John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 00Z Nam not looking nearly as good at 57 as the 18 did at 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Taps some moisture from the sw at 60, not looking as healthy as earlier at 66 as it was at 72 earlier but still might work out okay. Looks way better than the 18z gfs regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Looking decent for the central and south plateau. Maybe an inch or 2 in other areas through 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Cut the heavy totals in half from the 18z run. Still 1-3+ inches for most of the forum east of Jackson or so. It's basically a best case scenario at this point without a ton of support from other models. Maybe it will gain support over the rest of this cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1-3 inches on nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1-3 inches on nam I’m not going to complain at this point . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The GFS was much better than 18z and not too far off from the NAM that run. Maybe the best GFS run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 GFS is still gething there for the Southern valley and especially west of Nashville but the southern half of Arkansas and eastern half of Tennessee look good for 1-3 inches. At 18z the GFS was just dead across the whole of Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Models look less amped today.Not a big sytem as we already knew.Ratios will be a key for a bit more,only .06 BNA,bit more east,orographic spots should produce more.Here's TYS,0z GFS GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z JAN14 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC 2 M SFC SFC SFC 6 HR TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND PCP QPF CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 14-JAN 18.3 11.8 36006 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 18.3 15.7 15.8 9.9 02005 0.00 4 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 15.8 14.6 14.8 10.2 03004 0.00 20 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 29.4 14.5 29.4 15.1 03004 0.00 62 MON 00Z 15-JAN 31.7 23.0 23.1 10.1 07002 0.00 67 MON 06Z 15-JAN 24.2 22.3 23.9 12.2 23001 0.00 21 MON 12Z 15-JAN 26.2 24.5 25.6 15.6 18001 0.00 80 MON 18Z 15-JAN 41.1 24.6 41.1 23.7 22008 0.00 10 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 42.4 32.0 32.1 22.2 21004 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 32.1 28.6 28.7 21.9 22002 0.00 4 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 29.4 27.3 28.7 24.1 25001 0.00 85 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 31.0 28.6 30.4 27.2 30003 SN 0.04 98 WED 00Z 17-JAN 30.5 24.3 24.4 22.9 32004 SN 0.11 99 WED 06Z 17-JAN 24.2 12.9 13.1 10.9 34004 0.02 57 WED 12Z 17-JAN 13.0 8.6 8.7 6.1 00004 0.00 25 WED 18Z 17-JAN 21.5 8.2 21.5 14.6 01005 0.00 26 THU 00Z 18-JAN 23.5 16.9 17.0 11.5 01003 0.00 52 THU 06Z 18-JAN 16.9 13.4 13.5 11.0 04002 0.00 3 THU 12Z 18-JAN 13.7 12.8 13.1 10.0 02002 0.00 1 THU 18Z 18-JAN 31.2 13.1 31.3 17.5 03003 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 19-JAN 33.7 23.8 23.8 13.7 09002 0.00 0 FRI 06Z 19-JAN 24.0 22.0 22.2 13.4 22001 0.00 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The Canadian finally climbed on board. Southern Arkansas wins on it but it puts down 1-2 inches almost forum wide. It had been the driest of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 AO is going into-2 sigma around the 22nd,could stay - days after with a slight even negative EPO,Asia looks to be getting active upcoming into the 3rd week of Jan,could see the potential of another cold blast end of the month.Hopefully a system comes with it,to early to tell IMO right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Does anyone have GFS TRI soundings? (Or where one gets it?) From the maps it looked a solid 3 inches with 15 to 20:1 ratios, from roughly hour 66-76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bango said: Does anyone have GFS TRI soundings? (Or where one gets it?) From the maps it looked a solid 3 inches with 15 to 20:1 ratios, from roughly hour 