Stovepipe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Two inches would be amazing considering the crappy regime we’ve been in. I’ll take that in a heartbeat and call it a winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Weeklies looked pretty decent after January. Keep in mind that I generally only comment on the 500 patterns as it has a warm bias at range IMO. There is actually some 2m cold showing...that means it is likely very cold during that time frame. And I give the Weeklies credit...they sniffed out the current pattern. They did try to end it too early. I still have concerns that once the western trough is established that it won't budge as easily as modeled. Looks like Feb 1-8 will be a transition week. If the Euro is being too slow w the trough in the West, it will happen as the month of Jan rolls into Feb. If it is correct, could be later in that first week of Feb. If it is too quick, then mid Feb. I think the Feb 5-7 timeframe is legit. So, how warm will the warm-up be from Jan 20-Feb5? IMO, very warm, but that is certainly not set in stone as the operational global models have been balking at the warm-up. The EPS is bullish and stubborn w the western trough. The GEFS has it to some extent. Yesterday's MJO update...GEFS vs Euro. The GEFS goes into reasonably high amplitude of phase four....the Euro went into the COD. Back to the Weeklies....once the pattern potentially rolls back cold, the ridge reestablishes out West. It begins as an EPO and then transitions to a broad PNA ridge. It "looked" like it might allow split flow if one takes the control into account. Which BTW, the Weeklies' control was stone cold. It went deeply negative w the NAO and was extreme in nature w winter for the East w very little thaw. Understandably, the mean was stubborn w the western trough. But the control places some doubt in my mind as it basically threw the MJO to the wind and just went w a pattern similar to this week. Very warm followed by very cold...and seemingly stormy. Overall, nice teleconnections look coming into focus for early to mid Feb. I will be honest, I am concerned about the warm-up lasting longer than modeled. We have all seen cold modeled to return only to realize it was a red herring. Now, verbatim, it is really tough not to like the look for February on the Weeklies at 500 and from a teleconnection standpoint. Also, looks like the mean(especially the control) likes blocking up top including the unicorn of AN heights over the Davis Straits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Clipper/Arctic Front looks good on 12Z NAM dropping a couple inches or so in its wake. Whats impressive to me is as advertised qpf rates at times this run and others show moderate snow even heavy in pockets with this disturbance as it comes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 It's interesting that the GFS and Euro are digging the trough further and further west and sharper with each new run in the Tue-Wed time period. Maybe we can actually eek out something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS took a big step towards the Euro in getting some Gulf connection then popping a storm, but it's still too late for us, really gives a good snow to North Carolina though. Looks like by next week that the eastern Tennessee Valley from Alabama to Knoxville to Tri-Cities into SE Kentucky may be the only part of the entire south that can realistically see a good snow event that hasn't had one this season provided, Middle Tn does pretty well with the comma head later this afternoon, if not, all them to the southern snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Euro East Tennessee favorable trend continues for Tuesday. As noted before some more moisture is forecast. PVA north does not worry my as much as usual; so cold that a warm nose is unlikely. Still need south PVA