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Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

AMZ8990

By AMZ8990,
in Tennessee Valley

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

Euro shows more juice the weekend system,could be some mixing tho right now 

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z JAN29
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
MON 12Z 29-JAN                  33.3    27.3    02004   0.00    0.00       9    
MON 18Z 29-JAN  47.6    32.7    47.7    32.1    33008   0.00    0.00      13    
TUE 00Z 30-JAN  47.9    34.4    34.3    23.5    33011   0.00    0.00      98    
TUE 06Z 30-JAN  34.4    30.5    30.3    18.4    34008   0.00    0.00      79    
TUE 12Z 30-JAN  30.4    23.5    23.4    15.4    35005   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 30-JAN  34.6    22.9    34.9    14.4    33004   0.00    0.00      78    
WED 00Z 31-JAN  37.8    33.0    32.8    17.9    13002   0.00    0.00       2    
WED 06Z 31-JAN  32.9    26.7    28.0    17.0    17005   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 31-JAN  29.6    27.9    29.7    16.0    18008   0.00    0.00      64    
WED 18Z 31-JAN  48.6    29.7    48.9    24.0    20011   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 00Z 01-FEB  52.7    46.9    46.8    26.6    19012   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 06Z 01-FEB  46.8    43.9    43.9    31.4    20010   0.00    0.00      74    
THU 12Z 01-FEB  47.4    43.8    47.4    42.8    21009   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 01-FEB  50.1    47.3    50.0    46.7    22007   0.02    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 02-FEB  50.2    35.6    35.4    35.2    34009   0.27    0.01     100    
FRI 06Z 02-FEB  35.4    26.1    25.9    16.5    34009   0.06    0.03      68    
FRI 12Z 02-FEB  25.9    18.5    18.4     1.1    34007   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 18Z 02-FEB  28.2    18.0    28.4     4.2    34005   0.00    0.00      28    
SAT 00Z 03-FEB  31.1    24.6    24.7    10.8    36003   0.00    0.00       5    
SAT 06Z 03-FEB  26.0    21.8    21.9     8.9    07003   0.00    0.00      24    
SAT 12Z 03-FEB  22.2    21.0    21.5     7.9    14004   0.00    0.00      21    
SAT 18Z 03-FEB  44.0    21.5    44.3     3.9    18007   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 00Z 04-FEB  45.1    36.6    36.5    20.5    17007   0.00    0.00      93    
SUN 06Z 04-FEB  38.5    35.1    38.5    23.8    18008   0.00    0.00      99    
SUN 12Z 04-FEB  38.7    33.7    33.6    33.2    17005   0.15    0.12     100    
SUN 18Z 04-FEB  36.8    33.5    36.9    35.6    01002   0.21    0.15     100    
MON 00Z 05-FEB
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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted 
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689