66-76. Just ask,i'll shoot you what you want if i have it,here's the GFS 0z GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 00Z JAN14 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC 2 M SFC SFC SFC 6 HR TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND PCP QPF CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 14-JAN 18.9 12.7 00005 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 18.9 15.1 15.1 8.9 02004 0.00 71 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 14.9 12.1 12.1 7.0 03003 0.00 30 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 28.8 11.8 28.8 11.8 02003 0.00 23 MON 00Z 15-JAN 31.0 22.5 22.5 5.6 03002 0.00 97 MON 06Z 15-JAN 22.5 20.6 20.6 7.6 11002 0.00 47 MON 12Z 15-JAN 22.5 20.1 20.1 8.5 13002 0.00 35 MON 18Z 15-JAN 38.4 20.2 38.4 23.3 23006 0.00 13 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 40.5 29.0 29.1 20.6 23002 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 29.1 26.4 26.5 19.6 19002 0.00 7 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 27.2 25.6 26.8 21.8 20003 0.00 86 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 34.6 26.9 34.5 30.9 27005 SN 0.02 100 WED 00Z 17-JAN 34.0 27.3 27.3 25.6 28004 SN 0.11 100 WED 06Z 17-JAN 27.2 19.9 20.0 18.1 31005 SN 0.05 100 WED 12Z 17-JAN 19.7 10.9 10.9 8.9 32003 SN 0.01 88 WED 18Z 17-JAN 20.1 9.5 20.0 15.3 32004 0.00 61 THU 00Z 18-JAN 21.2 16.1 16.1 10.7 32003 SN 0.01 93 THU 06Z 18-JAN 15.5 11.7 12.0 9.7 23002 0.00 47 THU 12Z 18-JAN 12.2 10.2 10.2 8.0 24002 0.00 76 THU 18Z 18-JAN 28.8 10.0 28.8 19.7 28001 0.00 3 FRI 00Z 19-JAN 30.6 20.6 20.6 9.3 18001 0.00 0 FRI 06Z 19-JAN 21.1 19.1 19.5 8.0 05000 0.00 0 FRI 12Z 19-JAN 20.0 19.2 19.7 8.6 24002 0.00 59 FRI 18Z 19-JAN 35.6 19.0 35.6 22.3 25004 0.00 10 SAT 00Z 20-JAN 36.8 28.7 28.9 19.7 22003 0.00 61 SAT 06Z 20-JAN 27.6 23.8 23.8 18.8 20002 0.00 2 SAT 12Z 20-JAN 26.9 23.9 26.9 23.5 23003 0.00 56 SAT 18Z 20-JAN 41.8 26.9 41.8 37.5 24003 0.00 81 SUN 00Z 21-JAN 44.3 33.9 33.9 27.9 09002 0.00 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 45 minutes ago, Bango said: Does anyone have GFS TRI soundings? (Or where one gets it?) From the maps it looked a solid 3 inches with 15 to 20:1 ratios, from roughly hour 66-76. Go to pivotalweather and just click on your location for a given hour and it'll show your skew-t. They also have a ratio map. As he's done already, Jax is always very willing to post the text output for cities too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: Go to pivotalweather and just click on your location for a given hour and it'll show your skew-t. They also have a ratio map. As he's done already, Jax is always very willing to post the text output for cities too! To add what John said,Instantweathermaps.com has the best algorithm of any maps using the GFS and Nam if you're looking at snow totals using these two models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro was .1-.2 as snow for most of the forum area but more from Memphis into Northern Miss to South Arkansas. Went back to the Carolina snow event too. Pops a low off the coast almost miller B fashion. Pretty much in line with the other globals, most would see 1-2 inches, maybe some 3 inch areas, especially far east and far southwest. A few areas of less than an inch towards Chattanooga and those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Snow ratios still looks good,when you get to 18 degrees your ratios are 20:1 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z JAN14 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 14-JAN 19.0 10.6 00005 0.00 0.00 3 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 19.1 15.6 15.6 6.6 04004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 15.5 13.5 13.7 4.5 05004 0.00 0.00 99 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 26.9 13.7 27.3 -1.7 06003 0.00 0.00 74 MON 00Z 15-JAN 31.0 24.6 24.8 3.1 04002 0.00 0.00 97 MON 06Z 15-JAN 27.0 24.3 26.4 -0.8 17004 0.00 0.00 84 MON 12Z 15-JAN 26.6 25.1 25.2 2.3 19006 0.00 0.00 25 MON 18Z 15-JAN 43.3 24.9 43.6 15.4 22009 0.00 0.00 21 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 46.5 34.6 34.3 23.8 29004 0.00 0.00 88 