to dominate for quality snow. Euro weeklies show new cold the beginning of Feb. I like it. CFS is warm too long, probably MJO issues. A warm period is likely as the MJO goes through warm phases, but it should quickly move along and/or crash. New research shared at AMS shows -QBO enhancing some MJO phases. Might explain some of the back and fourth, but La Nina also. At any rate I'll go more cold early Feb. Finally, the Valley is just now entering our coldest climo. Best snow (any location) is usually after the normal temp chart inflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Yes, the Euro was back to a 1-4 inch event for a large portion of the area, with embedded 4+ areas all the way from Little Rock and south across to Northern Miss. 1-3 across Northern Alabama and the Southern Valley/North Georgia. 2-4 across SE KY, Plateau and Central Valley of East Tn. 4+ across far Eastern areas as they benefit from the storm tracking up the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 hours ago, John1122 said: Yes, the Euro was back to a 1-4 inch event for a large portion of the area, with embedded 4+ areas all the way from Little Rock and south across to Northern Miss. 1-3 across Northern Alabama and the Southern Valley/North Georgia. 2-4 across SE KY, Plateau and Central Valley of East Tn. 4+ across far Eastern areas as they benefit from the storm tracking up the Carolina coast. So, this is kind of off topic but we know that it is going to snow, perhaps, next week but I keep hearing about a pattern flip but then I also see tweets about some type of warming and that it will have ramifications down the road. My question is, are we in a larger pattern of cold east for a week or so, then warm for a day or two then cold again? Sorry this is rambling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 42 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: So, this is kind of off topic but we know that it is going to snow, perhaps, next week but I keep hearing about a pattern flip but then I also see tweets about some type of warming and that it will have ramifications down the road. My question is, are we in a larger pattern of cold east for a week or so, then warm for a day or two then cold again? Sorry this is rambling! Not rambling at all, looks like we may warm for a week or two as next weekend approaches. Could be longer as models tend to try to end patterns to quickly. Hopefully the cold returns in early February, as that is the top month for snow across the forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I’m gearing myself up for disappointment from the Tuesday system. On paper it may work, but in reality clippers just don’t pan out in the southern valley. Too many topographical issues to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: I’m gearing myself up for disappointment from the Tuesday system. On paper it may work, but in reality clippers just don’t pan out in the southern valley. Too many topographical issues to overcome. It's a hybrid, gets sw flow going and pumps moisture up from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I’m gearing myself up for disappointment from the Tuesday system. On paper it may work, but in reality clippers just don’t pan out in the southern valley. Too many topographical issues to overcome. Clippers typically don’t tap the gulf, that’s the difference if it pans out. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 51 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's a hybrid, gets sw flow going and pumps moisture up from there. 