nrgjeff Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 A little optimism is called for this case. MJO is going into cold phases. Finally showing up on Euro Ens and we know it handles the MJO better than the Goofy Forecast Solution. Oh, but let's just give up before Feb. La Nina is dry, but so is snow qpf compared to rain qpf. I'm the first to manage expectations, but the forecast doesn't suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: A little optimism is called for this case. MJO is going into cold phases. Finally showing up on Euro Ens and we know it handles the MJO better than the Goofy Forecast Solution. Oh, but let's just give up before Feb. La Nina is dry, but so is snow qpf compared to rain qpf. I'm the first to manage expectations, but the forecast doesn't suck. Sounds to me like you have been reading the SE forum's LR thread? Got to shake it off. You are back home now, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Sounds to me like you have been reading the SE forum's LR thread? Got to shake it off. You are back home now, man. Lol you are so right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Volatile pattern in East Asia,Yesterday afternoon showed a system going through the Valley,possibly.Last night it lost it now it's more a southern system kicker look.I wouldnt give up on any snow chance like Jeff said,its the best look we've seen in years,But we'll have to wait into Feb unless something weird happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 12z EPS continues the very consistent look of cold arriving sometime between Feb 3-5 depending on your longitude in the forum area. One more nice weekend, and then it looks like the hammer drops again. It is SLOW moving just like before Christmas. As suspected, the eastern trough is getting deeper as we get closer to the run. This run of the EPS pretty much brought the cold goods full whammy. It seems that models have underestimated all winter how far the cold penetrates SE. But this is February and the SER will fight back which might be a good thing in small doses. Looks like the EPS is also correcting the axis of the trough. You know, if we get cold again as the EPS shows...that will potentially make for a truly remarkable winter for cold. And cold in February often delivers winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Noticed someone in the MA forum(maybe Bob Chill?) commenting on the CFSv2 run last evening. You can find this on www.tropicaltidbits.com under climate models. Great look. Not a huge fan of this model as it just has too many looks to trust...but this one might be noteworthy due to what it is showing over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 http://governmentshutdown.noaa.gov/ No more SOI,for the time being anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z EPS continues the very consistent look of cold arriving sometime between Feb 3-5 depending on your longitude in the forum area. One more nice weekend, and then it looks like the hammer drops again. It is SLOW moving just like before Christmas. As suspected, the eastern trough is getting deeper as we get closer to the run. This run of the EPS pretty much brought the cold goods full whammy. It seems that models have underestimated all winter how far the cold penetrates SE. But this is February and the SER will fight back which might be a good thing in small doses. Looks like the EPS is also correcting the axis of the trough. You know, if we get cold again as the EPS shows...that will potentially make for a truly remarkable winter for cold. And cold in February often delivers winter weather. The afternoon EPS signals an even deeper trough in the east toward the 10-15. Like you said, this has been correcting toward a more robust 500mb trough with each run. Looks to be something moving up in time, meaning no delays. Completely squashes the SE ridge, but like you......thinking we get some help with that feature. It will be interesting to see if we can get the ridge out west to be stable, anchoring the cold vs. something that rolls over and puts us in another cold and dry pattern that we have to wait for a retrograde before finding cold AND precip. At the very least we seem to be headed back toward a favorable period of tracking potential. The only downfall to that is that I have never been able to shovel "potential". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 48 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: The afternoon EPS signals an even deeper trough in the east toward the 10-15. Like you said, this has been correcting toward a more robust 500mb trough with each run. Looks to be something moving up in time, meaning no delays. Completely squashes the SE ridge, but like you......thinking we get some help with that feature. It will be interesting to see if we can get the ridge out west to be stable, anchoring the cold vs. something that rolls over and puts us in another cold and dry pattern that we have to wait for a retrograde before finding cold AND precip. At the very least we seem to be headed back toward a favorable period of tracking potential. The only downfall to that is that I have never been able to shovel "potential". Great write-up. The CFS climate forecasts on Tropical Tidbits definitely depict a dry southeast for February. But...and this is a big but...I think February just has a tendency to be a wet month. So, climatology (really just a fancy way of talking about the "law of averages") argues for winter weather if we get cold an stay cold. We average 3.45 inches of precipitation in February at TRI. Also, after reading some other forums, it is very rare for March to be cold during a La Nina. So, I think this next cold shot will generally run from February 5th to the second week in March, and then we break for spring big time. Now, if we begin to transition to a more neutral ENSO state in March...all bets are off. Fall has a tendency to be a dry time for Tennessee and that trend can often bleed into early winter. This is not early winter, and I think the push towards spring could make February and interesting month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Weeklies update... 1. Trough of varying depths from wk2 to wk7...pretty much wall-to-wall in the East. 2. Big -EPO/PNA ridge. 3. The battle lines will be drawn over the mid and upper South to the Carolinas and then northward. 4. Nothing is written in stone, but tough to get a better look than that. Updates will follow throughout the evening(in this post) as right now I can only see 850s and the 500 pattern. Still awaiting precipitation and temp anomalies.... ***I think Jeff's update below really sums up the run very well.