eric Webb ( @webberweather is his Twitter handle) noted the SE ridge was often not verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 12z gfs looking alot better and stronger then past 2 runs but stays to warm edit cmc 12z is showing snow state wide at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Stronger storm further north with more WAA. If this thing is going to track that far north it needs to be a weak storm, or we need the cold to be more entrenched ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 This map shows basically every warm nose and downslope susceptible area in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: This map shows basically every warm nose and downslope susceptible area in the region. cmc gives whole state snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Don Sutherland is worth reading up in the NYC Region. One would be surprised how much NYC needs in common with us, compared to say Boston where snow can fall with a +NAO. NYC, like us, really needs big time blocking to make it work. NYC also can't have cutters, or coastal heartbreak. He likes sliders too, believe it or not! Carvers I believe offers as good of commentary as anyone. At least tries, when I'm just dropping cynical bombs. I tried to actually add value today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Don Sutherland is awesome. Will scoot up there and read his commentary as well. Thanks, Jeff. What I like about our forum is that we will kick around all sides of an idea....I think folks do a nice job here of providing mounds of really good, pertinent information. Too many great posters to name...and I would forget one if I tried. I definitely enjoy opening up the threads to see what has been added...good news or bad news. I am really most proud to see how much our forum has grown...number of posters, quality posts, regions represented. When we first started, there were just a handful of us. Now, I can hop on here and read information that ranges from southwest VA to Arkansas. Now, to the GFS and GEPS 12z suite. Hard not to be excited about those model runs if you like winter. Plenty of energy running along the Arctic boundary. That is what I envisioned during late Dec/early Jan that never happened. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you...is applicable you replace bear with boundary. Sometimes you get the boundary, sometimes the boundary gets you. For some of these storms, we will be north of the boundary have winter wx, sometimes south with rain. But I have always read that if you want better accumulations, you have to be on or just north of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 That mid-to-deep south low on Sunday might actually perform well in overall QPF. Most have underperformed significantly this Winter for NETN/SWVA. Concerned of a premature changeover to rain or graupelfest though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z JAN30 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) TUE 12Z 30-JAN 26.9 15.5 00007 0.00 0.00 92 TUE 18Z 30-JAN 33.3 26.3 33.4 16.0 35005 0.00 0.00 47 WED 00Z 31-JAN 35.7 28.2 28.2 17.7 05003 0.00 0.00 52 WED 06Z 31-JAN 28.2 24.3 24.8 15.9 03001 0.00 0.00 29 WED 12Z 31-JAN 26.8 23.6 26.7 14.4 18004 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 31-JAN 48.1 26.6 48.4 18.6 22009 0.00 0.00 0 THU 00Z 01-FEB 51.5 42.4 42.2 22.3 20007 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 01-FEB 42.2 39.4 39.4 25.1 21007 0.00 0.00 85 THU 12Z 01-FEB 41.9 38.2 41.9 35.5 22007 0.00 0.00 94 THU 18Z 01-FEB 49.7 42.0 49.7 41.6 23008 0.00 0.00 91 FRI 00Z 02-FEB 50.5 46.6 46.6 44.4 22005 0.05 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 02-FEB 46.9 34.8 34.7 34.5 05003 0.36 0.08 100 FRI 12Z 02-FEB 34.7 27.8 27.5 23.8 35008 0.08 