45 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Clippers typically don’t tap the gulf, that’s the difference if it pans out. . Fingers crossed! Looking at GFS data we manage to squeeze out 0.05" qpf. Surface temps are around 28-30 so we could get a dusting, but I'm skeptical of much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, dwagner88 said: Fingers crossed! Looking at GFS data we manage to squeeze out 0.05" qpf. Surface temps are around 28-30 so we could get a dusting, but I'm skeptical of much more. The GFS is so far, trailing the Euro on the evolution of the system. If that continues I expect it to increase the moisture output at 00z tonight. The Euro gives Chattanooga .25 or so qpf it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 QPFS looks about the same,orographic places will probably as always do better.Euro today for Cha ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z JAN12 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 12-JAN 57.6 57.1 17009 0.00 0.00 98 FRI 18Z 12-JAN 58.2 54.6 53.8 53.1 21006 0.10 0.00 100 SAT 00Z 13-JAN 53.8 29.6 29.5 23.1 30010 0.06 0.01 100 SAT 06Z 13-JAN 29.7 28.3 28.8 18.9 33011 0.02 0.02 98 SAT 12Z 13-JAN 28.8 25.4 25.3 14.0 35011 0.00 0.00 98 SAT 18Z 13-JAN 30.9 24.4 31.1 12.9 35009 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 00Z 14-JAN 32.8 25.3 25.1 7.2 35008 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 25.1 20.1 20.1 3.1 02007 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 20.1 18.1 18.1 1.9 02006 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 32.4 17.9 32.6 1.9 01003 0.00 0.00 99 MON 00Z 15-JAN 33.8 28.4 28.4 10.9 05002 0.00 0.00 96 MON 06Z 15-JAN 28.4 23.7 24.5 9.4 19004 0.00 0.00 20 MON 12Z 15-JAN 26.8 24.3 25.7 11.2 18004 0.00 0.00 24 MON 18Z 15-JAN 42.1 25.5 42.3 16.9 19007 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 44.0 33.5 33.4 24.1 19005 0.00 0.00 1 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 33.6 30.7 31.2 25.5 19004 0.00 0.00 90 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 31.2 27.0 27.4 24.9 24001 0.00 0.00 85 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 34.3 27.0 32.7 24.0 33005 0.01 0.01 99 WED 00Z 17-JAN 32.7 22.5 22.4 16.1 34006 0.13 0.13 100 WED 06Z 17-JAN 22.4 14.6 14.4 4.9 34007 0.05 0.05 68 WED 12Z 17-JAN 14.4 8.3 8.3 -0.8 33008 0.00 0.00 43 WED 18Z 17-JAN 19.6 7.8 19.9 -2.2 34010 0.00 0.00 0 THU 00Z 18-JAN 22.3 18.5 18.5 5.0 34008 0.00 0.00 33 THU 06Z 18-JAN 18.5 15.8 15.8 8.2 33007 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 18-JAN 15.8 14.6 14.7 7.2 30004 0.00 0.00 0 THU 18Z 18-JAN 32.2 14.5 32.6 0.3 28005 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 19-JAN 37.5 28.9 28.7 1.4 26006 0.00 0.00 20 FRI 06Z 19-JAN 28.8 24.5 24.7 5.4 27005 0.00 0.00 1 FRI 12Z 19-JAN 24.8 22.2 22.4 6.7 26004 0.00 0.00 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 TYS ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z JAN12 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 12-JAN 53.6 53.2 16006 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 12-JAN 57.4 52.7 54.5 54.0 19006 0.25 0.00 97 SAT 00Z 13-JAN 56.6 37.4 37.1 36.2 29007 0.19 0.00 100 SAT 06Z 13-JAN 37.1 29.0 28.8 25.2 33009 0.11 0.08 100 SAT 12Z 13-JAN 28.8 22.0 22.0 12.2 35009 0.02 0.02 98 SAT 18Z 13-JAN 26.4 20.9 26.5 11.2 01008 0.00 0.00 27 SUN 00Z 14-JAN 28.0 21.9 21.8 5.8 00007 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 21.7 16.9 16.8 1.5 02005 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 16.8 15.1 15.3 0.8 03004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 29.1 15.1 29.3 -3.0 01003 0.00 0.00 66 MON 00Z 15-JAN 31.4 26.0 25.9 -0.7 02001 0.00 0.00 99 MON 06Z 15-JAN 25.9 20.9 22.1 4.1 14005 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 15-JAN 24.9 21.1 24.3 7.8 19003 0.00 0.00 77 MON 18Z 15-JAN 41.7 24.2 41.9 14.7 22007 0.00 0.00 60 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 44.2 33.2 33.1 19.0 23005 0.00 0.00 45 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 33.3 29.8 30.2 21.7 22003 0.00 0.00 91 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 30.4 26.3 26.9 22.6 02002 0.00 0.00 82 