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 34.3 27.0 27.8 23.7 33006 0.00 0.00 98 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 27.9 20.4 20.3 8.3 35007 0.03 0.03 100 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 20.2 18.3 18.7 5.7 33005 0.05 0.05 100 WED 00Z 17-JAN 19.2 15.1 15.3 0.1 34005 0.03 0.03 74 WED 06Z 17-JAN 15.4 10.7 10.7 -5.2 35005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 17-JAN 10.7 8.2 8.2 -4.5 33004 0.00 0.00 5 WED 18Z 17-JAN 23.1 7.7 23.4 2.3 34005 0.00 0.00 31 THU 00Z 18-JAN 25.9 20.1 20.0 5.8 32005 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 18-JAN 20.0 15.5 15.4 6.2 28003 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 18-JAN 15.5 13.9 14.4 4.7 24003 0.00 0.00 0 THU 18Z 18-JAN 33.7 13.9 34.1 0.4 19002 0.00 0.00 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Still looks like a weak system,couple inches somewhere but it's snow and no mixing ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z JAN14 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 14-JAN 17.6 6.7 36008 0.00 0.00 11 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 17.6 13.2 13.2 2.8 02005 0.00 0.00 1 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 13.3 12.4 12.6 2.1 02004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 27.6 12.5 27.8 -2.9 02004 0.00 0.00 99 MON 00Z 15-JAN 30.4 21.7 21.8 -4.1 08003 0.00 0.00 88 MON 06Z 15-JAN 23.6 19.2 22.4 0.9 13002 0.00 0.00 27 MON 12Z 15-JAN 26.7 21.6 26.4 5.8 19003 0.00 0.00 58 MON 18Z 15-JAN 42.2 25.1 42.4 14.5 22008 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 44.6 33.7 33.6 18.5 21006 0.00 0.00 4 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 33.6 28.7 28.6 22.3 22004 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 28.8 24.6 25.7 22.4 04002 0.00 0.00 75 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 33.1 25.6 32.7 21.9 33003 0.01 0.01 98 WED 00Z 17-JAN 32.9 24.2 24.1 18.4 35004 0.09 0.09 99 WED 06Z 17-JAN 24.1 19.0 18.8 10.2 35006 0.04 0.04 98 WED 12Z 17-JAN 18.8 11.4 11.3 -1.2 36006 0.01 0.01 68 WED 18Z 17-JAN 21.3 10.6 21.5 -2.6 35007 0.00 0.00 1 THU 00Z 18-JAN 23.9 18.0 17.9 2.7 35004 0.00 0.00 3 THU 06Z 18-JAN 17.9 14.7 14.7 4.4 02002 0.00 0.00 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 00Z JAN14 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 14-JAN 17.0 6.0 35006 0.00 0.00 11 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 17.0 13.6 13.5 2.0 01004 0.00 0.00 56 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 13.6 11.9 11.9 -0.2 02004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 27.1 11.7 27.4 -7.4 02002 0.00 0.00 100 MON 00Z 15-JAN 30.1 23.3 23.4 -1.2 34001 0.00 0.00 71 MON 06Z 15-JAN 23.6 18.4 19.5 1.4 13006 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 15-JAN 23.2 19.3 22.6 4.9 14003 0.00 0.00 89 MON 18Z 15-JAN 39.3 22.6 39.5 12.7 23005 0.00 0.00 1 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 41.8 31.2 31.5 16.3 21005 0.00 0.00 18 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 31.6 26.7 27.2 16.7 23003 0.00 0.00 4 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 27.4 25.5 25.7 19.3 21003 0.00 0.00 88 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 35.7 25.5 35.7 22.7 27004 0.00 0.00 98 WED 00Z 17-JAN 35.8 28.2 28.1 25.1 28004 0.06 0.06 100 WED 06Z 17-JAN 28.1 21.9 21.8 15.6 35003 0.10 0.10 100 WED 12Z 17-JAN 21.8 15.7 15.5 8.2 35004 0.03 0.03 87 WED 18Z 17-JAN 20.4 13.8 20.5 0.7 31005 0.00 0.00 14 THU 00Z 18-JAN 22.2 16.4 16.4 2.8 33006 0.00 0.00 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 00Z JAN14 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 14-JAN 21.8 9.7 35008 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 21.8 16.3 16.3 5.6 01007 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 16.3 14.8 14.8 2.5 02006 0.00 0.00 82 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 31.0 14.8 31.3 -1.0 02004 0.00 0.00 16 MON 00Z 15-JAN 34.8 26.5 26.3 2.4 06002 0.00 0.00 1 MON 06Z 15-JAN 26.7 23.9 24.8 3.5 20003 0.00 0.00 73 MON 12Z 15-JAN 27.5 24.7 26.5 9.7 18005 0.00 0.00 37 MON 18Z 15-JAN 42.7 26.2 42.9 16.3 20007 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 45.2 34.9 35.0 21.4 