0.06 70 FRI 18Z 02-FEB 31.6 23.5 31.7 9.3 35005 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 03-FEB 33.4 25.8 25.5 7.5 02005 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 03-FEB 25.6 19.3 20.6 6.6 10002 0.00 0.00 97 SAT 12Z 03-FEB 25.0 20.7 25.0 7.1 09002 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 18Z 03-FEB 40.2 24.9 40.3 14.5 25002 0.00 0.00 98 SUN 00Z 04-FEB 41.2 34.7 34.7 22.5 15004 0.00 0.00 99 SUN 06Z 04-FEB 36.8 34.4 36.3 20.6 18004 0.00 0.00 98 SUN 12Z 04-FEB 36.8 33.1 34.2 33.2 11002 0.28 0.06 100 SUN 18Z 04-FEB 37.0 33.5 36.6 35.0 03003 0.47 0.19 100 MON 00Z 05-FEB 37.5 34.4 34.4 32.8 01005 0.03 0.01 95 MON 06Z 05-FEB 34.4 31.7 31.7 29.8 01005 0.00 0.00 93 MON 12Z 05-FEB 31.7 26.8 26.7 24.1 00005 0.01 0.01 98 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JAN30 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) TUE 12Z 30-JAN 26.0 17.8 35004 0.00 0.00 53 TUE 18Z 30-JAN 35.2 25.5 35.4 18.2 34003 0.00 0.00 94 WED 00Z 31-JAN 38.0 33.3 33.5 21.1 10001 0.00 0.00 54 WED 06Z 31-JAN 33.5 27.6 28.4 19.6 17005 0.00 0.00 8 WED 12Z 31-JAN 30.6 28.4 30.7 19.4 18009 0.00 0.00 1 WED 18Z 31-JAN 49.5 30.7 49.8 27.0 19011 0.00 0.00 0 THU 00Z 01-FEB 53.8 47.6 47.4 29.9 19011 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 01-FEB 47.4 44.4 44.4 33.1 20010 0.00 0.00 5 THU 12Z 01-FEB 46.6 44.0 46.6 42.5 21009 0.00 0.00 100 THU 18Z 01-FEB 49.7 46.6 49.7 45.4 23007 0.01 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 02-FEB 49.8 40.1 39.8 39.1 35010 0.13 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 02-FEB 39.8 30.4 30.1 24.5 34009 0.08 0.01 78 FRI 12Z 02-FEB 30.1 19.8 19.6 0.4 35007 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 18Z 02-FEB 29.6 18.8 29.8 4.3 35006 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 03-FEB 32.6 26.0 25.8 10.6 00003 0.00 0.00 15 SAT 06Z 03-FEB 25.8 23.4 24.6 10.5 12003 0.00 0.00 98 SAT 12Z 03-FEB 27.4 24.6 27.4 10.4 12002 0.00 0.00 98 SAT 18Z 03-FEB 40.8 27.4 41.1 15.7 16006 0.00 0.00 98 SUN 00Z 04-FEB 42.8 40.4 40.9 21.3 17007 0.00 0.00 99 SUN 06Z 04-FEB 41.3 37.0 37.0 34.7 20005 0.06 0.00 100 SUN 12Z 04-FEB 37.1 33.8 33.8 33.7 03003 0.34 0.13 100 SUN 18Z 04-FEB 38.8 33.8 38.9 33.2 00007 0.01 0.00 100 MON 00Z 05-FEB 40.6 37.1 37.0 27.7 36006 0.00 0.00 95 MON 06Z 05-FEB 36.9 31.1 30.9 24.1 36005 0.00 0.00 64 MON 12Z 05-FEB 30.9 24.3 24.2 16.0 35005 0.00 0.00 8 MON 18Z 05-FEB 35.3 23.0 35.5 19.1 33003 0.00 0.00 6 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z JAN30 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) TUE 12Z 30-JAN 25.3 14.3 32008 0.00 0.00 99 TUE 18Z 30-JAN 30.3 24.7 30.5 9.7 31008 0.00 0.00 7 WED 00Z 31-JAN 32.0 25.3 25.1 10.4 32006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 31-JAN 25.1 21.1 21.2 12.4 12003 0.00 0.00 93 WED 12Z 31-JAN 22.4 20.7 22.1 10.7 15002 0.00 0.00 11 WED 18Z 31-JAN 47.0 22.1 47.2 10.0 23006 0.00 0.00 7 THU 00Z 01-FEB 49.4 37.2 36.8 24.3 20004 0.00 0.00 5 THU 06Z 01-FEB 37.1 29.8 30.4 22.0 27002 0.00 0.00 90 THU 12Z 01-FEB 33.1 29.4 32.8 24.2 21002 0.00 0.00 97 THU 18Z 01-FEB 47.0 32.8 47.2 38.1 23009 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 02-FEB 48.0 42.1 42.6 42.2 26006 0.06 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 02-FEB 42.9 33.8 33.7 33.4 28005 0.30 0.08 100 FRI 12Z 02-FEB 33.7 26.4 26.0 23.0 31008 0.11 0.10 82 FRI 18Z 02-FEB 28.2 22.0 27.8 6.3 30006 0.00 0.00 1 SAT 00Z 03-FEB 29.4 20.8 20.5 4.8 31005 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 03-FEB 20.9 15.0 16.3 5.3 13003 0.00 0.00 91 SAT 12Z 03-FEB 20.3 16.2 19.7 5.1 08002 0.00 0.00 96 SAT 18Z 03-FEB 39.3 19.6 39.5 4.9 23001 0.00 0.00 99 SUN 00Z 04-FEB 41.3 32.4 32.3 14.1 14006 0.00 0.00 99 SUN 06Z 04-FEB 32.4 31.6 32.3 16.8 16005 0.01 0.01 98 SUN 12Z 04-FEB 33.3 30.4 31.0 28.6 03001 0.12 