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 33.8 25.9 31.4 21.6 34005 0.01 0.01 98 WED 00Z 17-JAN 31.6 22.9 22.8 17.4 35005 0.12 0.12 100 WED 06Z 17-JAN 22.8 16.1 16.0 9.3 36006 0.08 0.08 94 WED 12Z 17-JAN 16.0 9.2 9.1 1.2 35006 0.01 0.01 93 WED 18Z 17-JAN 14.2 7.9 14.4 0.2 34006 0.01 0.01 46 THU 00Z 18-JAN 17.8 14.4 15.8 5.0 33006 0.00 0.00 97 THU 06Z 18-JAN 16.2 12.0 12.4 4.3 30004 0.00 0.00 51 THU 12Z 18-JAN 14.2 6.6 6.9 2.8 23004 0.00 0.00 12 THU 18Z 18-JAN 25.5 2.2 25.9 5.7 24006 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 19-JAN 31.8 24.6 24.9 6.3 23006 0.00 0.00 3 FRI 06Z 19-JAN 25.1 18.4 18.2 2.5 22005 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 12Z 19-JAN 20.2 14.4 16.0 2.0 22004 0.00 0.00 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 GFS might be right though,system dont look that strong.GFS TONIGHT almost splits the QPFS IN HALF than the Euro.But the ratios still would be more than 10:1 at times.Looks like snow anyways,that's a start GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z JAN13 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC 2 M SFC SFC SFC 6 HR TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND PCP QPF CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (PCT) SAT 00Z 13-JAN 22.7 18.2 30012 SAT 06Z 13-JAN 25.1 22.7 25.0 20.8 34013 SN 0.02 99 SAT 12Z 13-JAN 25.2 20.8 20.8 15.3 35012 SN 0.01 99 SAT 18Z 13-JAN 23.9 18.7 23.9 18.0 01010 0.00 85 SUN 00Z 14-JAN 25.2 21.3 21.3 14.4 01008 0.00 20 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 21.3 18.6 18.6 13.4 03006 0.00 34 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 18.6 16.5 16.5 11.5 04005 0.00 3 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 28.7 16.4 28.7 15.7 07004 0.00 66 MON 00Z 15-JAN 31.7 25.6 27.3 12.0 05002 0.00 77 MON 06Z 15-JAN 27.8 25.8 26.7 12.8 18004 0.00 82 MON 12Z 15-JAN 28.1 25.5 25.6 12.8 19005 0.00 75 MON 18Z 15-JAN 41.8 25.6 41.8 25.5 22008 0.00 58 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 43.8 32.5 32.5 24.9 28003 0.00 57 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 32.6 26.5 26.5 24.2 35007 SN 0.02 97 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 26.4 18.8 18.9 15.3 34008 SN 0.06 100 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 19.2 16.3 19.1 13.9 34007 SN 0.02 88 WED 00Z 17-JAN 19.8 12.9 12.9 6.7 35007 0.00 5 WED 06Z 17-JAN 12.9 9.0 9.0 4.4 36006 0.00 51 WED 12Z 17-JAN 9.0 7.1 7.1 3.1 00006 0.00 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I'm talking about Tuesdays system also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Clippers typically don’t tap the gulf, that’s the difference if it pans out. . Yeah, but this isn't really a clipper system.It's a reinforcing cold front that's going to crash the temps into single digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I'm just saying,if you look at the 700mb's 12z Tuesday you'll see a cold front basically from Texas into Maine,this really isn't a clipper,it's a front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Clippers typically don’t tap the gulf, that’s the difference if it pans out. . You were right by the way,didnt mean to quote you for any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Snow ratios still look good on tonight's Euro ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z JAN13 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 00Z 13-JAN 22.7 17.4 30011 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 06Z 13-JAN 25.1 22.7 24.6 17.6 33010 0.05 0.05 98 SAT 12Z 13-JAN 25.0 21.0 20.9 10.8 34010 0.00 0.00 70 SAT 18Z 13-JAN 26.8 19.8 27.1 2.9 36008 0.00 0.00 9 SUN 00Z 14-JAN 29.2 23.9 23.8 8.2 35006 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 23.8 19.6 19.5 6.1 00005 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 19.5 17.2 17.1 4.8 03004 0.00 0.00 93 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 