                                            12Z JAN29
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
MON 12Z 29-JAN                  39.3    33.0    35007   0.00    0.00       6    
MON 18Z 29-JAN  52.6    37.5    52.9    24.5    00007   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 00Z 30-JAN  54.8    44.3    44.1    29.4    32009   0.00    0.00      41    
TUE 06Z 30-JAN  44.1    31.4    31.4    16.9    34009   0.00    0.00      81    
TUE 12Z 30-JAN  31.4    25.9    25.8    15.1    35006   0.00    0.00       3    
TUE 18Z 30-JAN  37.3    25.0    37.6    16.7    33006   0.00    0.00       4    
WED 00Z 31-JAN  40.3    32.8    32.6    17.6    34005   0.00    0.00      77    
WED 06Z 31-JAN  32.9    26.8    26.9    18.9    08000   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 31-JAN  27.7    25.8    27.0    16.6    17005   0.00    0.00       3    
WED 18Z 31-JAN  47.1    26.9    47.4    19.7    19008   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 00Z 01-FEB  50.5    42.6    42.4    25.5    17008   0.00    0.00       5    
THU 06Z 01-FEB  42.4    37.4    37.4    26.0    18008   0.00    0.00       3    
THU 12Z 01-FEB  42.0    36.6    42.0    37.8    19007   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 01-FEB  51.5    42.0    51.7    44.8    22009   0.02    0.00      98    
FRI 00Z 02-FEB  53.4    50.0    49.9    48.8    20007   0.03    0.00      99    
FRI 06Z 02-FEB  50.0    34.8    34.9    34.2    35006   0.29    0.02      96    
FRI 12Z 02-FEB  35.0    23.7    23.5    16.0    35007   0.00    0.00      91    
FRI 18Z 02-FEB  32.7    22.0    33.0     8.1    35006   0.00    0.00      79    
SAT 00Z 03-FEB  35.3    27.9    27.7     9.2    34006   0.00    0.00      70    
SAT 06Z 03-FEB  27.7    22.7    22.7     9.0    03004   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 12Z 03-FEB  22.8    21.7    21.8     7.9    06004   0.00    0.00       2    
SAT 18Z 03-FEB  40.8    21.6    41.1    13.1    16007   0.00    0.00      91    
SUN 00Z 04-FEB  42.7    35.7    35.6    18.9    15006   0.00    0.00      95    
SUN 06Z 04-FEB  35.7    34.0    34.3    18.1    16006   0.00    0.00      97    
SUN 12Z 04-FEB  34.7    33.9    33.8    25.8    18003   0.05    0.05     100    
SUN 18Z 04-FEB  35.5    32.3    35.5    35.3    03003   0.47    0.13     100    
MON 00Z 05-FEB  36.9    35.4    35.7    35.6    03005   0.09    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 05-FEB  35.8    34.7    34.7    33.7    02006   0.00    0.00      97    
MON 12Z 05-FEB  34.7    32.7    32.6    31.3    00007   0.00    0.00      99    
MON 18Z 05-FEB  37.9    32.1    38.1    30.6    36004   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  40.7    36.3    36.2    30.3    01002   0.00    0.00      76
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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted 
CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            12Z JAN29
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
MON 12Z 29-JAN                  39.0    32.6    36006   0.00    0.00      90    
MON 18Z 29-JAN  49.1    37.2    49.3    25.3    00006   0.00    0.00       5    
TUE 00Z 30-JAN  51.1    42.3    42.0    27.8    32008   0.00    0.00      46    
TUE 06Z 30-JAN  42.0    30.2    30.0    16.2    33008   0.05    0.04      94    
TUE 12Z 30-JAN  30.1    26.3    26.3    13.0    34006   0.00    0.00      91    
TUE 18Z 30-JAN  33.3    25.2    33.5    14.8    35005   0.00    0.00       1    
WED 00Z 31-JAN  35.8    29.1    29.0    16.2    02004   0.00    0.00      10    
WED 06Z 31-JAN  29.0    23.3    24.1    15.7    11003   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 31-JAN  26.5    23.2    25.2    15.0    15003   0.00    0.00      19    
WED 18Z 31-JAN  47.6    25.2    47.9    17.7    23008   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 00Z 01-FEB  50.9    40.7    40.6    20.7    20006   0.00    0.00      16    
THU 06Z 01-FEB  40.7    38.7    38.8    21.7    20008   0.00    0.00      12    
THU 12Z 01-FEB  41.5    37.9    41.6    35.4    21008   0.00    0.00      99    
THU 18Z 01-FEB  49.3    41.6    49.4    42.2    23011   0.01    0.00      99    
FRI 00Z 02-FEB  50.6    47.4    47.4    45.0    22007   0.04    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 02-FEB  47.6    33.7    33.7    33.4    35003   0.46    0.19     100    
FRI 12Z 02-FEB  33.7    22.2    21.9    16.0    34007   0.02    0.02      43    
FRI 18Z 02-FEB  27.5    19.3    27.8     7.2    36004   0.00    0.00       5    
SAT 00Z 03-FEB  29.7    23.0    23.3     7.3    04003   0.00    0.00       3    
SAT 06Z 03-FEB  23.3    16.5    16.5     4.5    09002   0.00    0.00      33    
SAT 12Z 03-FEB  19.2    16.0    18.6     4.9    08003   0.00    0.00      15    
SAT 18Z 03-FEB  40.8    18.6    40.9     8.0    22004   0.00    0.00      96    
SUN 00Z 04-FEB  43.1    33.9    34.1    17.7    19004   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 06Z 04-FEB  34.5    31.0    31.5    16.0    19004   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 12Z 04-FEB  33.0    31.1    32.8    21.6    19001   0.00    0.00     100    
SUN 18Z 04-FEB  34.2    32.2    33.7    31.8    05002   0.31    0.27     100    
MON 00Z 05-FEB  34.6    33.2    33.2    32.3    04003   0.09    0.05      99    
MON 06Z 05-FEB  33.4    32.5    32.6    31.9    02005   0.00    0.00      93    
MON 12Z 05-FEB  32.7    29.3    29.2    27.6    00006   0.00    0.00      99    
MON 18Z 05-FEB  33.8    28.2    33.6    28.1    35004   0.01    0.00      96    
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  35.3    31.5    31.7    28.3    00002   0.00    0.00      94    
TUE 06Z 06-FEB  32.3    24.2    24.2    22.4    08004   0.00    0.00      37    
TUE 12Z 06-FEB  25.3    20.5    23.2    21.3    10003   0.00    0.00      66  
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI    LAT=  36.47 LON=  -82.40 ELE=  1519