20006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 35.0 29.5 29.4 24.0 20004 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 29.8 26.7 27.6 24.6 35004 0.00 0.00 74 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 35.2 27.5 35.0 23.9 34004 0.00 0.00 96 WED 00Z 17-JAN 35.0 25.0 24.9 18.2 34005 0.07 0.07 99 WED 06Z 17-JAN 24.9 18.8 18.6 8.9 34007 0.03 0.03 100 WED 12Z 17-JAN 18.6 11.6 11.6 -1.3 34007 0.00 0.00 5 WED 18Z 17-JAN 24.0 11.3 24.2 -0.5 35008 0.00 0.00 0 THU 00Z 18-JAN 27.2 21.6 21.5 4.6 33007 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 18-JAN 21.5 18.3 18.3 6.0 34004 0.00 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I think this one is thread worthy for future reference sake. I enjoy going back and looking through these threads in summer to be honest. Every global is now on board and the hi-res models in range are also on board with a wide spread 1-3 inch type event for a large portion of the forum. So anyone who'd like can feel free to fire one up imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 06z NAM misses the western areas north of 40 but upped totals for eastern areas. Lots of .2 to even .4 areas that ratio out to 2-4+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 It is the Euro and NAM versus everyone one else. 6z GFS, NAVGEM, CMC, ICON, etc are dry as a bone. The NAM/Euro combo used to be very reliable but of course for us it probably will cave to the rest of the models. I haven’t seen the presentation of the H5 trough change dramatically since yesterday which means we may be honing in on this event. My prediction is a widespread 1-3 inch event from Nashville east to the mountains with favored upslope spots on the Plateau (aka John) and the mountains squeezing out 2-4 of high ratio/fluffy snow. I would include Chatty in this as well. I would guess a dusting to an inch for those places west of Nashville. I still think slightly bigger storm is on the table especially if you trough can swing to a negative tilt in the Plains/Mid South or if there is more energy rounding the base of the trough. But time is running out for major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Probably. We started a thread for the event. When we mention Memphis you can loosely extrapolate your way, with this system only. Welcome to our Region. Come back often! On 01/13/2018 at 12:23 PM, Will (little rock) said: The models look decent for Central-South Arkansas, What are your guy's thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 MRX going 1” or less south of 40, 1 to 1.5 north of 40 in the valley. Higher amounts in the favored locations. They seem to like the Euro/NAM and acknowledge the rise in QPF in all the mods. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Has anyone else noticed the flood the GFS is depicting end of month time period? Is this shown on any other model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Has anyone else noticed the flood the GFS is depicting end of month time period? Is this shown on any other model? That’s a lot of QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Your run of the mill 10 inch rain storm lol. There are serious hurricanes that don’t get close to that...had that been modeled as snow I would of framed it as the most absurd clown map in the history of clowns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bango said: Your run of the mill 10 inch rain storm lol. There are serious hurricanes that don’t get close to that...had that been modeled as snow I would of framed it as the most absurd clown map in the history of clowns... Yea will have to see if that holds. Hopefully that stays all rain. That much moisture as ice or snow would not be good in the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Yea will have to see if that holds. Hopefully that stays all rain. That much moisture as ice or snow would not be good in the South. For example, not sure how the CFS is for reliability, but it is not really indicating any major warmups with some very cold air lurking near the TN Valley though mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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