29.8 17.1 30.0 0.5 07003 0.00 0.00 95 MON 00Z 15-JAN 32.8 27.9 28.2 5.3 10001 0.00 0.00 19 MON 06Z 15-JAN 29.1 24.6 27.4 4.4 18004 0.00 0.00 93 MON 12Z 15-JAN 27.9 26.0 26.4 11.5 19006 0.00 0.00 94 MON 18Z 15-JAN 43.2 26.1 43.5 15.3 21008 0.00 0.00 84 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 46.2 34.3 34.1 22.0 19006 0.00 0.00 19 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 34.5 30.1 30.0 26.0 33006 0.00 0.00 98 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 30.1 20.0 19.8 11.9 34008 0.10 0.10 100 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 19.8 15.0 15.6 4.1 33006 0.10 0.10 100 WED 00Z 17-JAN 17.8 12.8 12.7 -0.7 33006 0.01 0.01 0 WED 06Z 17-JAN 12.7 6.7 7.1 -6.8 34005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 17-JAN 7.1 4.5 4.7 -8.2 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Getting down to 18F is 20:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Snow ratios still look good on tonight's Euro ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z JAN13 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 00Z 13-JAN 22.7 17.4 30011 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 06Z 13-JAN 25.1 22.7 24.6 17.6 33010 0.05 0.05 98 SAT 12Z 13-JAN 25.0 21.0 20.9 10.8 34010 0.00 0.00 70 SAT 18Z 13-JAN 26.8 19.8 27.1 2.9 36008 0.00 0.00 9 SUN 00Z 14-JAN 29.2 23.9 23.8 8.2 35006 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 23.8 19.6 19.5 6.1 00005 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 19.5 17.2 17.1 4.8 03004 0.00 0.00 93 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 29.8 17.1 30.0 0.5 07003 0.00 0.00 95 MON 00Z 15-JAN 32.8 27.9 28.2 5.3 10001 0.00 0.00 19 MON 06Z 15-JAN 29.1 24.6 27.4 4.4 18004 0.00 0.00 93 MON 12Z 15-JAN 27.9 26.0 26.4 11.5 19006 0.00 0.00 94 MON 18Z 15-JAN 43.2 26.1 43.5 15.3 21008 0.00 0.00 84 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 46.2 34.3 34.1 22.0 19006 0.00 0.00 19 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 34.5 30.1 30.0 26.0 33006 0.00 0.00 98 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 30.1 20.0 19.8 11.9 34008 0.10 0.10 100 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 19.8 15.0 15.6 4.1 33006 0.10 0.10 100 WED 00Z 17-JAN 17.8 12.8 12.7 -0.7 33006 0.01 0.01 0 WED 06Z 17-JAN 12.7 6.7 7.1 -6.8 34005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 17-JAN 7.1 4.5 4.7 -8.2 0.00 Thanks for sharing the euro text man, it's appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 When you get closer to 12F your ratios go to 30:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Stovepipe said: Thanks for sharing the euro text man, it's appreciated. No problem,here's your's,nothing much different ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z JAN13 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 00Z 13-JAN 35.5 34.1 28008 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 06Z 13-JAN 35.5 27.9 28.3 21.8 30006 0.07 0.06 100 SAT 12Z 13-JAN 28.4 22.3 22.2 11.4 36008 0.01 0.01 97 SAT 18Z 13-JAN 26.8 21.6 26.9 11.2 00007 0.00 0.00 44 SUN 00Z 14-JAN 28.4 22.2 22.1 5.6 00007 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 22.1 17.5 17.4 1.8 03005 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 17.4 15.2 15.2 0.6 02004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 28.1 14.9 28.3 -3.5 01003 0.00 0.00 99 MON 00Z 15-JAN 30.3 25.9 26.0 -2.3 04001 0.00 0.00 42 MON 06Z 15-JAN 26.5 19.5 21.4 2.9 17003 0.00 0.00 23 MON 12Z 15-JAN 27.5 21.3 27.5 6.6 19003 0.00 0.00 46 MON 18Z 15-JAN 41.7 25.3 42.0 13.9 22007 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 44.3 33.2 33.1 18.0 23005 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 33.1 29.8 30.5 21.7 21003 0.00 0.00 90 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 30.6 28.5 29.1 23.9 22003 0.00 0.00 92 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 