                                            12Z JAN29
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
MON 12Z 29-JAN                  39.2    32.1    34005   0.00    0.00      95    
MON 18Z 29-JAN  47.4    38.3    47.5    20.2    34007   0.00    0.00       1    
TUE 00Z 30-JAN  48.8    39.6    39.2    24.8    31007   0.00    0.00      60    
TUE 06Z 30-JAN  39.3    28.5    28.4    18.8    30007   0.06    0.05      96    
TUE 12Z 30-JAN  28.4    24.6    24.5    13.4    31008   0.02    0.02      99    
TUE 18Z 30-JAN  30.6    23.9    30.7     8.9    31009   0.00    0.00       5    
WED 00Z 31-JAN  31.9    24.6    24.4     9.4    32006   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 31-JAN  24.4    20.8    20.8    11.8    15004   0.00    0.00       2    
WED 12Z 31-JAN  21.6    20.1    21.2     9.9    12002   0.00    0.00      31    
WED 18Z 31-JAN  47.1    21.2    47.4     8.3    23006   0.00    0.00       7    
THU 00Z 01-FEB  48.9    35.4    35.1    23.5    19004   0.00    0.00       3    
THU 06Z 01-FEB  35.4    29.6    30.6    20.8    27001   0.00    0.00      66    
THU 12Z 01-FEB  31.4    29.1    31.5    20.8    19003   0.00    0.00      94    
THU 18Z 01-FEB  45.8    31.5    45.9    39.2    23009   0.00    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 02-FEB  46.5    44.0    43.8    42.0    22006   0.03    0.00      99    
FRI 06Z 02-FEB  43.9    32.5    32.5    32.1    29007   0.43    0.25     100    
FRI 12Z 02-FEB  32.5    20.1    19.8    16.3    32006   0.04    0.04      85    
FRI 18Z 02-FEB  22.8    16.7    23.0     3.6    29005   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 03-FEB  25.7    17.5    17.1     3.3    30005   0.00    0.00       1    
SAT 06Z 03-FEB  18.9    12.6    14.4     3.1    13001   0.00    0.00      68    
SAT 12Z 03-FEB  15.8    12.7    12.8     2.4    10003   0.00    0.00       1    
SAT 18Z 03-FEB  39.7    12.1    40.1     1.3    21003   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 00Z 04-FEB  42.7    32.8    32.6    14.7    16006   0.00    0.00      99    
SUN 06Z 04-FEB  32.6    30.4    30.5    13.9    17005   0.00    0.00      96    
SUN 12Z 04-FEB  30.8    27.8    29.2    16.1    13001   0.00    0.00     100    
SUN 18Z 04-FEB  34.1    28.8    32.9    28.3    05001   0.11    0.11     100    
MON 00Z 05-FEB  34.0    32.2    32.2    31.5    35002   0.13    0.12      99    
MON 06Z 05-FEB  32.2    29.4    31.0    29.9    03004   0.00    0.00      78    
MON 12Z 05-FEB  31.1    28.0    27.9    26.0    01005   0.00    0.00      96    
MON 18Z 05-FEB  36.0    26.8    36.1    26.8    34002   0.00    0.00      81    
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  37.3    31.8    31.7    28.2    27004   0.00    0.00      77    
TUE 06Z 06-FEB  31.8    24.7    25.6    24.0    30000   0.00    0.00      33    
TUE 12Z 06-FEB  25.8    20.3    20.9    19.8    13003   0.00    0.00      90    
TUE 18Z 06-FEB  39.4    20.1    39.2    28.8    27002   0.00    0.00      74

 

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Thaw...did we ever know ya?