*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Gem of a run, no other way to put it! Still as Carvers says, it is just a model. Scandinavia ridge and Northeast Asia trough make appearances some weeks. fixtures of our colder periods this side of the big blue marble. February climo is significantly better this pattern. What would bury the jet steam in Cuba during January puts it in the US Deep South in February. A slightly shorter wavelength would put that Carolina Crusher last week in East Tennessee. Finally the precip charts offer signs. 2/3 cold weeks show rain in the Deep South, which means weather systems tracking to our south. Snow here? I'm elevating the forecast from doesn't suck to moderately encouraging. Still it is a weekly forecast only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 An interesting note on the 0z EPS run from overnight....The arrival of the col cold (at 850) has moved to February 3rd for ALL of the forum area. I might not have been paying close attention to yesterday's runs...but that cold is moving forward more quickly in time. The original time was Feb 5th for it to encompass the entire area. Very similar to the "trough correction scenario" from just before Christmas. Will see if that timing holds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Sooooo....nobody is talking about the 12z suite (Icon, GFS, CMC)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Apparently somebody is. Power and natural gas markets are acting nutty for Feb. Either the herd thinks cold or a hedge fund is swinging for the fences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Sooooo....nobody is talking about the 12z suite (Icon, GFS, CMC)? Tell us more...tell us more!! Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 25 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Apparently somebody is. Power and natural gas markets are acting nutty for Feb. Either the herd thinks cold or a hedge fund is swinging for the fences. Just read a couple sites and they blamed the Polar Vortex coming back,looks up 6% since early this morning ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 54 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Hmmm...CMC starts the fun early while GFS shows something radically different @ 138. For those with Euro access, is the CMC on an island or closer to the Euro? Cold air likely overdone regardless... The Euro looks nothing like the GEM and is similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 That 12z Euro run late (d7-10 warning...proceed at your own risk) was impressive w/ that front. 50-60 knot gusts and 50-60 degree temperature gradients within a span of 200-300 miles. That front is roaring down the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: That 12z Euro run late (d7-10 warning...proceed at your own risk) was impressive w/ that front. 50-60 knot gusts and 50-60 degree temperature gradients within a span of 200-300 miles. That front is roaring down the Plains. It's similar to the front we had a while back but there isn't as much ana frontal moisture. So at least for now, not a lot of frozen precip in the forum area. Most longer range stuff looks similar to our late December/Early January pattern, just have to hope it's not another Arctic desert situation. Right now I'd feel good if I were in places that had already been hit this year because the pattern may repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 By day 10 there are 20 degree spreads across counties in Tennessee and it's in the low 20s in West Tennessee and nearly 60 in NETN/SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 25 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's similar to the front we had a while back but there isn't as much ana frontal moisture. So at least for now, not a lot of frozen precip in the forum area. Most longer range stuff looks similar to our late December/Early January pattern, just have to hope it's not another Arctic desert situation. Right now I'd feel good if I were in places that had already been hit this year because the pattern may repeat. I have a decent hunch that the battleground will be displaced northward during round 2... Nina climo normally does not cold that far south in February. The SER will be a bigger problem IMO. But it will likely help at times. Just need to keep systems below us. The d10 Euro that I could see on WxBell looked like it had something brewing in the GOM waiting for the front. That said, it is d10 so it will change. Right now, I would say that time frame is prime for something to move up that front. I think it is a very good sign that the cold appears to be ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 12z EPS has moved the cold up to Feb2 at 12z...that is the time when the entire forum area will be under very cold 850s. The trough depicted is a Goldilocks trough for our area. Just right. The return to cold is on operationals and ensembles alike. The snow mean has beefed up as well. Nothing huge but a considerable uptick. Would really like to see 2-3 nice additional winter storms to cement this as a very good winter. The cold has been there for all. Snow has been seen in the middle and western areas of our forum...top to bottom. Time to reel one in for the East. Time to unleash that -QBO one last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Definitely a slight shift on the 12z EPS with the eastern trough to the northwest. Allows heights to build under it. Not a dry pattern as that position would allow storms to attack the base of the trough. Could be a blip but it needs to be watched. Plenty of cold available. Instead of suppression we would have to worry about systems being too far north. As is...just about perfect as cold would likely press further than modeled. We do not want it to trend to where it is centered too far west and the SER builds. To me, that is the greatest risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 hours ago, *Flash* said: Yeah...first thing I thought combing through the 12z runs was the I-44 snow drought may be in jeopardy. Like where TN stands, but if I had to pick a state, I'd go with MO for the time being. If forced to choice ground zero for February winter wx...I would choose the Upper South to the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 The mode i just got looking at the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 The mode i get looking at the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 It gives me .66 freezing rain and 13 inches of snow on top of it. I'll take it. I'd have trouble trusting the GFS at 19 hours though, let alone 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 It follows the snow storm with temps in the 10s to low 20s for highs and 5 above to 10 below for the forum area for lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, John1122 said: It follows the snow storm with temps in the 10s to low 20s for highs and 5 above to 10 below for the forum area for lows. Saw that,had to double check and make sure i wasn't looking at the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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