37.0 28.8 34.6 26.4 31005 0.02 0.02 98 WED 00Z 17-JAN 34.6 22.6 22.4 17.7 34005 0.15 0.15 100 WED 06Z 17-JAN 22.4 12.4 12.2 2.9 35006 0.05 0.05 90 WED 12Z 17-JAN 12.2 4.1 4.0 -5.5 35004 0.00 0.00 20 WED 18Z 17-JAN 13.3 2.7 13.5 -4.5 34006 0.00 0.00 13 THU 00Z 18-JAN 16.3 8.0 8.8 -3.8 33006 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 18-JAN 13.6 6.7 11.7 -0.2 23001 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 18-JAN 11.8 9.9 9.9 2.0 21003 0.00 0.00 0 THU 18Z 18-JAN 26.9 4.8 27.3 4.6 24004 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 19-JAN 31.6 21.1 20.6 4.1 20005 0.00 0.00 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Euro still 1-3 inches with a few places maybe getting to 4 with the system Tuesday. .2 to .4 falls as snow in the area. If we can get the good ratios Jax mentioned it'll be a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, John1122 said: Euro still 1-3 inches with a few places maybe getting to 4 with the system Tuesday. .2 to .4 falls as snow in the area. If we can get the good ratios Jax mentioned it'll be a decent event. You should do better than anyone,that isnt shown,these orographic lift places will always do better no matter what's being shown ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV LAT= 35.95 LON= -85.08 ELE= 1880 00Z JAN13 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 00Z 13-JAN 24.7 18.9 29011 0.00 0.00 99 SAT 06Z 13-JAN 25.3 23.4 24.1 17.4 34012 0.04 0.04 100 SAT 12Z 13-JAN 24.1 21.4 21.2 11.9 35010 0.01 0.01 98 SAT 18Z 13-JAN 25.0 19.5 25.1 7.1 35008 0.00 0.00 82 SUN 00Z 14-JAN 26.2 20.3 20.3 1.3 35007 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 20.3 17.3 17.2 -1.6 03005 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 17.2 14.7 14.6 -2.5 04005 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 27.9 14.4 28.2 -8.0 02003 0.00 0.00 98 MON 00Z 15-JAN 30.5 24.2 24.3 -3.6 11003 0.00 0.00 26 MON 06Z 15-JAN 24.4 21.7 22.8 -0.7 18005 0.00 0.00 80 MON 12Z 15-JAN 27.1 22.8 25.6 3.6 19006 0.00 0.00 51 MON 18Z 15-JAN 40.3 25.3 40.5 10.4 21008 0.00 0.00 24 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 43.1 31.3 31.1 18.0 19006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 31.8 29.1 31.2 22.5 20006 0.00 0.00 90 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 31.2 28.0 28.1 24.6 29003 0.02 0.02 98 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 28.5 21.9 22.0 12.8 32006 0.08 0.08 99 WED 00Z 17-JAN 22.0 15.2 15.0 6.7 32007 0.09 0.09 83 WED 06Z 17-JAN 15.0 4.4 4.4 -3.8 34006 0.00 0.00 2 WED 12Z 17-JAN 4.4 1.8 1.8 -8.0 33007 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 17-JAN 13.4 1.3 13.7 -4.1 32009 0.00 0.00 29 THU 00Z 18-JAN 17.0 12.8 12.8 1.0 32007 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 18-JAN 12.8 10.7 10.7 2.0 31005 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 18-JAN 11.2 10.4 11.1 3.5 28004 0.00 0.00 0 THU 18Z 18-JAN 31.3 10.9 31.7 -2.1 27005 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 19-JAN 34.6 25.4 25.3 0.8 25006 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 06Z 19-JAN 25.4 23.3 24.0 -1.2 25005 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 12Z 19-JAN 24.1 21.7 21.8 -0.7 21004 0.00 0.00 45 FRI 18Z 19-JAN 44.2 21.5 44.4 -9.0 25004 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 20-JAN 47.4 31.8 31.6 7.0 18005 0.00 0.00 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: No problem,here's your's,nothing much different ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z JAN13 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 00Z 13-JAN 35.5 34.1 28008 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 06Z 13-JAN 35.5 27.9 28.3 21.8 30006 0.07 0.06 100 SAT 12Z 13-JAN 28.4 22.3 22.2 11.4 36008 0.01 0.01 97 SAT 18Z 13-JAN 26.8 21.6 26.9 11.2 00007 0.00 0.00 44 SUN 00Z 14-JAN 28.4 22.2 22.1 5.6 00007 