  

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tuesday)...
After a mostly sunny day clouds were beginning to increase in the
northwest as a 500 MB vorticity maximum moving through the back
side of the trough heads toward the eastern Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalchians. Ahead of this system temperatures have
warmed nicely into the mid 40s northeast to mid and upper 50s
southwest. North to northwest winds have increased with cold air
advection and drier airmass with the trough moving down from the
NW. The relative humidity values have dropped to less than 40
percent as dew points have dropped into the 20s. Tonight NW winds
at 850 mb of 25 to 30 knots combined with low level moisture with
the system will cause some good upslope snow showers. In the lower
elevations the precipitation will begin as rain then switch to
snow before or after midnight. Only slight accumulations expected
across lower elevations. Accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
possible...locally higher highest elevations. The lows tonight
will fall into the 20s...teens higher mountains. Tuesday will be
much colder with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Clouds will
decrease rapidly...lingering in the morning in the eastern
Tennessee mountains. Will update advisory shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)...
It looks like a couple of systems impact the forecast area
through the long term. After a dry Wednesday, a deepening, broad
long wave trough drives east across the Eastern U.S. dragging
colder air into the region. A band of deeper moisture will be
lifted in the presence of the front generating rain showers.
Temperatures will be dropping behind the boundary and some of the
precipitation may mix with and change over to some snow as the
back edge of the precipitation shield exits Thursday night into
Friday. Dry advection builds in later in the day Friday into the
first half of the weekend, however the next wave will be rapidly
building east through the plains into the Mississippi Valley with
moisture riding over the relatively cooler air at the surface.
Model solutions not entirely on the same page with this feature,
but the resident airmass may not have enough time to moderate
prior to the arrival of this second half of the weekend system.
Therefore, there will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as
colder air fills in behind the departing surface low late Sunday
through Sunday night. Kept some wintery precipitation in the
region through Monday in a broad brush fashion. Certainly, as we
move forward in time, the late work week and late weekend system
will come into better focus in terms of system strength, position
and the temperature scheme which will determine the amount of
winter precipitation experienced.

&&
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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

Posted
Posted
18z gfs has a warm nose half the way up the valley if we going get snow when it shows I hope it looses the warm air over the next few days on future models ill take the euro totals any day. gfs gives me a ice storm in loudon county.
Looking at the features, that isn't as bad a set up as it may look on the precip maps for the eastern valley. NE wind down the eastern valley for most of the event, starts predawn as snow. I would take that any day of the week and twice on sunday!
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Mrwolf1972

Mrwolf1972

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:
22 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:
18z gfs has a warm nose half the way up the valley if we going get snow when it shows I hope it looses the warm air over the next few days on future models ill take the euro totals any day. gfs gives me a ice storm in loudon county.

Looking at the features, that isn't as bad a set up as it may look on the precip maps for the eastern valley. NE wind down the eastern valley for most of the event, starts predawn as snow. I would take that any day of the week and twice on sunday!

Just hope we get this storm and it's not another miss we get to many misses here.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Weeklies Update.  Winter is with us through the first week of March....then we break fast for Spring.  As noted earlier...it is very rare to see cold springs during Nina ENSO states.  The big warm-up over eastern NA fits w Nina climb.  But if February is right...we will gladly accept the warmth!

-Basically the Euro M-Climate Weeklies show 5 weeks of cold beginning now.  

-After d35ish...the 500 pattern shifts the trough West, but there is a ton of energy taking the low road.  

-On a minor note, make sure to take a parka to the Yucatan or Cuba if traveling there.

-The “normal” temp mean on the Weeklies.... That is a major cold signal.  And what is awesome, the cold is centered over the GL which would imply that plenty of systems will slide under that trough.

-And teleconnections....The -EPO has been the driver all season.  It has saved our rear ends.  As soon as it goes positive, game is up.  Another winter w the NAO going AWOL.

 

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

The end of the weekend is really looking interesting


.

Yes it is.  Trailer systems that don't allow the cold to be scoured are fun to track.  Definitely has my attention after MRX noted it yesterday.  I am pretty excited about the next four weeks.  Then, I am ready to take my morning runs in the warm air of spring.  But for the next four weeks, I hope Mother Nature just lets it rip.

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weathertree4u

weathertree4u

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Euro abandons ship again with the Thursday night system. Hammers counties that border Kentucky from north of Nashville east, and Virginia with 4-8 inches of snow Saturday night into Sunday with a sharp cutoff towards I-40.  Not going to trust it to be correct, as it's struggling mightily lately.

I will take that run in a heart beat!

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