0.12 100 SUN 18Z 04-FEB 34.9 30.8 34.9 33.0 04001 0.39 0.34 100 MON 00Z 05-FEB 36.0 33.8 34.1 31.6 00004 0.04 0.02 98 MON 06Z 05-FEB 34.2 30.7 30.7 28.7 00004 0.00 0.00 99 MON 12Z 05-FEB 30.7 25.3 25.2 22.8 36003 0.01 0.01 98 MON 18Z 05-FEB 31.9 24.5 31.9 22.6 28002 0.00 0.00 90 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z JAN30 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) TUE 12Z 30-JAN 28.1 18.3 35006 0.00 0.00 33 TUE 18Z 30-JAN 37.6 27.4 37.9 18.7 35005 0.00 0.00 56 WED 00Z 31-JAN 40.3 35.0 34.8 21.4 01003 0.00 0.00 96 WED 06Z 31-JAN 34.8 27.4 28.0 20.0 21000 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 31-JAN 28.9 26.4 28.1 17.3 17006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 31-JAN 47.6 28.0 47.9 21.8 19008 0.00 0.00 0 THU 00Z 01-FEB 51.2 43.2 43.0 26.8 17008 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 01-FEB 43.0 37.8 37.7 28.3 18007 0.00 0.00 34 THU 12Z 01-FEB 42.3 37.2 42.3 37.6 19006 0.00 0.00 99 THU 18Z 01-FEB 52.0 42.3 51.9 43.2 22007 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 02-FEB 53.4 50.0 50.0 45.4 19005 0.01 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 02-FEB 50.4 37.4 37.2 37.0 01007 0.20 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 02-FEB 37.2 28.7 28.4 24.0 35008 0.04 0.00 42 FRI 18Z 02-FEB 36.8 25.9 37.1 10.6 35006 0.00 0.00 59 SAT 00Z 03-FEB 38.7 29.9 29.6 10.8 34005 0.00 0.00 1 SAT 06Z 03-FEB 29.6 24.5 24.7 9.7 04004 0.00 0.00 97 SAT 12Z 03-FEB 26.2 24.6 26.1 9.6 07002 0.00 0.00 96 SAT 18Z 03-FEB 42.1 26.1 42.4 14.5 16007 0.00 0.00 97 SUN 00Z 04-FEB 43.5 40.7 40.7 22.1 15007 0.00 0.00 99 SUN 06Z 04-FEB 40.7 37.0 36.8 30.6 16006 0.04 0.00 100 SUN 12Z 04-FEB 36.8 34.5 35.7 35.1 15002 0.52 0.00 100 SUN 18Z 04-FEB 39.5 35.6 39.5 38.5 02003 0.35 0.00 100 MON 00Z 05-FEB 40.2 38.1 38.1 36.4 01006 0.01 0.00 98 MON 06Z 05-FEB 38.1 34.4 34.3 30.6 34006 0.00 0.00 76 MON 12Z 05-FEB 34.3 30.0 30.0 26.8 35005 0.00 0.00 54 MON 18Z 05-FEB 41.9 29.4 42.1 25.3 35004 0.00 0.00 9 Sorry Jeff and Cha people But aren't far behind with that crap mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Euro shifted the snowfall south into Knoxville that run, appears to add 2-4 inches to the snow depth in the area with some isolated 5 inch additions. The mountains are going to get pounded if it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 System on the 6th is warm.plus a warm nose won't help out any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Late weekend system is a hanging by a thread situation... even north of 40. Would be nice to break the cold direction by a degree or two instead of the other (typical southern) way. Jax, man I really appreciate the text data! Love seeing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Echo tnweathernut in the appreciation of the euro text data Jax! Nice to see, much better than graphical in detail, and quick to see what you are working with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Positives to the Saturday night system is that it comes in over night. 850s and 925s are pretty good and surface temps are not the greatest in the low to mid 30s but can be worked with, especially since it's dark. If the timing changes or it gets any warmer, issues will pop up. But it seems like 90 percent of the time we actually get a decent amount of snow it's when temps are on the border line. We just live in an area where we are always on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 To add to John's thoughts also seems, generally speaking when we begin as snow before sunrise models tend to overdue warming after sunrise and its usually harder to switch back to rain than is generally modeled, especially if precip rates aren't too light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Thanks for the