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 14-JAN 22.1 17.5 17.4 1.8 03005 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 14-JAN 17.4 15.2 15.2 0.6 02004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 14-JAN 28.1 14.9 28.3 -3.5 01003 0.00 0.00 99 MON 00Z 15-JAN 30.3 25.9 26.0 -2.3 04001 0.00 0.00 42 MON 06Z 15-JAN 26.5 19.5 21.4 2.9 17003 0.00 0.00 23 MON 12Z 15-JAN 27.5 21.3 27.5 6.6 19003 0.00 0.00 46 MON 18Z 15-JAN 41.7 25.3 42.0 13.9 22007 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 16-JAN 44.3 33.2 33.1 18.0 23005 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 16-JAN 33.1 29.8 30.5 21.7 21003 0.00 0.00 90 TUE 12Z 16-JAN 30.6 28.5 29.1 23.9 22003 0.00 0.00 92 TUE 18Z 16-JAN 37.0 28.8 34.6 26.4 31005 0.02 0.02 98 WED 00Z 17-JAN 34.6 22.6 22.4 17.7 34005 0.15 0.15 100 WED 06Z 17-JAN 22.4 12.4 12.2 2.9 35006 0.05 0.05 90 WED 12Z 17-JAN 12.2 4.1 4.0 -5.5 35004 0.00 0.00 20 WED 18Z 17-JAN 13.3 2.7 13.5 -4.5 34006 0.00 0.00 13 THU 00Z 18-JAN 16.3 8.0 8.8 -3.8 33006 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 18-JAN 13.6 6.7 11.7 -0.2 23001 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 18-JAN 11.8 9.9 9.9 2.0 21003 0.00 0.00 0 THU 18Z 18-JAN 26.9 4.8 27.3 4.6 24004 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 19-JAN 31.6 21.1 20.6 4.1 20005 0.00 0.00 0 My chickens are not going to be happy about this. Not one bit, that is crazy cold. I'm going to take Coach's advice and wrap some tarps around the coop and just swap water out a couple times a day. I can't do another stint of chickens in the garage. That cage got RIPE last week son... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 15 hours ago, weathertree4u said: So, this is kind of off topic but we know that it is going to snow, perhaps, next week but I keep hearing about a pattern flip but then I also see tweets about some type of warming and that it will have ramifications down the road. My question is, are we in a larger pattern of cold east for a week or so, then warm for a day or two then cold again? Sorry this is rambling! Flip or not to flip...that is the question. The trough should go into the West after the upcoming week with a BIG warmup here. We broke a record high at TRI a few days ago...that kind of warm air mass. Now, is that trough a flip or just a temporary change before reverting back to the trough in the East? There are models that put the trough in the West and lock it in for several weeks...the JAMSTEC might be one of those as it is my understanding that it keeps us in the warm phases of the MJO. The Weeklies step down to cold beginning the first week of Feb. The 0z EPS locks the ridge out West during the 10-15 day time frame...but it should break down about a week after that if the past Weeklies were right. The 0z GEPS is very warm. The 6z GEFS is less bullish. So, looks like a trough in the West gets established for a couple of weeks which will lead to very warm temps. I still like the Jan 20 - Feb 5 time frame. There is always a chance the models are incorrect, and the 6z GEFS shows exactly how to get cold when it should be warm. But the EPS has been pretty solid this winter as have the Weeklies. I think for the time frame that I mentioned above, +5 to +10 seems about right. So is a 14-21 day warm spell a flip? Probably not. But if it locks in, it would be spring here. I think that unlikely since the base state for winter has been cold so far...and since the Weeklies, which have been very good this winter, do show the trough at 500 returning. Add in low solar and the -QBO, and high latitude blocking seems likely to continue. Those ideas have served us well so far. So, I think "thaw" is probably a good term with the NA pattern balaning out the pattern with cold and heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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