jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 meh,had my model set on the 12z not OZ,thought those soundings looked funky wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 18 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Winter of 2010-2011 was another one that went: Warmer, oops another cold shot, warmer, oops! Until February. It was a similar ENSO and QBO regime. In the mid-term, I am not even paying attention to next week. It'll probably be cold chasing rain (both times). I remain more interested after February 5th. Peer reviewed research posted somewhere on Twitter the ECMWF has troubles in MJO phase 5 (current initial) despite its overall better performance. As for the forecast MJO, who wants to gander at the phase? (see photo below) Tough for a human, ripe for disaster with a a machine. Big slug of convection is out east of the Continental Maritime already, which argues for colder than NWP. I still think in February one has to respect the SER a little more. Still models have a history of missing low level cold advances into the South. I read that a couple nights ago.Never thought the CFS would fare better than the EPS in most phases r Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Couple of overnight mid to long range observations...The February SER climo is definitely in play. The placement of the Arctic boundary varies slightly between models, but makes a big difference because we are the battleground area for that. The EPS is now showing cold returning a "locked-in" trough around mid-month. It will very interesting to see if it hurries up the feature as the GEFS at 2m is almost there. Happy Saturday, everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Not saying late next week plays out favorably for our region, and I know every setup and situation is different.......but an observation from last weeks cutter to the upper Midwest had 1-3 inches of snow for southern Wisconsin. Parts of southern Wisconsin verified between 6 and 12 inches. That was the same thing that has happened numerous times already this winter were the areas further south and east had more appreciable winter weather than modeling indicated from several days out. its odd that it's been happening this way, but maybe it can happen again where the southern edge verifies more snow and ice. I can say I have been pretty impressed with the GFS and the consistency of the setup. I keep waiting for it to completely lose the setup, but it's been pretty solid and other modeling SEEMS to have made moves toward what it has been steadfast in showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 12z Euro dropped the 2-4 inch snow line back down into Northern Tennessee. GFS is a 40 north event, the Canadian shifted about 350 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Euro Control is heavier in the mountains and Plateau and lighter north of Nashville with snow totals, but overall very similar just east with the heavier snow in Kentucky and Northern Tennessee. Very defined warmnose in the eastern valley. From Nooga due NE up to about Morristown on the Euro OP and up to about Loudon on the Control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Least the Euro came back with some snow.Seems today's trend is more east with the heavier amounts.Gives BNA .17 QPF's ,the Euro does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 18z GFS came back south of 40 with snow. Some of this in the far NE is from a couple days from now. 1-3 inches possible in those areas then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 GFS is advertising another major winter event at day 9-10. Sleet/freezing rain and back side snow. It's snowing in East Tennessee at this hour with .5-1.5 inches of snow falling on top of heavy ice and sleet across a large portion of the forum. This one is deep south cold as you see the freezing rain way down in Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana. These freezing rain streaks are odd and I would smooth this into a wide spread accumulation rather than heavy accumulation paralleled by no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 System around the 6th is still possible.I mentioned this several days ago looking at Asia.Euro lost it but came back with it.Carver mentioned this date also a few days ago i believe.Should still be a system around the 10th still,but i'm not sure what it will be right now until the teleconnections come clearer,all honesty it could be anything with the SER poking around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 50 minutes ago, John1122 said: GFS is advertising another major winter event at day 9-10. Sleet/freezing rain and back side snow. It's snowing in East Tennessee at this hour with .5-1.5 inches of snow falling on top of heavy ice and sleet across a large portion of the forum. This one is deep south cold as you see the freezing rain way down in Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana. These freezing rain streaks are odd and I would smooth this into a wide spread accumulation rather than heavy accumulation paralleled by no accumulation. The GWO is going into a more Nino pattern phase 5 around the 5th then going into the COD.So we should be looking at some colder temps in the central parts of the country with a trough then spreading east in time building up the PNA.Maybe the GFS will score again ..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Pretty much we should have confidence for the system around the 6th with a trough in the middle of the country,question looms what comes with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 PV is showing signs of going into Northern Canada in ten days,no sign of any SSW,it's taking a good hit though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 GFS wants to drop the cold bomb end of the run,seems possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 The 6z GEFS and 0z GEPS have moved to quite cold solutions after Feb 6. The Euro still maintains a muted version of the story. It did, however, correct further to a deeper trough between days 13-15. Not huge discrepancies on a global scale, especially at that range, but the non Euro globals push boundary through the forum area while the Euro does temporarily and then retreats north to the Ohio River valley....then brings the cold back. If those looks hold and consolidate on either solution actually, a period of cold, stormy winter wx looks increasingly likely(and I am not even referring to next Friday) beginning sometime between Feb 6 and 12 depending on your model preference. It would seem that the models are playing a bit of catch-up, so a correction to quicker and colder is possible. Very good trends in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Just an observation. Next Friday's (possible widespread rain to snow) event has been the steadiest modeled event at long ranges I can remember. It has also probably been the least discussed event in our forums history. Perhaps it's because it's shown mostly as and I-40 north event, or maybe it's because we have been seeing it consistently shown on modeling for 5 days now and it's STILL 5 days out? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, tnweathernut said: Just an observation. Next Friday's (possible widespread rain to snow) event has been the steadiest modeled event at long ranges I can remember. It has also probably been the least discussed event in our forums history. Perhaps it's because it's shown mostly as and I-40 north event, or maybe it's because we have been seeing it consistently shown on modeling for 5 days now and it's STILL 5 days out? lol True. I just don’t trust a model past three days this winter. The overall 500 pattern has been decently modeled...but w no blocking in the Atlantic...the speed of these individual systems is making timing and accuracy iffy. I think we are just taking the Bunker Hill philosophy...don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes. If the Euro holds serve this afternoon...I will pay a bit more attention. But like I said above...the LR looks very good. Could be a wild month upcoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 The GFS has now sped the 6th system up by a day or two and it's a classic miller A/slider. One would have to think we are eventually going to cash in with one of these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, John1122 said: The GFS has now sped the 6th system up by a day or two and it's a classic miller A/slider. One would have to think we are eventually going to cash in with one of these systems. When does euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: When does euro run? It runs between 1 and 2 pm est. It shows a light rain event on the 6th. But it's been following the GFS over the last week or so. I'd still put more stock in it though, just based on the fact that if a model shows a snowy solution for the eastern half of the valley, it's been wrong 95 percent of the time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 MAJOR correction on the 12z EPS run towards a deeper trough by d12. It has been creeping there for a few days...now it basically drops the hammer at 850 and at 500. The cold is now modeled to arrived (and stay) by February 10th. The 12z GEFS now is pretty much wall-to-wall trough in the East once it arrives in a couple of days. There are some differences at 2m where the EPS still has a warm-up after the late week cold snap. The GEFS has a 1-2 day warm-up vs the 4-5 day warm-up on the EPS. Now, that the correction is taking place on the EPS it is likely that the model is playing catchup. Right now, the model is too far to the East to allow for snow. But if the correction continues, the trough should be in a great spot. There is no coup by the GEFS though...both models had the cold, lost it, and have now found it again. This is almost exactly the scenario before Christmas. The EPS runs today opens the door for very cold if not sever cold to re-enter the eastern US prior to mid-month. Great trends. I think it likely now that we see 2-3 weeks of chances beginning around February 10th. As a caveat, we need the EPS trough to be not so far to the East...but the GEFS trough position is about perfect and its snow ensemble reflects that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: MAJOR correction on the 12z EPS run towards a deeper trough by d12. It has been creeping there for a few days...now it basically drops the hammer at 850 and at 500. The cold is now modeled to arrived (and stay) by February 10th. The 12z GEFS now is pretty much wall-to-wall trough in the East once it arrives in a couple of days. There are some differences at 2m where the EPS still has a warm-up after the late week cold snap. The GEFS has a 1-2 day warm-up vs the 4-5 day warm-up on the EPS. Now, that the correction is taking place on the EPS it is likely that the model is playing catchup. Right now, the model is too far to the East to allow for snow. But if the correction continues, the trough should be in a great spot. There is no coup by the GEFS though...both models had the cold, lost it, and have now found it again. This is almost exactly the scenario before Christmas. The EPS runs today opens the door for very cold if not sever cold to re-enter the eastern US prior to mid-month. Great trends. I think it likely now that we see 2-3 weeks of chances beginning around February 10th. As a caveat, we need the EPS trough to be not so far to the East...but the GEFS trough position is about perfect and its snow ensemble reflects that. Can snow ensemble be posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 24 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Can snow ensemble be posted? Sure...EPS or GEFS? I am basically out of memory. LOL. I hate deleting maps(to clear memory for my attachments) in old threads because I use them like a library/archives. I will say that those snow ensembles have been a bust all winter...I am looking more at the 500 pattern and whether it supports storms. Speaking of the 12z suite....The EPS, verbatim, would be bone dry. The GEFS is excellent. I think the EPS corrects more towards an eastern trough...it does show the trough pulling back a bit west late in its run. Just being Feb, I think we see a lot of activity. I am more bullish today than earlier this week. I think the window will be Feb 10 to March 10...or longer. The LR models really show a pattern that may last well into early spring. The thing is...Nina's very rarely have cold springs(off the top of my head). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 51 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Sure...EPS or GEFS? I am basically out of memory. LOL. I hate deleting maps(to clear memory for my attachments) in old threads because I use them like a library/archives. I will say that those snow ensembles have been a bust all winter...I am looking more at the 500 pattern and whether it supports storms. Speaking of the 12z suite....The EPS, verbatim, would be bone dry. The GEFS is excellent. I think the EPS corrects more towards an eastern trough...it does show the trough pulling back a bit west late in its run. Just being Feb, I think we see a lot of activity. I am more bullish today than earlier this week. I think the window will be Feb 10 to March 10...or longer. The LR models really show a pattern that may last well into early spring. The thing is...Nina's very rarely have cold springs(off the top of my head). I really want to jump on board but at least for my area, when I pull the output for the latest GFS I see normal temps at best and slight chances for precip. I know the area has had some pretty big February/March storms in the past. Hope you are right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: I really want to jump on board but at least for my area, when I pull the output for the latest GFS I see normal temps at best and slight chances for precip. I know the area has had some pretty big February/March storms in the past. Hope you are right! No right or wrong right now....just trying to figure things out. Today was a decent day at 500 for the models...but the details will determine how much winter wx we see. Seems that snow has been tough to come by in the eastern Valley and that cold has been plentiful up to this point. I am 10” BN in terms of snow IMBY. Also, it has been very dry. Hopefully February climo throws us some shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: No right or wrong right now....just trying to figure things out. Today was a decent day at 500 for the models...but the details will determine how much winter wx we see. Seems that snow has been tough to come by in the eastern Valley and that cold has been plentiful up to this point. I am 10” BN in terms of snow IMBY. Also, it has been very dry. Hopefully February climo throws us some shade. No worries, I am sure we will all be watching the model runs this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Yet another underperforming system in terms of QPF here in my neck of the woods of northeast TN. It's like pulling teeth to get a system to throw down a widespread quarter of an inch here in northeast TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Decent run by 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, TellicoWx said: Decent run by 00z Euro What is the date of this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.