updates...i just pulled my head out of work to check in. Looks like a buffet of nice storms and nice paths for two weeks or so, really i cant recall seeing such a packed line up even if some may end up as cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Interesting Afternoon Disco from MRX on both storms talking about advisories for Thursday into Friday storm: Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 307 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)...Surface riding will build into the region overnight producing clear sky and calm winds. Good raditional cooling conditions are expected overnight. For Wednesday, surface riding will begin to move east of the area allowing for return flow of southerly winds by afternoon. The southerly winds and plenty of sunshine will moderate temperatures for tomorrow. For Wednesday night, southerly winds will begin to pull low-level moisture northward into the Tennessee valley with increasing clouds from south to north late. For Thursday, southerly winds will increase the isentropic lift ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Also, jet dynamics associated with the right entrance region will strengthen the fronto-genetic forcing along the front with precipitation increasing in coverage and intensity during the afternoon. For Thusday night, frontal boundary will move across the region during the evening with vertical temperature profile becoming cold enough for rain change over to snow. There is some disagreement on the amount of forcing and moisture left after change over to snow. The GFS and ECMWF are more aggressive and the NAM the least. Will follow the GFS solution for now which suggest 1 to 3 inches possible Thursday night through Friday morning. Winds will become strong and gusty behind frontal passage producing upslope flow into the Mountains. Will have the 3 to 5 inches for the higher terrain. These amounts may warrant advisory issuance over the next couple of days. For Friday, orographic lift will continue to produce scattered snow showers for the mountains, otherwise, colder and drier air will spill back into the area with a gradual decrease in cloud cover. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through Tuesday)... Aloft, broad zonal flow covers the eastern half of the United States. Trough over the Plains Saturday, starts to shift East while carving out a sharp and transitory wave that moves off the East coast on Monday. In it`s wake, broad zonal flow once again re- establishes across the eastern US by mid-week. Although zonal pattern will leave conditions for the long term forecast in an unsettled state, the main forecast problem is with system expected to roll across the area on Sunday. Despite zonal flow pattern aloft, models are in fair agreement on the timing of the system with bulk of pcpn currently expected Sunday morning into the early afternoon. Also, latest runs of ECMWF and GFS are somewhat in agreement on the low level temperature and moisture profile overnight Saturday into Sunday morning which lend a bit more confidence to the current solution as it stands. Even with the dry low-level air mass in place overnight, present soln struggles to generate much frozen precipitation overnight Saturday before much of the area sees a transition to rain in the morning hours on Sunday. Best chance for accumulations with this system look to be Sunday evening into the overnight when the cold air makes a push and allows any remaining moisture to be squeezed out as snow before tapering off by Monday morning. Zonal pattern and another shortwave trough early next week will continue to threaten possible periods of snow to start of the first half of next week. As often happens for our area, it will be the timing of the pcpn in that period that will likely drive the frozen versus liquid and any potential for accumulations. Stay tuned for more as we get closer to the weekend and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The last 6 weeks have been exhausting with almost nothing to show for it. I usually live and die with every mod run this time of year and I can’t hardly look once a day right now, even with a decent look down the road. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: The last 6 weeks have been exhausting with almost nothing to show for it. I usually live and die with every mod run this time of year and I can’t hardly look once a day right now, even with a decent look down the road. . Yeah, man. I hear that. I have worked my tail off for my 1.5" of snow. LOL. With no Atlantic blocking, these systems are just zooming along. Tough to get any confluence or even predicting confluence(if actually there). Right now, I am just looking inside of four days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Great look IMHO. 144 on the 12z UKMET. Trough is further West and further north than December. Plenty of room for things to come north and cold available. I chose the UKMET, because quite frankly, I am just tired of looking at the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Bored stiff this evening...here is the 18z GEFS. Give me that look all day long. If true...the thaw was shortened by what will be remembered as a winter in which the base state was cold. Hey Coach B, been a good winter for the wood stove, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 We will see if snow catches up but two things, it could have approached record cold if we'd gotten deep snow cover in the east. 30 mIles NW of me in KY got 6 inches of snow and got down to -17. The other is the -EPO is the boss when it's in place. It's going to get cold in the East during those times. There are other ways to get winter here but the EPO Ridge delivers frigid cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Man.the thermals that run were sooooooo ...close at BNA GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z JAN31 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) WED 00Z 31-JAN -0.3 -2.3 129 1343 14002 0.00 WED 06Z 31-JAN -1.1 2.0 130 7764 17005 0.00 0.00 WED 12Z 31-JAN -0.1 4.1 131 8122 19009 0.00 0.00 WED 18Z 31-JAN 9.4 5.8 133 9518 20014 0.00 0.00 THU 00Z 01-FEB 7.0 5.6 133 9941 20010 0.00 0.00 THU 06Z 01-FEB 5.9 2.9 133 6639 20010 0.00 0.00 THU 12Z 01-FEB 7.1 3.3 133 6372 21010 0.00 0.00 THU 18Z 01-FEB 8.3 3.1 133 6868 23007 RA 0.09 0.00 FRI 00Z 02-FEB 4.9 -2.3 131 3003 34007 RA 0.21 0.00 FRI 06Z 02-FEB -2.5 -4.5 127 6 34008 SN 0.02 0.00 FRI 12Z 02-FEB -5.2 -8.5 126 0 35008 0.00 0.00 FRI 18Z 02-FEB -0.4 -8.0 126 439 35008 0.00 0.00 SAT 00Z 03-FEB -2.3 -6.6 127 6 01003 0.00 0.00 SAT 06Z 03-FEB -3.3 -3.6 128 0 10002 0.00 0.00 SAT 12Z 03-FEB -2.1 -2.2 129 1594 13003 0.00 0.00 SAT 18Z 03-FEB 5.1 -3.0 130 3567 19006 0.00 0.00 SUN 00Z 04-FEB 2.7 -3.5 131 3677 17005 SN 0.02 0.01 SUN 06Z 04-FEB 1.8 -0.2 130 3388 19005 RA 0.14 0.10 SUN 12Z 04-FEB 1.7 -0.1 131 4312 07003 RA 0.32 0.19 SUN 18Z 04-FEB 2.3 -0.2 131 3800 01006 RA 0.26 0.17 MON 00Z 05-FEB 1.1 -3.3 129 1121 35008 SN 0.06 0.16 MON 06Z 05-FEB -1.1 -4.8 128 203 34009 SN 0.02 0.19 MON 12Z 05-FEB -4.1 -7.3 127 0 33007 SN 0.01 0.20 MON 18Z 05-FEB -1.4 -7.2 127 251 31005 0.00 0.19 TUE 00Z 06-FEB -3.4 -0.6 129 1405 06001 0.00 0.19 TUE 06Z 06-FEB -2.6 2.7 131 6920 18005 0.00 0.19 TUE 12Z 06-FEB 1.1 0.19 TUE 18Z 06-FEB WED 00Z 07-FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I think that'd be snow in Nashville. sub freezing 850 and 35 degrees at the surface with heavy precip falling screams snow to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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